March 18, 2020
Summary: A couple of locations have reached the 32 degree mark. However, the vast majority range from 33 to 38 degrees this morning. up at Tuolumne Meadows in Yosemite, the temperature was 4 degrees below zero. The cold low pressure system has morphed into two centers of low pressure. One is over northwest Nevada while the second is down in northern Baja. The northern system is generating some light showers over parts of northern California while the Baja system, which is stronger, is sending a strong surge of moisture into San Diego and Imperial Counties. The low over northwest Nevada will drift southward over the central Sierra Nevada tonight and Thursday, increasing the amount of instability for another round of showers over the Sierra with even a minimal chance of widely scattered showers over the valley floor Thursday, mainly during the afternoon and evening. Finally, this complex weather pattern will shift eastward Thursday night, allowing weak upper level high pressure to fill in from the west for a temporary period of dry weather which will last through most of the weekend.
The next challenge will come in the form of a cold low dropping southward from the Gulf of Alaska, initially too far off shore for precipitation until late Sunday when most of the models show the low shifting eastward into central California for a chance of showers Sunday night and Monday. The main dynamics of this storm will move through central California, but even more so southern California.
After that, a much larger trough of low pressure will develop from British Columbia, digging southward into California Tuesday through Thursday for a renewed chance of precipitation from time to time. By Friday of next week, models continue to point towards a dry pattern returning as high pressure builds in from the eastern Pacific,, driving the storm track into the Pacific Northwest.
Forecast: partly cloudy through tonight. variable cloudiness Thursday through Thursday evening with a small chance of widely scattered showers. Partly cloudy later Thursday night through Saturday night. increasing cloudiness Sunday with a chance of showers by late afternoon. A chance of showers Sunday night with a continuing risk of showers at times Monday through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 59/38/61/39/65 | Reedley 60/39/61/40/65 | Dinuba 58/37/60/40/64 | |
| Porterville 60/38/61/39/64 | Lindsay 59/37/61/39/65 | Delano 61/39/61/41/65 | |
| Bakersfield 59/42/62/42/66 | Taft 59/40/61/42/66 | Arvin 60/40/61/41/66 | |
| Lamont 59/39/61/40/65 | Pixley 59/37/61/40/65 | Tulare 58/37/61/39/64 | |
| Woodlake 60/37/61/39/64 | Hanford 61/40/61/41/65 | Orosi 59/37/61/39/63 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Partly cloudy 41/66 |
Sunday
PM showers possible 43/67 |
Monday
Chance of rain 45/67 |
Tuesday
Chance of rain 41/64 |
Wednesday
Chance of rain 40/63 |
Two Week Outlook: March 24 through March 30: this model continues to show a broad trough of low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska over the western U.S. This pattern favors below average temperatures and a greater than average possibility of precipitation from time to time.
March: This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far. Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S. Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will generally be variable to around 12 MPH. Winds during the night and early morning hours will generally be less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.
Rain Discussion: There will be a small chance of widely scattered showers Thursday through Thursday evening. Otherwise, dry weather will prevail through Sunday morning. the chance of showers will again increase by late Sunday afternoon with a chance of rain Sunday night through Thursday of next week. Obviously, it won’t be raining during that entire time, but a significant trough of low pressure will be over and off the west coast Tuesday through Thursday for periods of unsettled weather from time to time. Most models are finally showing a dry weather pattern returning by Friday of next week.
Frost Discussion: Sanger, Lindcove, Exeter, east Clovis, and Navelencia had reached the 32 degree mark as of 6:30 this morning. all other reporting stations were above freezing. For tonight and beyond, all locations will be above freezing as the coldest pool of air has now shifted to the east. Even though temperatures will largely be below average for the next week, no significant cold temperatures are anticipated.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern, mid to upper 30s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 40%/90%
Actual Humidity range March 17, 2020: Delano, 99%/45% Porterville, 99%/46%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 40%. Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .77, Parlier .76, Blackwell Corner .NA, Arvin .84, Orange Cove .66, Porterville .72, Delano .77. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 59, Blackwell 58, Arvin, 60, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 61, Delano 56
Record Temperatures: 87/32. Average Temperatures: 68/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1878 -455
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 55.8. +1.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or – 4.71 or -4.20. Month to Date: 1.17 -.05
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 4.07, or -1.01. Month to Date: 1.23 +.51
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967, Parlier 1035, Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:03, Sunset: 7:10 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:05
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 58 / 38 / 0.03 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 58 / 35 / 0.02 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 57 / 40 / 0.18 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 58 / 33 / 0.05 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 59 / 37 / 0.02 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 61 / 39 / 0.21 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 58 / 36 / 0.22 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1652 / 57 / 38 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 63 / 34 / 0.21 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1659 / 58 / 37 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 55 / 38 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.05 7.05 62 14.00 124 11.33 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 5.28 51 10.76 104 10.35 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.29 74 11.05 113 9.79 12.50
MADERA 0.00 3.85 40 8.66 91 9.53 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 4.71 53 8.90 100 8.91 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.23 53 7.23 91 7.97 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.07 80 5.80 114 5.08 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.73 45 7.41 192 3.86 5.18
SALINAS 0.01 7.10 68 11.51 111 10.39 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.02 8.76 82 13.34 126 10.62 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.11 7.57 66 13.56 119 11.44 13.95
Next report: March 18/afternoon