April 2, 2020
Summary: Typical spring weather will continue through Friday as central California remains under the influence of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific which extends inland through to the Desert Southwest. A large area of low pressure remains over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies, putting California under a northwest flow aloft. This is blunting any significant warming trend.
We continue to watch the pattern that will set up this weekend and will last through at least Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. the first of two Pacific storms to move out of the Gulf of Alaska will move into northern California Saturday, spreading precipitation possibly down to a Bay Area/Stockton line. The thrust of this first system, though, will be more eastward than southward. This system will be followed closely by a much larger and stronger storm which will spread precipitation over all of northern California Sunday and into central California Sunday afternoon. Model projections indicate the storm’s center of circulation will move slowly southward, almost skirting the California coast. By midday Monday, the center of circulation should be just west of the Golden Gate then southward along the central California coast Tuesday. This will result in a prolonged period of active weather with periods of showers all the way through Tuesday.
After Tuesday, models can’t seem to get a grip on a pattern. Some models show the storm moving southward along the southern California coast Wednesday. theoretically, this would result in a continuation of showers for the central valley, especially in the south valley. Other models show the system shifting well to our southeast, returning central California to a dry weather pattern. Later next week, we could see a large low over the interior west with a cool north/northwest flow over California. Most models, once we get into next weekend, indicate our pattern will become dry with temperatures near seasonal averages.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Friday night after the upslope clouds burn off this morning in Kern County. Increasing cloudiness Saturday. mostly cloudy Saturday night with a small chance of showers from Fresno County north. Showers likely at times later Sunday through Monday night. a chance of isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon. A chance of showers Tuesday through Wednesday with another slight chance of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 67/39/69/40/69 | Reedley 69/39/69/41/70 | Dinuba 67/38/68/40/68 | |
| Porterville 68/38/69/41/70 | Lindsay 69/38/69/41/70 | Delano 69/41/70/42/71 | |
| Bakersfield 69/44/70/45/72 | Taft 68/45/70/45/72 | Arvin 69/42/69/43/72 | |
| Lamont 68/43/69/45/72 | Pixley 69/39/69/40/69 | Tulare 67/38/69/40/69 | |
| Woodlake 69/39/69/41/70 | Hanford 68/42/70/42/70 | Orosi 69/37/69/40/70 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Showers likely 50/65 |
Monday
Showers likely 44/67 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 41/63 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 43/69 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 40/71 |
Two Week Outlook: April 9 through April 15: This model is indicating a pattern conducive for below average temperatures. With a fairly significant trough of low pressure over the western states, above average precipitation is a distinct possibility.
April: Typically, these models really do not offer a good handle on a weather direction. This particular model is even muddier than most. It simply indicates near average temperatures with near average rain over the next 30 days.
April, May, June: Like most longer range forecasts, above average temperatures are indicated over the next 90 days for most of the lower 48, including central California. This model gives equal chances of above or below average precipitation, but considering we are now into the dry season, it’s pretty much a moot point anyway.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH through Friday night. Winds Saturday will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH, increasing to 10 to 20 MPH Sunday.
Rain Discussion: Dry weather will continue through at least Saturday morning. there is a slight chance of a few showers reaching into Fresno and Madera Counties late Saturday afternoon and night. the main event won’t begin until later Sunday as showers spread over all of central California, especially during the afternoon. Expect periods of showers to continue Sunday night through Monday night with a slight chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. We’ll put the chance of rain in the chance category for Tuesday and Tuesday night. isolated thunderstorms will again be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. There will be a slight chance of showers Wednesday, mainly in the south valley, with dry weather finally returning Wednesday night.
Rainfall amounts from this entire event could be in the .50+ category north of Kern County and even in Kern County, .25 to .33 seems possible. Isolated thunderstorms could ratchet up rain totals in isolated locations Monday and Tuesday afternoons along with small hail.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern, low to mid 30s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/80% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/75%
Actual Humidity range April 1`, 2020: Delano, 96%/42%, Porterville, 96%/32%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.06, Parlier 1.00, Blackwell Corner .NA, Arvin .99, Orange Cove .98, Porterville .94, Delano 1.04. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 61, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 61, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 62, Delano 61
Record Temperatures: 87/34. Average Temperatures: 71/44
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 0 -4
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for April so far: 61.0 +3.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or -5.86 or -3.90. Month to Date: .00 -.04
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 4.41, or -1.19. Month to Date: .00 -.03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967, Parlier 1035, Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:41, Sunset: 7:23 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:40
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 68 / 47 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 68 / 46 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 71 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 72 / 50 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 72 / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 73 / 51 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 72 / 49 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1652 / 70 / 50 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 73 / 46 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 72 / 55 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1700 / 67 / M / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.14 58 15.33 126 12.21 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 5.84 52 11.94 107 11.15 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.80 74 11.84 112 10.57 12.50
MADERA 0.00 4.43 44 9.65 95 10.15 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 5.86 60 9.08 93 9.76 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 5.36 63 7.38 86 8.56 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.41 79 5.89 105 5.60 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.77 44 7.55 186 4.06 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.89 70 12.04 106 11.31 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.84 85 14.00 121 11.53 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 8.60 69 14.47 116 12.48 13.95
Next report: April 3/morning