Summary: Light showers have spread down to a Monterey/Modesto/Yosemite line. The main area of cold low pressure is centered roughly 200 miles west of the California/Oregon border. This storm is forecast to sink southward, centering just west of the Bay Area early Monday morning. it appears most, if not all, of the precipitation will remain from Fresno County northward tonight and Sunday. A strong southwesterly flow flanked underneath the storm system will create a rain shadow along the west side and in the south valley. Rain will encompass the entire valley Monday through Tuesday, but that rain shadow will still be zapping rainfall amounts along the west side and in Kern County. The storm will slide to the south off the central coast Tuesday night then will shift inland into southern California Wednesday, which is a bit quicker than previously thought. With that in mind, the chance of rain Wednesday, especially north of Kern County, appears unlikely.
Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Monday, but more especially Tuesday afternoon when the coldest and most unstable portion of the storm passes through. Dry but cool weather will prevail Wednesday night through Friday.
The next low will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and will move southward off the California coast Friday night through the following weekend. The main question with this system will be how far off shore the low tracks. On paper, the system looks to be pretty fragmented so I believe there’s just a low chance of precipitation for Saturday through Monday.
Forecast: Cloudy skies through Sunday with showers becoming likely from Fresno County northward tonight with a slight chance of showers south of Fresno County. Periods of rain Sunday night through Tuesday night with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday afternoons. A chance of showers Wednesday morning, mainly in Kern County, otherwise it will be partly cloudy. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday night through Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday night with a slight chance of showers Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 45/61/46/57 | Reedley 46/63/46/57 | Dinuba 44/61/45/56 | |
| Porterville 46/64/46/58 | Lindsay 44/64/45/59 | Delano 46/64/46/60 | |
| Bakersfield 48/64/48/62 | Taft 49/65/49/61 | Arvin 46/64/47/63 | |
| Lamont 47/65/47/60 | Pixley 45/64/46/59 | Tulare 43/61/45/56 | |
| Woodlake 45/63/46/58 | Hanford 46/63/46/58 | Orosi 43/63/45/58 | |
Winds: Winds tonight through Sunday night will be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts from Fresno County north and along the west side. Winds Monday through Monday night will be mainly out of the south to southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH at times near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. Winds Tuesday will be generally variable to 15 MPH.
Rain: Light rain has spread as far south as a Monterey/Modesto/Yosemite line ahead of a cold front very slowly moving southeastward. As the main rain line moves southwestward on Sunday, a strong rain shadow will develop along the Coast Range, especially in Kern County. From Sunday night through Tuesday, periods of rain will continue and that rain shadow will remain in place. Even so, from roughly Porterville north on the east side, more than .50 seems likely with upwards to .25 along the west side and around .10 to .20 over the valley portion of Kern County. The rain will end from northwest to southeast late Tuesday night with a lingering chance of showers, mainly over Kern County, Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon through Friday night will be dry.
A rather fragmented and cold low pressure system will be off the coast from Saturday through Monday. It’s possible this feature will remain far enough off shore for dry weather to continue. However, if it moves closer to the coast, the chance of showers will increase. For now, we’ll keep that time frame under a low chance of rain category.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Next report: March 15/morning