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Forecast

March 25, 2020/report

March 25, 2020

Summary: Scattered showers continue in various locations in the valley at this hour.  The coverage will increase beginning at late morning as the daytime heating effect warms the ground, allowing currents of warm air to spiral skyward, forming more showers and possibly even some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.  We can expect a repeat Thursday afternoon and evening.  Currently, the coldest air aloft is just to our northwest.  It will move overhead later today through Thursday.  The next two nights will be quite chilly with widespread mid to upper 30s, assuming skies are relatively clear for several hours.  There’s a chance of low 30s in a few low lying pockets.  More in the frost discussion below.

 

Models show the trough moving into the interior western United States Thursday night and Friday, ending the precipitation.  Models are having somewhat of a difficult time in nailing down the behavior of a weak trough of low pressure which will move through northern and central California Saturday night and Sunday.  I believe it’s a good idea to introduce a small chance of light showers to the forecast for Fresno County north, but am going to maintain a dry forecast for the south valley.  After this system moves through Sunday night, a stronger zone of upper level high pressure will build in from the west.  Yesterday, some models indicated there might be more active weather next Wednesday and beyond, however that possibility seems to be diminishing on new model information.

 

We could see temperatures rise to near 80 degrees or so by the middle of next week.

 

Forecast: Periods of showers through Thursday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and again Thursday afternoon and evening.  Partly cloudy Thursday night through Friday morning.  mostly clear Friday afternoon through Friday night.  increasing cloudiness Saturday with a small chance of light showers from Fresno County north Saturday night and Sunday.  Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday morning.  mostly clear Monday afternoon through Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 57/35/58/35/62 Reedley 58/36/58/35/61 Dinuba 57/34/57/33/60
Porterville 59/36/58/34/62 Lindsay 58/35/58/33/62 Delano 60/37/58/36/62
Bakersfield 59/40/58/39/63 Taft 59/41/58/41/62 Arvin 59/38/58/37/63
Lamont 59/39/58/37/61 Pixley 58/36/58/34/62 Tulare 57/35/57/33/61
Woodlake 58/36/58/35/62 Hanford 59/37/58/35/61 Orosi 57/36/58/33/61

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Increasing clouds

42/65

Sunday

Slight chance of showers

44/65

Monday

Partly cloudy

41/68

Tuesday

Mostly clear

42/74

Wednesday

Mostly clear

48/80

 

Two Week Outlook: April 1 through April 7:  For the first time in two weeks, this model is indicating that high pressure will dominate the pattern over California.  Temperatures will range near seasonal averages with drier than average conditions prevailing.

 

April:  Typically, these models really do not offer a good handle on a weather direction.  This particular model is even muddier than most.  It simply indicates near average temperatures with near average rain over the next 30 days.

 

April, May, June  Like most longer range forecasts, above average temperatures are indicated over the next 90 days for most of the lower 48, including central California.  This  model gives equal chances of above or below average precipitation, but considering we are now into the dry season, it’s pretty much a moot point anyway.

 

Winds Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest through Thursday at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, especially in the vicinity of showers.  Winds Thursday night through Saturday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH.

 

Rain Discussion:  There will be periods of scattered showers through Thursday evening.  The activity will be most numerous during the afternoon and early evening  hours.  Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening and again Thursday afternoon and evening.  Localized heavy rain and small hail will be the main challenges.  Rainfall amounts at most locations will be generally light and generally at about a tenth or two.  However, where thunderstorms occur, isolated locations could pick up near a half inch.

 

Dry weather will return Thursday night.  Friday through Saturday will be dry.  Light showers will spread over the northern half of California Saturday night and Sunday.  We need to introduce a small chance of light showers from Fresno County north for Saturday night and Sunday.  At this point, it looks like the south valley will be rain free.

 

After this system shifts eastward Sunday night, a prolonged period of dry weather will begin.  Yesterday at this time, it looked like there might be more active weather the middle of next week, but current information is backing off on that possibility.

 

Frost Discussion: Tonight and Thursday night will be cold.  If skies clear for several hours, widespread mid to upper 30s are anticipated.  Isolated river bottom and similar low pockets could drop into the lower 30s each night.  it’s also quite possible that cloud cover will keep temperatures in the mid 30s to the lower 40s.  at any rate, no widespread frost or freeze event will occur.

 

Moderation will begin Friday night and Saturday for above freezing conditions.  For now, there’s nothing on longer range models that would result in a particularly cold pattern.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s.  Kern, low to mid 40s.  Humidity values ranging from 65%/95% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 65%/95%

Actual Humidity range March 24, 2020: Delano, NA, Porterville, 93%/66%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 50%.  Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 40%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .73, Parlier .72, Blackwell Corner .NA, Arvin .87, Orange Cove .71, Porterville .80, Delano .88. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 57, Blackwell 58, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 59, Delano 56

Record Temperatures: 85/32. Average Temperatures: 69/43

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1956 -440

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for February so far: 55.2. +0.1

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average + or –  5.54 or -3.80.  Month to Date: 2.00 +.35

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  4.34, or -1.00.  Month to Date: 1.50 +.52

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967,  Parlier 1035,  Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:53, Sunset: 7:17 pm. Hours of Daylight:  12:22

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  60 /  49 / 0.03 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  60 /  49 /    T /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  58 /  51 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  60 /  50 / 0.04 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  61 /  48 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DHM    /  66 /  51 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  59 /  50 / 0.03 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /  60 /  49 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  60 /  49 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DHM    /  58 /  51 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  62 /  45 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                         T    7.05    60   15.00   127    11.78    14.06

MODESTO                       0.01    5.59    52   11.73   109    10.77    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.56    74   11.70   115    10.15    12.50

MADERA                           T    4.23    43    9.52    97     9.80    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    5.51    59    8.99    96     9.34    11.50

HANFORD                       0.04    5.07    62    7.32    89     8.24    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    4.34    81    5.85   110     5.34     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.73    44    7.55   191     3.96     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    7.62    70   12.00   110    10.86    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.01    9.59    86   13.77   124    11.11    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.05    8.53    71   14.01   117    11.97    13.95

 

 

Next report: March 25/afternoon