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Forecast

March 21, 2020/report

March 21, 2020

Summary: A weak upper low over western Nevada has actually retrograded back to the west, or in other words right overhead overnight.  This oddball pattern tapped into another weak ripple of low pressure off shore and spread light showers over the valley overnight.  As of the time of this writing, light showers were still occurring over Madera County and parts of western Fresno County.  This, I must say troublesome low, will shift back towards the east later today for a renewed chance of showers, mainly over the mountain areas with a very temporary period of dry weather tonight and Sunday morning.

 

In the meantime, off shore a low pressure system will begin to shift quickly eastward Sunday.  Most models show the center of circulation right across the Kern County mountains Sunday night and early Monday and into southern Nevada  Monday afternoon.  Judging from the system’s speed, most if not all of the precipitation will be over by midday Monday with dry weather Monday afternoon through Tuesday.

 

Just as this system moves eastward, another much colder low currently over the Aleutian Islands will move southward, centering just west of Washington state Sunday evening.  This storm will develop a trough of low pressure extending southward into northern and central California Tuesday night into Wednesday night with additional periods of rain. A 130 knot jet stream will be overhead Tuesday night and Wednesday morning which will be conducive for significant precipitation along the Sierra Nevada.

 

Snow could fall as low as 3,000 to 4,000 feet with this system.  Isolated thunderstorms may pop up Wednesday afternoon and evening.  A fundamental shift in the pattern will begin Thursday as a flat zone of upper level high pressure begins to fill in from the west while the storm track migrates into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest.  The bottom line is dry weather with a warming trend can be expected Thursday through next weekend and more than likely through the following week.

 

Forecast: A chance of showers today, mainly from Fresno County north.  Partly cloudy tonight.  increasing cloudiness Sunday morning.  a chance of rain Sunday afternoon.  Rain at times Sunday night through midmorning Monday.  Partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday.  Showers will become likely Tuesday night through Wednesday night with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Partly cloudy Thursday through Friday morning.  mostly clear Friday afternoon through Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 65/43/67/49/65 Reedley 66/43/67/48/66 Dinuba 65/43/67/47/66
Porterville 67/43/67/48/67 Lindsay 67/42/67/47/66 Delano 67/45/67/49/66
Bakersfield 68/48/70/51/67 Taft 68/50/70/51/65 Arvin 67/46/70/48/68
Lamont 67/46/70/49/66 Pixley 66/43/67/46/66 Tulare 65/43/66/46/67
Woodlake 65/42/67/46/65 Hanford 66/43/67/47/66 Orosi 65/41/67/46/65

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

PM rain possible

43/61

Wednesday

Showers likely

40/58

Thursday

Partly cloudy

36/63

Friday

Mostly clear

39/65

Saturday

Mostly clear

40/70

 

Two Week Outlook: March 28 through April 3:  For the first time in two weeks, this model is indicating that high pressure will dominate the pattern over California.  Temperatures will range near seasonal averages with drier than average conditions prevailing.

 

March:  This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far.  Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.

 

March, April, May:  This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S.  Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.

 

Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH and variable in nature through tonight.  Winds later Sunday and Sunday night, winds will be out of the east to southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.  Winds Monday night and Tuesday will be variable to 15 MPH.

 

Rain Discussion:  A weak upper low which yesterday at this time was over western Nevada actually did what we call a retrograde.  In other words, it backed up over central California overnight.  As a result, light showers occurred over much of the valley.  This same pesky low should begin to shift back towards the east later today, so for the remainder of the day, scattered showers cannot be ruled out, especially from Fresno County northward.

 

Some dry weather will finally prevail tonight and Sunday morning.  by mid to late afternoon Sunday, rain will be spreading in from the west with rain at times Sunday night and Monday morning.  unlike previous storms, this one will be a quick mover, so rain should be over by midday Monday.  Rainfall amounts north of Kern County will range between .25 and .50 with this storm with perhaps a tenth or two over the valley portion of Kern County and upwards of a quarter inch or so along the west side where a rain shadow will develop.

 

We can now expect dry weather Monday afternoon through Tuesday then a much colder low will drop into northern and central California for periods of showers Tuesday night through Wednesday night.  with a cold pool of air overhead Wednesday afternoon, daytime heating just may trigger isolated thunderstorms with localized heavy rain and small hail Wednesday afternoon and evening.  The back side of this storm should move into western Nevada by Thursday morning, so for now it appears Thursday will be dry with dry weather through next weekend.  It also appears the following week will be dry under a dominating ridge of upper level high pressure.

 

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees each night for the foreseeable future.  I still want to monitor conditions for Wednesday through Friday of next week as a cold pool of air will be moving into the region.  Any night that has clear skies during that time frame could see widespread mid to upper 30s will be likely with a small chance of cold pockets briefly dipping into the lower 30s.  beyond next Friday, warmer conditions will prevail with above freezing conditions.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s.  Kern, mid to upper 40s.  Humidity values ranging from 50%/90% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 45%/85%

Actual Humidity range March 20, 2020: Delano, 97%/44% Porterville, 97%/44%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 10%.  Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 20%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .70, Parlier .68, Blackwell Corner .NA, Arvin .89, Orange Cove .65, Porterville .77, Delano .78. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 57, Blackwell 58, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 59, Delano 55

Record Temperatures: 88/30. Average Temperatures: 68/43

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1921 -429

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for February so far: 55.0. +0.2

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average + or – 4.93 or -4.17.  Month to Date: 1.39 -.02

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  4.09, or -1.11.  Month to Date: 1.25 +.41

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967,  Parlier 1035,  Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:59, Sunset: 7:13 pm. Hours of Daylight:  12:12

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  64 /  36 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  64 /  39 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  64 /  43 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  66 /  39 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  66 /  36 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DHM    /  67 /  47 / 0.01 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  64 /  40 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1651 /  63 /  41 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  66 /  39 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1645 /  67 /  41 /    M /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  63 /  40 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                         T    7.05    62   14.00   123    11.40    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    5.34    51   10.76   103    10.42    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.29    74   11.05   112     9.85    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    3.85    40    8.66    90     9.58    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    4.71    53    8.90    99     8.97    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.23    53    7.23    90     8.02    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    4.07    79    5.80   113     5.13     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.73    45    7.41   191     3.88     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    7.12    68   11.51   110    10.46    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    8.76    82   13.34   125    10.70    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    7.57    66   13.56   118    11.53    13.95

 

Next report: March 21/afternoon