March 12, 2020
Summary: We will still have to deal with a low pressure system located off the southern California coast through tonight, at least over Kern County. The center of circulation of this storm is just southwest of Los Angeles this morning. the counter clockwise circulation around the low is transporting another surge of moisture northward into southern California. Showers have spread as far north as the Riverside/San Bernardino County line. Models show this surge moving into the Kern County mountains and deserts this afternoon, possibly spilling into the Kern County portion of the valley floor. A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through tonight south of the Tulare/Kern County line. The remainder of the growing area will remain dry with considerable amounts of sunshine and warm temperatures.
The low will finally open up and move through extreme southern California and northern Baja tonight and Friday morning. almost as quickly as this storm moves out, we’ll see a developing northerly system just off the British Columbia coast. It will slide southward off the northwest California coast by midday Sunday then just west of San Francisco by midday Monday. It will be hanging around off the central coast by Tuesday, finally moving inland Wednesday.
The chance of showers will begin to increase over the Sierra Nevada as early as late Saturday night. an increasing chance of showers will begin Sunday over the valley floor and will continue on and off through Tuesday night. precipitation amounts with this storm are expected to be generally light with most locations recording less than .25 but with heavier amounts over the mountain areas.
The pool of air associated with the low originated in the northern regions, so snow levels will drop to around 4,000 feet by Monday, possibly even a little lower. We’ll keep a slight chance of showers in the forecast for Wednesday as the low finally opens up and moves into Nevada. A chilly north/northwest flow will follow, resulting in below average temperatures for much of next week. The fact that cloud cover and unsettled conditions will prevail for much of the period leads me to believe frost will not be a factor.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through tonight north of Kern County. Variable cloudiness over Kern County with a risk of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Mostly clear Friday and Friday night. partly cloudy Saturday. increasing cloudiness Saturday night. mostly cloudy Sunday through Tuesday with light showers at times. A chance of showers Tuesday night. a slight chance of showers Wednesday. partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 74/45/74/46/65 | Reedley 74/44/74/46/66 | Dinuba 73/43/73/45/65 | |
| Porterville 75/44/76/45/67 | Lindsay 75/43/75/46/66 | Delano 74/46/74/46/66 | |
| Bakersfield 71/55/75/50/67 | Taft 73/55/75/52/68 | Arvin 70/51/75/47/68 | |
| Lamont 72/52/75/48/68 | Pixley 75/45/74/56/66 | Tulare 74/43/74/45/65 | |
| Woodlake 73/43/74/45/65 | Hanford 75/46/74/46/66 | Orosi 73/43/74/44/65 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Chance of showers 44/65 |
Monday
Showers likely 45/61 |
Tuesday
Showers likely 42/60 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 39/62 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 37/65 |
Two Week Outlook: March 18 through March 24: This model continues to show above average precipitation over the southern half of California. the general pattern aloft will be out of the north to northwest. Temperatures will generally be below average during this time frame.
March: This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far. Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S. Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be variable to 12 MPH today and generally less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions tonight. winds Friday and Friday night will be generally at or less than 10 MPH. later Saturday through Sunday, there will be periods of winds mainly out of the west to northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry weather through Saturday night north of Kern County. The valley portion of Kern County will be on the far northern fringe of another surge of moisture moving north/northwest through southern California. This moisture will spread over the Kern County mountains and deserts this afternoon with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms spilling into the Kern County portion of the valley floor this afternoon and tonight. if precipitation occurs at all, most locations will record less than .10, however isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, so quarter inch plus totals are possible. In Kern County, Friday through Saturday night will be dry.
A horse of a different color will be off the northwest California coast by midday Sunday and just weste of the Bay Area by midday Monday. It could be off the central coast by Tuesday. This storm will pinwheel bands of showers over central California from time to time from Sunday through Tuesday night. precipitation amounts are expected to be generally less than .25. the low will finally move into Nevada Wednesday.
The pattern later next week is somewhat inconclusive on models. At this time we’ll go with a dry forecast for the remainder of next week.
Frost Discussion: Expect above freezing conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern, low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 60%/95%
Actual Humidity range March 11, 2020: Delano, 99%/64% Porterville, 99%/57%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .80, Parlier .75, Blackwell Corner .83, Arvin .90, Orange Cove .83, Porterville .81, Delano .81. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 61, Blackwell 58, Arvin, 60, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 60, Delano 56
Record Temperatures: 84/28. Average Temperatures: 67/42
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1815 -459
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 56.6. +2.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or – 3.70 or -4.78. Month to Date: .16 -.63
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 3.51, or -1.32. Month to Date: .67 +.20
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967, Parlier 1035, Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:12, Sunset: 7:05 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:51
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 73 / 46 / 0.13 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 71 / 49 / 0.23 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 72 / 54 / 0.16 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 70 / 50 / 0.28 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 69 / 47 / 0.22 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 67 / 54 / 0.65 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 68 / 52 / 0.36 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1650 / 70 / 47 / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 69 / 51 / 0.11 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1651 / 62 / 50 / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 71 / 49 / M /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.43 50 14.00 129 10.88 14.06
MODESTO T 3.92 40 10.76 108 9.92 13.11
MERCED 0.10 5.87 63 11.05 118 9.39 12.50
MADERA 0.11 3.14 34 8.66 94 9.22 12.02
FRESNO 0.05 3.70 44 8.89 105 8.48 11.50
HANFORD 0.01 3.40 44 7.23 94 7.68 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.01 3.51 73 5.80 120 4.83 6.47
BISHOP 0.02 1.53 41 7.41 197 3.76 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 6.12 62 11.51 116 9.91 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.20 7.29 72 13.34 132 10.07 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.71 5.87 54 13.56 125 10.89 13.95
Next report: March 12/afternoon