We regretfully will be out of the office this afternoon, Monday, March 23. Reports will resume Tuesday morning. Thank you.
March 23, 2020
Summary: The entire valley from Madera County southward received a good soaking overnight with rainfall amounts generally ranging from .25 to .33. Specific rainfall totals are outlined below in the rainfall discussion.
The bulk of the precipitation has now moved into the Sierra Nevada as the center of this rather compact low has now moved into southern Inyo and northern San Bernardino Counties. We’ll keep a chance of showers in the forecast for the remainder of the day, but generally speaking, dry weather will prevail from this afternoon through Tuesday with a minimal chance of a few showers, mainly near the foothills.
In the meantime, to our north a very cold low is centered just to the northwest of Vancouver Island and will be just west of Washington state later tonight. this system will form a trough oriented from northeast to southwest which will move across northern and central California Wednesday and Thursday. This storm will not carry tremendous amounts of moisture, however these cold systems this time of year, combined with the much higher sun angle of the spring season, will spawn showers and even isolated thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday. So, it will be possible for isolated locations to pick up decent precipitation along with small hail. Model projections indicate the freezing level may drop as low as 4,000 feet Wednesday night and Thursday, meaning the snow level in the surrounding mountains could drop to 3,000 to 3,500 feet or so.
Thursday and Friday mornings could potentially be quite chilly, but at this time no widespread frost is expected. More details are below in the frost discussion.
Friday will begin a new weather pattern which will see the return of dry weather for the upcoming weekend. Models show a flat zone of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific with the storm track well north of central California. The good news is, we have received some significant precipitation this month which is at least marginally improving a dismal water year.
Forecast: A chance of showers today, mainly this morning. partly cloudy tonight and Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night with a chance of showers, mainly after midnight. Periods of showers Wednesday through Thursday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons and evenings. Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Monday.
Short Term:
Madera 65/45/61/41/59 | Reedley 65/44/61/41/58 | Dinuba 64/43/60/40/58 | |
Porterville 65/44/61/41/60 | Lindsay 66/43/61/40/59 | Delano 66/46/62/43/60 | |
Bakersfield 65/50/63/44/59 | Taft 66/51/63/45/61 | Arvin 66/45/63/42/60 | |
Lamont 65/46/63/43/61 | Pixley 65/44/61/42/59 | Tulare 64/43/60/41/58 | |
Woodlake 65/44/61/42/59 | Hanford 65/45/61/42/59 | Orosi 64/43/61/41/58 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Thursday
Showers likely 39/59 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 36/63 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 37/68 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 39/71 |
Monday
Mostly clear 43/73 |
Two Week Outlook: March 30 through April 5: For the first time in two weeks, this model is indicating that high pressure will dominate the pattern over California. Temperatures will range near seasonal averages with drier than average conditions prevailing.
March: This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far. Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S. Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds today will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH. Winds tonight and Tuesday will be variable to 10 MPH. Winds Tuesday night through Wednesday night will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds Thursday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH.
We regretfully will be out of the office this afternoon, Monday, March 23. Reports will resume Tuesday morning. Thank you.
Rain Discussion: The following are storm totals as of 6:00am. Bakersfield .25, Mettler .11, Taft .44, Shafter .79, Belridge .50, Delano .60, Porterville .72, Exeter .68, Harris Ranch .28, Kettleman Hills .28, Visalia .61, Hanford .56, Lemoore .85, Parlier .65, Reedley .61, Fresno .52, Madera .23.
The southern half of the San Joaquin Valley received a good soaking overnight. Just as a note of interest: northern California was completely dry. The bulk of the storm is now over, but there may be enough instability for a minimal chance of a few showers today through Tuesday.
To our north, a very cold low will develop a trough and swing it through northern and central California Wednesday through Thursday. Models indicate this will not be a heavy precipitation producer, but lift along the Sierra Nevada should produce some significant snow. Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday and possibly Thursday afternoon and evening. If these storms develop, localized heavy rain and small hail will be the result.
Rainfall amounts from Tuesday night through Thursday will probably range between a tenth or two to as much as a half inch when, and if, thunderstorms occur.
A prolonged period of dry weather will begin Friday, lasting for at least a week and possibly longer.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night for the upcoming week. As we draw closer to Thursday and Friday mornings, we will scrutinize the details of the atmosphere. If skies clear, widespread mid to upper 30s are likely with a chance of coldest river bottom and similar low spots dipping into the mid 30s. There’s an excellent chance cloud cover will hold temperatures above freezing Thursday morning. even on Friday morning, residual cloud cover should help maintain above freezing conditions. Above freezing conditions will prevail from Saturday on as the air mass modifies.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern, upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 65%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 60%/90%
Actual Humidity range March 22, 2020: Delano, NA, Porterville, 98%/42%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .63, Parlier .69, Blackwell Corner .NA, Arvin .92, Orange Cove .69, Porterville .77, Delano .77. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 56, Blackwell 58, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 58, Delano 54
Record Temperatures: 85/34. Average Temperatures: 69/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1938 -440
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 55.1. +0.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or – 5.26 or -3.96. Month to Date: 1.72 +.19
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 4.21, or -1.06. Month to Date: 1.37 +.46
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967, Parlier 1035, Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:56, Sunset: 7:15 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:17
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 69 / 44 / T /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 70 / 45 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 70 / 50 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 69 / 44 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 68 / 42 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 74 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 67 / 45 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1653 / 64 / 43 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 72 / 43 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1649 / 70 / 45 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 66 / M / T /
Next report: March 24/morning