Updates
  • Out/pneumonia Pardon the interruption again, folks. John had been coughing more and more frequently lately. Difficult breathing yesterday resulted in an ambulance ride to the local…
  • May 8, 2024 report May 8, 2024 Summary  High pressure aloft is  located 500 miles off the northern California coast. Low pressure is centered over Wyoming and the Dakotas…
  • May 6, 2024 report May 6, 2024 Summary  An elongated trough of low pressure extends from the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest while high pressure is setting…
  • May 4, 2024 report May 4, 2024 Summary  A low pressure center is off the coast of the Pacific Northwest this morning. This low will move southwestward into northern…
  • May 2, 2024 report May 2, 2024 Summary  upper level high pressure is upwelling ahead of a low pressure system located in the northeast Pacific. This will drive temperatures…
Forecast

March 22, 2020/report

March 22, 2020

Summary: Showers are already showing up off the central coast this morning ahead of a low pressure system which is centered roughly 400 miles west of the southern California coast.  This storm is now on the move and will begin to spread precipitation over the valley this afternoon, especially after roughly 3:00pm or so.  Periods of rain will continue through tonight and into Monday morning.  models are also indicating dynamics will be strong enough as the low moves inland for a chance of isolated thunderstorms tonight and early Monday.

 

The center of circulation will track across southern San Luis Obispo County then eastward through southern Kern County early Monday morning.  showers will taper off by midday with only a minimal chance of instability showers Monday afternoon through Tuesday.

 

While all of this is going on, a very cold low will dig rapidly southward along the British Columbia coast and will be centered near Vancouver Island by midday Monday.  This storm will dig a trough southward through northern and central California Tuesday night through Thursday night.  most models are now indicating the back side of the trough will still be over central California Thursday morning, so we’ll maintain a chance of showers in the forecast through that time frame.

 

Another shot at some isolated thunderstorms will occur Wednesday afternoon and evening as a cold pool of unstable air aloft moves overhead.  Combine that with the much stronger spring sunshine and the recipe is ripe for thunderstorm activity.

 

Thursday afternoon will be the beginning of a fundamental shift in the pattern which will drive the storm track further and further north.  A flat zone of upper level high pressure will be setting up shop over the eastern Pacific Ocean then will extend inland into the western U.S.  If models have a good handle on things, the week following that will be dry.

 

Forecast: Partly cloudy this morning with increasing cloudiness this afternoon.  A chance of rain by around 3:00pm.  Periods of rain likely tonight and Monday morning with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms.  Partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday with a small chance of showers, mainly near the foothills.  Periods of showers will become likely Tuesday night through Wednesday night.  there will be the risk of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.  A chance of showers for a time Thursday morning. partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.  mostly clear Friday afternoon through Sunday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 67/51/64/49/61 Reedley 68/52/64/48/60 Dinuba 66/49/64/46/59
Porterville 69/51/64/48/62 Lindsay 69/50/64/48/61 Delano 69/51/65/47/62
Bakersfield 71/52/64/51/63 Taft  70/52/64/50/62 Arvin 71/50/64/49/63
Lamont 70/51/65/50/62 Pixley 69/51/64/47/61 Tulare 68/49/64/46/60
Woodlake 67/49/64/46/61 Hanford 68/51/64/47/61 Orosi 68/48/64/46/60

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Wednesday

Showers likely

44/59

Thursday

AM showers possible

40/59

Friday

Partly cloudy

36/65

Saturday

Mostly clear

40/68

Sunday

Mostly clear

42/72

 

Two Week Outlook: March 28 through April 3:  For the first time in two weeks, this model is indicating that high pressure will dominate the pattern over California.  Temperatures will range near seasonal averages with drier than average conditions prevailing.

 

March:  This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far.  Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.

 

March, April, May:  This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S.  Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.

 

Winds Discussion: Winds through tonight will be generally out of the east or southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.  Winds Monday and Monday night will be variable to around 12 MPH.  Winds Tuesday will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, continuing on and off through Wednesday.

 

Rain Discussion:  The chance of rain will begin to increase this afternoon, especially after roughly 3:00pm with periods of rain tonight and Monday morning.  some models are picking up on there being strong enough dynamics for the possibility of a few embedded thunderstorms.  Rainfall amounts from this afternoon through Monday will probably be somewhere in the .25 to .33 range north of Kern County with locally more, especially if thunderstorms develop.  In Kern County, under .25 is likely with this event.  The chance of rain will rapidly decrease Monday afternoon with only a minimal chance of showers, mainly near the foothills, Monday night and Tuesday.

 

A much colder storm will begin to spread precipitation over the valley Tuesday night with on and off showers through Wednesday night and possibly even Thursday morning.  there will be a chance of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening which, if comes to fruition, would be accompanied by locally heavy rain and small hail.  The chance of showers should be over by midday Thursday.  A hemispheric shift in the overall pattern will begin Friday, leading California into a dry and warmer pattern through the weekend.  All the medium range models show a dry central California through the following week, as well.

 

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing each nigh for the foreseeable future.  We do still need to carefully watch Thursday and Friday mornings as a cold pool of air settles in over central California.  It appears freezing levels may drop to 4,000 feet or so.  With a clear sky, widespread mid to upper 30s would occur Thursday and Friday mornings with a small chance of lower 30s in isolated low spots.  I must emphasize, however, that no widespread frost or freeze event is seen for the foreseeable future.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Kern, upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Humidity values ranging from 50%/95% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 40%/95%

Actual Humidity range March 21, 2020: Delano, 93%/61% Porterville, 93%/49%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 40%.  Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 20%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .66, Parlier .67, Blackwell Corner .NA, Arvin .89, Orange Cove .66, Porterville .78, Delano .79. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 57, Blackwell 58, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 59, Delano 54

Record Temperatures: 83/30. Average Temperatures: 69/43

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1930 -439

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for February so far: 55.0. +0.1

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average + or – 4.98 or -4.18.  Month to Date: 1.44 -.03

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  4.09, or -1.15.  Month to Date: 1.25 +.37

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967,  Parlier 1035,  Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:57, Sunset: 7:14 pm. Hours of Daylight:  12:14

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  65 /  44 /  0.06 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  65 /  43 /  0.04 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  64 /  51 /  0.04 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  63 /  50 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  60 /  48 /     T /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  68 /  50 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  64 /  50 /     T /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  66 /  49 /  0.00 /

 

 

Next report: March 23/morning