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Forecast

March 11, 2020/pm update

March 11, 2020

Summary: It is most unusual for Fresno and Bakersfield to have almost the same amount of rain, especially this late in the rainfall season.  Currently, the Fresno Air Terminal has recorded 3.65 since October 1 while Bakersfield has recorded 3.50 after the heavy rain recorded yesterday.  That’s indicative of this rainfall season with rainfall amounts of less than half of average over the northern half of California while southern California, in many instances, is just marginally below average.

 

The center of circulation of our off shore low has not moved much and is located just to the west/southwest of Vandenberg.  Almost all the precipitation is right around the core of this storm with showers running from southeast to northwest through Ventura, Santa Barbara, and southern San Luis Obispo Counties.  As the low drifts slowly southeastward overnight, all chances of rain on the valley floor will end.  Models do show a new slug of subtropical moisture surging northeastward into southern California Thursday afternoon and night.  it’ll be too far to the south to have much impact on central California.  Dry weather will prevail Thursday through Saturday.

 

Models continue to show the development of a low center just west of the British Columbia coast Friday.  It’s projected to slide southward to just off the coast of Crescent City by Sunday morning and just west of San Francisco by early Monday morning.  it could be near Santa Maria by Tuesday morning.  the pool of air associated with this storm will be chilly with snow levels dropping to 3,000 to 4,000 feet by early Monday.  Even though the moisture field with this system will be fairly limited, the chance for light showers is relatively high beginning Sunday and continuing through at least Tuesday.  Most models don’t even show the low moving inland until Wednesday, so the chance of showers will begin Sunday and continue through Tuesday night, possibly even into Wednesday.  temperatures will fall below average.  For now, frost is not anticipated.  Even so, a clear night in there could see temperatures down into the mid to upper 30s.

 

Later next week, the pattern is rather ill defined with no really big player to grab onto.  For now, the second half of next week appears dry.

 

Forecast: Variable cloudiness south of Fresno County tonight.  mostly clear from Fresno County north.  Partly cloudy in Kern County Thursday.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy elsewhere.  Mostly clear Thursday night through Friday night.  partly cloudy Saturday.  increasing cloudiness Saturday night.  light showers at times will be likely Sunday through Tuesday night.  a slight chance of showers Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 44/72/44/73 Reedley 43/73/44/73 Dinuba 42/72/43/72
Porterville 43/74/44/74 Lindsay 41/73/43/74 Delano 50/72/48/74
Bakersfield 52/73/52/74 Taft 53/72/53/74 Arvin 48/73/48/75
Lamont 48/72/49/75 Pixley 44/73/44/74 Tulare 42/72/43/73
Woodlake 41/72/43/73 Hanford 44/73/44/74 Orosi 41/72/42/73

 

Winds: Winds will be generally variable tonight and Thursday at no more than 10 MPH.  Winds Thursday night through Friday night will be generally no more than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.  By Saturday afternoon, winds will be out of the west or northwest at around 10 to 20 MPH.

 

Rain: There is a minimal chance of showers neaer the base of the Kern County mountains this evening.  Otherwise, expect dry weather tonight through Saturday.  light rain and snow showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada Saturday night.  there will be the likelihood of light showers at any time Sunday through Tuesday night with even a slight chance Wednesday due to a cold very slow moving low pressure system.  This far out, it appears rainfall amounts from Sunday through Tuesday night will be generally less than .25 at most locations.  The second half of next week will more than likely be dry.

 

Frost Discussion:  All locations will be above freezing for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

Next report: March 12/morning