March 10, 2020
Summary: The center of circulation of a large and warm low pressure system is roughly 250 miles to the west of Vandenberg. Showers spread rapidly over southern California overnight. Showers are now spilling over the Kern County mountains and into the Kern County portion of the valley floor. They will continue to move northward over the remainder of the growing area this morning. the pineapple connection associated with this storm is largely moving into northern Baja then northeastward into Arizona. This storm will be very tricky to forecast from this point on as, even at this late date, there are model variations on the exact path. Some models indicate the low will stall just west of the Santa Barbara coastline Wednesday, drifting slowly southeastward along the southern California coast Wednesday night and Thursday. It will finally move inland through northern Baja Thursday night and Friday morning. models continue to indicate the potential for heavy amounts of precipitation over the Kern County mountains and deserts with some of this energy spilling into the southern San Joaquin Valley. Models also indicate the dynamics are strong, meaning there will be a chance of isolated thunderstorms over the southern San Joaquin Valley both this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon.
As the low pulls southeastward, the chance of rain will end by Wednesday evening. Weak upper level high pressure will build in from the west Thursday through Friday night for dry weather and pleasant temperatures. Models also vary on the path of a low pressure system as it develops over western Canada Friday. From there, it will drop southward, reaching northern California Saturday night. some models show the path moving a bit further west, putting a good portion of the circulation over the Pacific Ocean. If it pans out this way, the chance of showers will be higher, even over the valley floor, especially Sunday afternoon through Monday.
As the storm shifts eastward Tuesday, a north or possibly north/northwest flow will develop, pumping colder air into California. This will lead to a prolonged period of below average temperatures. For now, I don’t see frost on the horizon, but it is a pattern worth monitoring as we move through the next several days.
Forecast: Periods of showers through Wednesday morning with a chance of showers Wednesday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, mainly south of Fresno County, this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon. Partly cloudy Wednesday night with a slight chance of showers in Kern County. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Saturday. partly cloudy Saturday night. increasing cloudiness Sunday with a chance of light showers. The chance of light showers will continue Sunday night and Monday. Partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday.
Short Term:
Madera 68/50/69/48/71 | Reedley 70/50/70/48/72 | Dinuba 68/49/69/47/71 | |
Porterville 71/51/70/47/72 | Lindsay 71/49/69/47/72 | Delano 71/51/68/50/73 | |
Bakersfield 71/53/68/51/72 | Taft 70/53/67/52/72 | Arvin 70/53/69/50/72 | |
Lamont 71/52/68/51/72 | Pixley 70/50/70/47/72 | Tulare 68/48/69/47/71 | |
Woodlake 69/49/69/47/72 | Hanford 70/51/69/48/72 | Orosi 68/49/69/46/71 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Friday
Mostly clear 45/73 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 47/65 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 43/63 |
Monday
Chance of showers 38/59 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 36/61 |
Two Week Outlook: March 17 through March 23: This model continues to show above average precipitation over the southern half of California. the general pattern aloft will be out of the north to northwest. Temperatures will generally be below average during this time frame.
March: This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far. Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S. Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds will mainly be out of the east to southeast at 5 to 12 MPH through Wednesday with stronger gusts possible near showers. Winds Wednesday night through Friday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours.
Rain Discussion: As of 7:00am, showers were finally working their way from north to south into the Kern County portion of the valley. Showers were widespread over southern California and northern Baja. The counterclockwise circulation around the off shore storm will rotate showers from south to north into the valley through Wednesday morning. once the daytime heating process gets revved up, isolated thunderstorms will be possible as models indicate the atmosphere’s dynamics are strong. Heaviest precipitation will be south of Fresno County and especially in Kern County. I still believe it’s possible that .25 to .50 could accumulate between now and Wednesday over the valley portion of Kern County. With some luck, possibly .25 to .33 in Kings and Tulare Counties. No more than a tenth or two is anticipated in Madera and Fresno Counties.
Showers will diminish from northwest to southeast by late Wednesday afternoon or evening. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the south valley this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon. Small hail is unlikely with these storms due to the subtropical connection.
Dry weather will prevail Thursday through Saturday night. models vary widely on the path of a cold low which will develop over western Canada then drop southward into northern California Saturday night. the GFS models tracks the storm just off shore, meaning the circulation with be over water, increasing the chance of showers. The best chance will be later Sunday through Monday. After Monday night, dry weather will return quite possibly for the remainder of next week.
Frost Discussion: A cold low will drop southward from western Canada into California early next week. A cold northerly flow will wrap around the back side of this low as it moves into Nevada, ushering in a prolonged period of below average temperatures. For now, I don’t see frost becoming an issue, but as we approach next week this pattern will need to be carefully scrutinized.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern, low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 50%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 55%/95%
Actual Humidity range March 9, 2020: Delano, 79%/37% Porterville, 91%/34%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 50%. Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .89, Parlier .80, Blackwell Corner .95, Arvin .97, Orange Cove .86, Porterville .92, Delano .92. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 60, Blackwell 58, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 59, Delano 55
Record Temperatures: 82/31. Average Temperatures: 67/42
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1804 -450
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 55.9. +1.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or – 3.54 or -4.79. Month to Date: .00 -.64
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.84, or -1.90. Month to Date: .00 -.38
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967, Parlier 1035, Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:15, Sunset: 7:03 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:47
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 68 / 47 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 66 / 43 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 69 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 68 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 68 / 42 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 69 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 66 / 42 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1651 / 65 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 68 / 40 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1650 / 65 / 48 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 66 / 51 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.43 51 14.00 130 10.73 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 40 10.74 110 9.77 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.74 62 11.05 120 9.24 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.91 32 8.66 95 9.08 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 42 8.89 107 8.33 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 41 7.23 96 7.57 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.84 60 5.80 122 4.74 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.32 35 7.41 199 3.72 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 6.04 62 11.16 115 9.74 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.64 67 13.34 135 9.87 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.04 4.92 46 13.56 127 10.69 13.95
Next report: March 10/afternoon