March 11, 2020
Summary: Showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight dropped significant amounts of precipitation over Kern County with considerably less further north. Several locations eclipsed the .50 mark. Individual rainfall amounts are shown below in the rainfall section.
The center of circulation of the low is just off shore from Vandenberg this morning. the low will not move much over the next 12 hours or so. When it does, it will move slowly southeastward, finally moving inland through southern California and northern Baja Thursday night. models are showing a temporary lull in the action over southern California today but then show another slug of subtropical moisture moving from southwest to northeast across southern California Thursday and Thursday night for another potential round of locally heavy precipitation from the Kern County mountains south. However, it appears central California will remain dry with a minimal chance of showers Thursday over the valley portion of Kern County.
For today, once the daytime heating process gets underway, which will destabilize the atmosphere, more showers will break out with possibly another round of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Weak high pressure will fill into northern and central California Thursday through Friday night. a cold low will drop southward right along the coast of British Columbia, centering near northwest California Saturday night and near the Bay Area Sunday night. most of the models are now tracking the system southward just off shore which will give a considerably better chance of showers Sunday through Monday night.
On Tuesday, the low will open up into a broad trough, keeping a small chance of showers in the forecast mainly over the mountain areas. This system will be a cold one with snow levels dropping possibly down to 3,000 to 4,000 feet or so by Monday. A northerly flow will wrap around the western flank of the storm, pumping colder air into California for much of next week. By late next week, a weak low shows up well off the central coast but will be too far off shore to provide precipitation.
Forecast: Scattered showers today with a chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. A chance of showers tonight and Thursday in Kern County with dry weather elsewhere. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday night through Friday. Partly cloudy Saturday. increasing cloudiness Saturday night. a chance of showers Sunday morning. showers likely Sunday afternoon through Monday. A chance of showers Monday night and Tuesday. Partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 68/45/73/44/74 | Reedley 69/44/73/44/74 | Dinuba 68/44/72/44/72 | |
| Porterville 69/43/73/44/75 | Lindsay 69/43/73/44/73 | Delano 69/46/72/47/75 | |
| Bakersfield 68/52/72/53/75 | Taft 68/53/72/53/74 | Arvin 68/50/71/51/75 | |
| Lamont 69/50/72/53/74 | Pixley 69/47/71/49/74 | Tulare 68/44/72/44/73 | |
| Woodlake 67/43/72/44/72 | Hanford 68/45/72/45/74 | Orosi 67/43/72/45/72 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Partly cloudy 43/66 |
Sunday
Showers likely 42/59 |
Monday
Showers likely 41/61 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 39/62 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 38/62 |
Two Week Outlook: March 18 through March 24: This model continues to show above average precipitation over the southern half of California. the general pattern aloft will be out of the north to northwest. Temperatures will generally be below average during this time frame.
March: This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far. Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S. Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds today will be variable to 12 MPH. Winds tonight through Friday night will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours. Winds later Saturday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH.
Rain Discussion: Significant amounts of rain occurred overnight, especially over Kern County. The following are precipitation totals ending at 6:00 this morning. Stratford .24, Parlier .12, Blackwell.55, Arvin .09, Orange Cove .06, Porterville .15, Delano .53, Bakersfield .67, Buttonwillow .60, Belridge .42, Exeter .11, Visalia .36, Hanford .28, Lemoore .22, Fresno .13, Madera .12, and Kettleman .46.
For the remainder of the day, there will be a chance of scattered showers. Once the daytime heating process gets underway, isolated thunderstorms will be possible from late morning through the afternoon hours. Dry weather will return tonight north of Kern County but a new surge of subtropical moisture will move into southern California Thursday and Thursday night, so I want to keep a minimal chance of showers in the forecast over Kern County into Thursday morning. isolated thunderstorms are possible from late this morning through the afternoon hours. Most locations from this point on will record less than .10, however, where thunderstorms occur more than .25 is possible.
Dry weather will prevail Thursday night through Saturday night. the next storm of note is much colder and will result in an increasing likelihood of showers Sunday through Monday. It’s possible showers could last into Tuesday as the storm moves into southern California. A dry weather pattern will return after that.
Frost Discussion: Expect above freezing conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern, low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 60%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 60%/95%
Actual Humidity range March 10, 2020: Delano, 96%/47% Porterville, 97%/31%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .84, Parlier .75, Blackwell Corner .86, Arvin .96, Orange Cove .85, Porterville .87, Delano .86. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 60, Blackwell 58, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 59, Delano 56
Record Temperatures: 86/30. Average Temperatures: 67/42
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1811 -453
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 56.1. +2.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or – 3.65 or -4.75. Month to Date: .11 -.60
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 3.50, or -1.28. Month to Date: .66 +.24
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967, Parlier 1035, Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:13 Sunset: 7:04 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:48
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 59 / 49 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 59 / 42 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 70 / 50 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 60 / 46 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 70 / 47 / 0.01 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1619 / 59 / 53 / 0.02 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DHM / 70 / 46 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1650 / 65 / 48 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DHM / 73 / 46 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1654 / 68 / 53 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 64 / 50 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.43 50 14.00 130 10.80 14.06
MODESTO T 3.92 40 10.76 109 9.85 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.74 62 11.05 119 9.32 12.50
MADERA T 2.91 32 8.66 95 9.16 12.02
FRESNO T 3.54 42 8.89 106 8.40 11.50
HANFORD T 3.12 41 7.23 95 7.63 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.02 2.86 60 5.80 121 4.78 6.47
BISHOP 0.01 1.33 36 7.41 198 3.74 5.18
SALINAS 0.01 6.05 62 11.51 117 9.82 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.39 7.03 71 13.34 134 9.97 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.24 5.16 48 13.56 126 10.79 13.95
Next report: March 11/afternoon