March 17, 2020
Summary: Widespread heavy rain occurred yesterday through the early evening hours. Rainfall amounts generally ranged from over .50 to more than 1.00. Several rainfall totals are detailed below in the rain discussion. The weather quieted down last night and, with clearing skies, most locations chilled into the 30s. The only location I could find to reach the freezing mark was Exeter at 32 degrees with several locations just above freezing. The cold low now stretches from central Nevada to off the central coast. Widely scattered showers are moving onshore then over the Coast Range and into the west side of the valley. As the daytime heating process gets underway later today, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop. With very cold air aloft, small hail is a given with any thunderstorm activity that breaks out.
Models show the storm finally moving eastward through southern California Wednesday through Thursday. Interestingly enough, however, a secondary low will develop Wednesday night and Thursday, centering near Lake Tahoe. This feature will have to be watched for the potential for snow showers up and down the Sierra Nevada with even a chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over the valley floor Thursday, especially during the afternoon and evening.
That system will finally move to the east, finally allowing weak upper level high pressure to build in from the west for dry weather Thursday night through Saturday. models for the second half of the weekend and into next week have shown poor model trends from model run to model run. It now appears another low will move out of the Gulf of Alaska then slide southward off the California coast Saturday too far off shore for precipitation here in the valley. However, most models show this system moving across southern California Sunday for a chance of showers over central and southern California. Yet another low will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska, possibly centering off the northern California coast, Monday through Wednesday of next week for yet another shot at precipitation. We’ll have to wait and see over the next few days if this active pattern continues to show up on modeling.
Forecast: Partly cloudy through Thursday. Scattered showers can be expected today through this evening with a chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Widely scattered showers tonight through Wednesday evening with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. A slight chance of widely scattered showers Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday night through Saturday. increasing cloudiness Saturday night. a chance of showers Sunday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/34/59/37/62 | Reedley 58/34/60/37/62 | Dinuba 57/33/59/36/61 | |
| Porterville 59/34/60/36/62 | Lindsay 58/33/61/36/61 | Delano 59/36/60/38/61 | |
| Bakersfield 58/38/59/40/63 | Taft 57/38/59/40/62 | Arvin 59/35/59/38/62 | |
| Lamont 58/37/59/39/63 | Pixley 58/34/60/37/62 | Tulare 58/33/61/35/61 | |
| Woodlake 58/34/61/37/62 | Hanford 58/36/60/38/62 | Orosi 58/33/61/37/62 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Partly cloudy 40/65 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 41/66 |
Sunday
Chance of showers’ 43/67 |
Monday
Chance of showers 41/65 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 41/64 |
Two Week Outlook: March 24 through March 30: this model continues to show a broad trough of low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska over the western U.S. This pattern favors below average temperatures and a greater than average possibility of precipitation from time to time.
March: This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far. Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S. Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds through Friday will be generally variable to 12 MPH. Stronger gusts can be expected in the vicinity of showers or thunderstorms.
Rain Discussion: The following are storm totals as of 6:00 this morning: Stratford .57, Parlier 1.02, Arvin .34, Orange Cove 1.17, Porterville .92, Delano .66, Fresno .97, Bakersfield .55, Tulare .69, Hanford .83, Lemoore .92, Del Rey .85, Reedley .94, Madera .71, Lamont .22, Firebaugh .55, Taft .42.
The precipitation pattern from this point on will be much more widely scattered. With very cold air aloft and daytime heating, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will break out again this afternoon. Thunderstorms with localized heavy rain and small hail will be the main concern. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Wednesday and even Thursday as a secondary low develops near Lake Tahoe.
Finally, some dry weather for Thursday night through Saturday night. There is a considerable lack of continuity on models for the second half of the weekend through the middle of next week. A low pressure system may move through the southern half of California Sunday into Monday for a chance of showers then another is projected to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska, possibly to off the northern California coast, Tuesday and Wednesday. for now, the best course of action will be to go with a chance of showers each day. Even the two week outlook going out through the 30th is indicating a high risk of showers continuing from time to time.
Frost Discussion: As of 6:30, Exeter was the only location to reach 32 degrees this morning. however, many locations were between 33 and 36 degrees. I anticipate similar conditions tonight. where skies clear for several hours, many locations will drop to just above the freezing mark with a few low lying regions possibly dropping down to 30 to 32 degrees. If cloud cover is significant enough, temperatures will range in the mid 30s to near 40.
Some moderation will begin for Thursday morning as most locations will bottom out in the mid 30s to the lower 40s. for Friday and beyond, expect above freezing conditions. For now, it does not appear that a very cold storm such as the current one will occur, even though temperatures will remain considerably below average for mid March.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern, upper 30s to the lower 40s. Humidity values ranging from 55%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 60%/95%
Actual Humidity range March 16, 2020: Delano, 92%/35% Porterville, 87%/32%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 40%. Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .76, Parlier .71, Blackwell Corner .NA, Arvin .85, Orange Cove .65, Porterville .69, Delano .73. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 60, Blackwell 58, Arvin, 60, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 61, Delano 57
Record Temperatures: 90/31. Average Temperatures: 68/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1859 -465
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 56.4. +1.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or – 4.71or -4.13. Month to Date: 1.17 +.02
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 4.07, or -.97. Month to Date: 1.23 +.55
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967, Parlier 1035, Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:04, Sunset: 7:09 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:03
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 51 / 43 / 1.18 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 53 / 43 / 0.68 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 55 / 43 / 0.83 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 55 / 45 / 0.77 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 54 / 44 / 0.59 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1606 / 68 / 53 / 0.35 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 56 / 44 / 0.65 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1651 / 51 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 63 / 44 / 0.58 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 61 / 42 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 40 / M /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.47 7.00 62 14.00 124 11.26 14.06
MODESTO 0.75 5.28 51 10.76 105 10.28 13.11
MERCED 1.04 7.26 75 11.05 114 9.73 12.50
MADERA 0.61 3.83 40 8.66 91 9.49 12.02
FRESNO 0.81 4.55 51 8.90 101 8.84 11.50
HANFORD 0.73 4.19 53 7.23 91 7.93 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.35 3.87 77 5.80 115 5.04 6.47
BISHOP 0.08 1.61 42 7.41 192 3.85 5.18
SALINAS 0.49 7.09 69 11.51 112 10.31 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.81 8.74 83 13.34 127 10.53 12.78
SANTA MARIA 1.26 7.46 66 13.56 119 11.36 13.95
Next report: March 17/afternoon