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Forecast

March 20, 2020/pm update

March 20, 2020

Summary: Temperatures are running 6 to 10 degrees higher than 24 hours ago. Readings are actually making it into the low to mid 60s as of 1:00pm.  Overall, the pattern out there is a rather oddball one, and definitely complex.  There is a weak upper low which has drifted southeastward to southern Nevada.  It’s triggering widely scattered showers over the Antelope Valley.  A few echoes are even showing up over the Kern County mountains.  Models continue to show a small risk of isolated showers over the south valley tonight, however if this materializes at all, most locations will remain dry.

 

Off the California coast, two weather systems will merge over the weekend before moving inland with the center of circulation projected to move right through Kern County Sunday night.  widespread precipitation will occur, lasting well into Monday.  While this system moves inland, a very cold low will be dropping southward along the British Columbia coast, eventually building a trough southward into California.  From late Tuesday through Wednesday night, a 130 knot jet stream will be right over California, resulting in a great deal of instability for widespread showers and a chance for isolated thunderstorms, especially Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Some models show the trough moving far enough inland to take the chance of precipitation out of the forecast for Thursday.  Others, though, show it hanging back enough for a chance of showers Thursday morning.

 

Upper level high pressure will finally  begin to build in from the west Friday through next weekend.  For the first time in about two weeks, the two week model is indicating below average rainfall and near average temperatures.

 

Forecast: Partly cloudy tonight with a slight chance of widely scattered showers, mainly in Kern County. Partly cloudy Saturday and Saturday night.  increasing cloudiness Sunday morning.  a chance of rain Sunday afternoon.  Rain likely at times Sunday night and Monday.  Partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday morning.  increasing cloudiness Tuesday afternoon.  Showers likely Tuesday night through Wednesday night with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.  A chance of showers Thursday morning.  partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.  mostly clear Friday afternoon.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 42/66/43/67 Reedley 42/66/44/67 Dinuba 40/65/43/66
Porterville 41/67/43/68 Lindsay 40/68/42/68 Delano 44/67/45/69
Bakersfield 50/67/48/70 Taft 50/68/50/70 Arvin 45/67/47/70
Lamont 45/67/47/70 Pixley 41/67/43/67 Tulare 40/65/43/66
Woodlake 40/65/43/66 Hanford 43/66/44/67 Orosi 39/65/43/67

 

Winds: Winds will be variable to 12 MPH through Monday with periods of near calm conditions during the night and morning hours.

 

Rain: A weak upper air disturbance is over southern Nevada and what appears to be some kind of ripple of upper level low pressure off the southern California coast will give a minimal chance of widely scattered showers over the south valley and the Kern County mountains tonight.  most locations, however, will remain dry.  Saturday through Sunday morning will be dry.  The first of two low pressure systems will move inland through Kern County late Sunday through early Monday with widespread precipitation.  North of Kern County, .25 to .50 is possible between Sunday afternoon and midday Monday with perhaps .25 along the west side and in Kern County.  No sooner will this system move eastward than a very cold low will drop southward along the Canadian coastline and into California Tuesday night through Wednesday night.  widespread showers are likely with this storm with snow levels plummeting down to 3,000 to 4,000 feet in the surrounding mountains.  Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening along with localized heavy rain and small hail.  Some models show the trough moving far enough to the east for a dry day Thursday while others point to a chance of showers into Thursday morning.  We’ll keep that chance in the forecast for now.  Thursday night and on through next weekend will be governed by upper level high pressure for dry weather.

 

Frost Discussion:  All locations will be above freezing each morning for the foreseeable future.  A cold air mass will be over central California Wednesday and Thursday of next week.  Mid to upper 30s may occur in the coldest locations, assuming skies clear.  Still, we’ll keep an eye on that time frame.

Next report: March 21/morning