March 5, 2020
Summary: As of 1:00pm, many locations on the valley floor are near the 80 degree mark and will end up in the low to mid 80s by the time all is said and done. Temperatures are generally 2 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. A ridge of high pressure at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere is essentially right above us this afternoon with a weak westerly flow aloft. The high will begin to shift eastward Friday ahead of a weakening trough of low pressure that will move through central California by midday Saturday with only a minimal chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north.
Sunday and Sunday night will be dry, then a large low will show up Sunday off the California coast. It will shift eastward towards the central and southern California coasts Monday. The newest model runs speed up th emotion of this storm with rain possibly arriving in central California Monday afternoon with precipitation continuing through Wednesday morning. with the quicker forward speed of this storm, precipitation will already be tapering off by Wednesday afternoon.
Models still show that pineapple connection, however, models are indicating the moisture will flow in from the southwest primarily from the Kern County mountains south. Models also indicate the center of circulation will move on shore Tuesday night, moving across Kern County Wednesday morning. So, there is plenty of model differences on how much precipitation this storm will have for central California. If models are correct, most of northern California will completely miss out on this event.
Beginning late Wednesday, high pressure will begin building over the eastern Pacific and blocking further storminess at least through the end of next week.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday night. a small chance of light showers Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly north of Fresno County. Mostly to partly cloudy Saturday night through Sunday night. mostly cloudy Monday with a chance of rain by evening. Periods of rain likely Tuesday into Wednesday morning. a chance of showers for a time Wednesday afternoon. Partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 42/76/43/63 | Reedley 43/77/45/62 | Dinuba 42/77/44/62 | |
| Porterville 42/78/44/63 | Lindsay 41/78/43/63 | Delano 44/79/45/64 | |
| Bakersfield 52/81/47/64 | Taft 53/79/48/63 | Arvin 47/80/45/64 | |
| Lamont 47/79/45/64 | Pixley 43/79/44/63 | Tulare 42/77/43/62 | |
| Woodlake 41/78/43/62 | Hanford 44/78/44/63 | Orosi 41/78/43/63 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions tonight and again tomorrow night. winds late Friday afternoon and evening will be generally at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature. Winds Saturday through Sunday night will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH. Winds Sunday will be generally variable to near 12 MPH.
Rain: The chance of rain on Saturday appears quite minimal and mainly from Fresno County northward. If measurable rain does occur, expect less than .10. the best chance of showers will be Saturday afternoon through the evening hours. For now, it appears Sunday through Monday morning will be dry.
We’re still studying models on the potential for rain from late Monday through at least Wednesday morning. some models place the center of circulation in southern Kern County by midday Wednesday. the configuration also favors a pineapple connection, but unfortunately this moist flow will likely head for southern California from the Kern County mountains south. If it plays out this way, southern California will receive significant amounts of rain with much lighter amounts for central California.
At this time there are too many differences on models, so a forecast of rain from any time late Monday through most of Wednesday seems appropriate. The only question is how much. A blocking ridge of upper level high pressure will follow Wednesday night for a return to a dry weather pattern.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Next report: March 6/morning