March 9, 2020
Summary: The center of circulation of a warm Pacific storm has drifted southward. If anything, it has actually drifted a bit further off shore so rain is unlikely tonight. the low is expected to move towards the south/central coast Tuesday. The counterclockwise circulation around the low will spread precipitation into the valley Tuesday. There is high potential for heavy amounts of rain over the Kern County mountains and deserts. Heaviest precipitation on the valley floor will likely be in Kern County. Essentially, the further north you progress, the lighter rainfall amounts will be. Models show a great deal of instability Tuesday and Tuesday night which could result in isolated thunderstorms over the south valley, in which case locally heavy rain would be possible. By Tuesday evening, the center of circulation will be roughly 100 miles to the west/southwest of Vandenberg.
The northern limit of the rain shield appears to be at a Monterey/Merced line. This storm is projected to only very slowly move southeastward off the southern California coast Wednesday and Thursday, maintaining active weather south of Kern County. It’ll be Thursday night and Friday morning before the center of circulation drags across northern Baja then eventually into the Desert Southwest.
The chance of rain will decrease Wednesday afternoon with only a minimal chance of showers Wednesday night, mainly in Kern County. A weak area of high pressure will move overhead Thursday through Saturday for dry weather with somewhat above average temperatures.
A colder pattern definitely is on the horizon as a cold low with origins in western Canada will drop southward, moving into northern California Sunday and possibly into central California Monday. This will result in a chance o f light showers, especially Sunday night and Monday, with the greatest possibility of precipitation being over the mountain areas. By Tuesday, this feature will move into Nevada, returning central California to a dry pattern once again. However, below average temperatures will continue for several days.
Forecast: Cloudy tonight. periods of rain Tuesday and Tuesday night with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Showers Wednesday, mainly during the morning. a slight chance of showers Wednesday night, mainly in Kern County. Partly cloudy Thursday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday night through Saturday. increasing cloudiness Saturday night. a slight chance of showers by Sunday afternoon with a chance of light showers Sunday night and Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 47/68/49/69 | Reedley 48/68/50/70 | Dinuba 47/67/49/69 | |
| Porterville 49/69/50/70 | Lindsay 48/69/49/70 | Delano 50/69/51/69 | |
| Bakersfield 53/70/52/69 | Taft 53/69/53/69 | Arvin 48/68/50/69 | |
| Lamont 49/69/51/70 | Pixley 49/68/50/70 | Tulare 47/67/49/69 | |
| Woodlake 47/68/49/69 | Hanford 48/68/50/70 | Orosi 47/67/49/69 | |
Winds: Winds tonight will be mainly out of the east or southeast at 5 to 12 MPH. Winds Tuesday through Wednesday will be mainly out of the east or southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts near the base of the Tehachapi. Winds Wednesday night through Thursday will be variable to 12 MPH.
Rain: This storm, as expected, is proving to be a challenge. So many difficulties on nailing down timing and rainfall amounts. From Fresno County north, precipitation is expected to be minimal with greater precipitation totals further south. Highest amounts are expected to be in Kern County. This storm has actually stalled well off the southcentral coast, but it will make its move towards the coast tonight and Tuesday. I’m going to take the chance of rain out of the forecast for tonight. precipitation will spread from south to north across the southern half of the valley Tuesday and Tuesday night. embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.
Showers are likely Wednesday, especially during the first half of the day, diminishing from north to south later in the afternoon with only a minimal chance of showers Wednesday night, mainly in Kern County.
I’ll stick with the rainfall total premises of .25 to .50 over the Kern County portion of the valley floor with upwards of .33 in Kings and Tulare Counties and less than .25 in Fresno County and even less in Madera County.
Dry weather will prevail Thursday through Saturday night. a cold and moisture starved low will drop over northern and central California Sunday and Monday for a chance of light showers, mainly Sunday night and Monday. The low will probably move into Nevada Tuesday. For now, the rest of next week looks dry.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Next report: March 10/morning