March 20, 2020
Summary: A cold weak upper low remains this morning over western Nevada. The far western side of this feature will hang over the San Joaquin Valley again today. Combine that with the stronger spring sun and isolated showers and thunderstorms may be the result again this afternoon and evening. The greatest risk today appears to be over the south valley.
In the meantime, off shore are two low centers which have moved out of the Gulf of Alaska and are now parked several hundred miles off the California coast. Models actually show the two combining over the weekend then moving inland right through central California late Sunday afternoon into Monday. Showers will be widespread with this system.
The first phase of this pattern change will be fairly mild as snow levels Monday will rise to about 6,000 to 7,000 feet. From Tuesday through Thursday, however, a cold trough will develop, extending from British Columbia to southern California and off shore. The dynamics of this storm appear to be fairly strong. Winds at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will sweep in from the west. Some models project a 130 knot jet stream above central California Tuesday night and Wednesday. this could result in significant precipitation along the Sierra Nevada and possibly along the valley floor. However, the usual rain shadow will develop along the west side and in the south valley. With a very cold pool of air above central California, isolated thunderstorms will be possible over central California Wednesday and Thursday afternoons with the snow level dropping to 3,000 to 4,000 feet.
Finally, the whole trough of low pressure will move into the interior west Friday, allowing a flat zone of upper level high pressure to build in from the west, driving the storm track back up into the Pacific Northwest and occasionally northern California.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today with a small chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Partly cloudy later tonight. mostly to partly cloudy Saturday and Saturday night. increasing cloudiness Sunday with a chance of rain by late afternoon. Rain likely at times Sunday night and Monday. Periods of rain Monday night through Thursday. Partly cloudy Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/41/67/42/70 | Reedley 65/42/67/43/71 | Dinuba 63/41/65/42/68 | |
| Porterville 66/40/67/42/71 | Lindsay 65/40/67/41/71 | Delano 66/42/67/43/72 | |
| Bakersfield 65/48/68/49/72 | Taft 66/50/68/51/72 | Arvin 65/44/68/45/72 | |
| Lamont 66/44/68/45/72 | Pixley 66/42/67/43/71 | Tulare 63/40/67/42/69 | |
| Woodlake 64/41/67/42/69 | Hanford 65/42/66/43/70 | Orosi 64/40/67/42/69 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Periods of rain 48/65 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 43/59 |
Wednesday
Showers likely 40/61 |
Thursday
Showers likely 38/62 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 37/66 |
Two Week Outlook: March 27 through April 2: this model continues to show a broad trough of low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska over the western U.S. This pattern favors below average temperatures and a greater than average possibility of precipitation from time to time.
March: This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far. Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S. Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds through Saturday night will be generally at or less than 12 MPH and variable in nature. Winds Sunday afternoon through Monday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain Discussion: A weak upper low is centered over western Nevada this morning. the far back side of this system will hang back over the eastern and southern flanks of the valley for a minimal chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Later tonight through Sunday will be dry. The threat of rain will begin to increase again by late Sunday afternoon, becoming likely at times Sunday night and Monday. We may see a brief lull before a much colder storm arrives later Tuesday through Thursday with rain at times and heavy snow along the Sierra Nevada. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
Rainfall amounts from Sunday night through Thursday could tally up to between .50 to possibly more than an inch north of Kern County and away from the west side. Considerably less is expected along the west side and over the valley portion of Kern County.
Dry weather will return Friday and last through next weekend.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the foreseeable future. We will have to closely monitor the situation from Wednesday through Friday of next week as a cold trough of low pressure moves through with low snow levels. In all likelihood, conditions will remain above freezing, however mid to upper 30s in colder locations seems plausible on any night that observes clear skies.
Longer range models for next weekend and beyond also point to above freezing conditions.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern, low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 50%/95%
Actual Humidity range March 19, 2020: Delano, 95%/56% Porterville, 97%/69%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .72, Parlier .71, Blackwell Corner .NA, Arvin .90, Orange Cove .63, Porterville .74, Delano .79. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 58, Blackwell 58, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 60, Delano 55
Record Temperatures: 89/33. Average Temperatures: 68/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1909 -442
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 55.1. +0.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or – 4.93 or -4.11. Month to Date: 1.39 +.04
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 4.09, or -1.08. Month to Date: 1.25 +.44
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967, Parlier 1035, Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:00, Sunset: 7:12 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:09
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 60 / 45 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 59 / 43 / 0.02 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 57 / 47 / 0.05 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 60 / 47 / 0.01 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 58 / 46 / 0.35 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 60 / 46 / 0.01 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 59 / 47 / 0.09 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1652 / 55 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 58 / 42 / 0.12 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1646 / 60 / 43 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON T 7.05 62 14.00 123 11.40 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 5.34 51 10.76 103 10.42 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.29 74 11.05 112 9.85 12.50
MADERA 0.00 3.85 40 8.66 90 9.58 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 4.71 53 8.90 99 8.97 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.23 53 7.23 90 8.02 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.07 79 5.80 113 5.13 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.73 45 7.41 191 3.88 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.12 68 11.51 110 10.46 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 8.76 82 13.34 125 10.70 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 7.57 66 13.56 118 11.53 13.95
Next report: March 20/afternoon