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Forecast

March 25, 2020/pm update

March 25, 2020

Summary: Hit and miss scattered showers are moving from west to east across the valley this afternoon.  A very cold pool of air is currently moving overhead.  In fact, the freezing level earlier this  morning over Oakland was only 3,800 feet.  Daytime heating is, in part, the catalyst for the formation of these showers.  Isolated brief thunderstorms are possible during the rest of the afternoon and through the early evening.  Several reports of small  hail have been documented from the Bay Area southward to San Benito County.

 

The coldest air aloft will be overhead tonight and Thursday morning.  the chance of showers Thursday will be reduced as the most unstable portion of this storm will move just to our southeast.  Even so, daytime heating should be enough for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.  Weak upper level high pressure will shift inland behind the exiting low Thursday night and Friday for the beginning of what will be a prolonged period of dry weather.

 

I hedge just a bit here for Saturday night and Sunday as a weak trough will be moving inland through northern California.  After this system moves into the Desert Southwest Sunday night and Monday, a stronger high will develop and eventually cover most of the eastern Pacific, California and the Desert Southwest.  By midweek, temperatures should be in the mid to upper 70s, approaching 80.

 

Forecast: Scattered showers tonight.  a small chance of a few isolated thunderstorms this evening.  Widely scattered showers Thursday,  mainly during the afternoon and evening with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon.  Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning.  mostly clear Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.  partly cloudy Saturday afternoon.  Variable cloudiness Saturday night and Sunday with a slight chance of sprinkles from Madera County northward.  Partly cloudy Sunday night.  mostly clear Monday through Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 36/58/35/61 Reedley 37/58/35/62 Dinuba 35/57/34/60
Porterville 36/59/34/62 Lindsay 36/58/34/62 Delano 38/58/36/61
Bakersfield 40/58/39/63 Taft 40/58/40/62 Arvin 38/58/37/63
Lamont 38/58/37/62 Pixley 37/59/36/63 Tulare 36/57/34/61
Woodlake 37/58/35/62 Hanford 38/58/36/62 Orosi 36/57/34/61

 

Winds:  Winds tonight through Thursday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH.  Stronger gusts are possible in the vicinity of showers.  Winds Thursday night through Saturday will be variable to no more than 12 MPH.

 

Rain:  Daytime heating is triggering scattered showers from Kern County northward this afternoon.  So far, I haven’t seen any reports of lightning strikes but that may change by the time the evening is over.  There have also been several reports of hail from the Bay Area southward to San Benito County.  Showers will become more widely scattered this evening and Thursday morning.  daytime heating may be enough to trigger widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms again Thursday afternoon.  Rainfall for the remainder of this event will generally be no more than a tenth or two with locally higher amounts if isolated thunderstorms happen to materialize.  Dry weather will return Thursday night and will continue through the weekend.  A weak trough of low pressure will move through northern California Saturday night and Sunday for a small chance of rain Saturday night and Sunday from Madera County northward.  A stronger ridge will build in from the west later next week for what promises to be a prolonged period of dry weather.

 

Frost Discussion:  The coldest sector of this storm is now arriving.  The balloon sounding earlier this morning over Oakland indicated a freezing level of only 3,800 feet.  If skies clear on a widespread basis tonight and tomorrow night, mid to upper 30s will become likely at many ag stations.  Low 30s are possible in the coldest regions but no widespread frost or freeze event is on hand.

 

Moderation will begin over the weekend, ensuring above freezing conditions will continue for at least the next week thereafter and quite possibly considerably longer.

Next report: March 26/morning