April 3, 2020
Summary: The air mass has dried out to the point where radiational cooling is actually quite strong. Most ag locations this morning dipped down into the mid to upper 30s. Even so, another nice spring day is on tap as weak upper level high pressure continues to stretch from the eastern Pacific across California and into the Desert Southwest.
Major pattern changes will occur over the weekend. The first of two low pressure systems will move into northern California Saturday, spreading light showers down to a Monterey/Merced line. This system, however, is pretty weak. It’s thrust will be more eastward than southward, so even though clouds will increase Saturday, dry conditions will prevail. A much stronger and colder low will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska to a position just off the northern California coast Sunday.
Precipitation will spread southward into central California Sunday, especially during the second half of the day. This will be a closed low situation, meaning the storm itself will be a bit more difficult to forecast. It does appear the center of circulation will be just west of the Golden Gate about midday Monday and somewhere near Vandenberg by midday Tuesday. This will spread a cold pool of unstable air over central California with widespread precipitation. There’s a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening but with a higher risk Monday and Tuesday afternoons as the center of circulation will be closer.
The good news is that heavy snow will pile up along the southern Sierra Nevada, possibly more than 2 feet of new snow is anticipated from Sunday through Monday with more to follow. Some models place this storm over southeast California by Thursday morning. so the bottom line is, the highest risk of substantial rain will occur from late Sunday afternoon through Monday night. however, if this storm follows some of the projections, periods of showers will continue right into Wednesday evening with even a slight chance of showers in the south valley Thursday, depending on which exit strategy the storm decides to follow.
Finally, by next Thursday night and Friday, high pressure will finally build in for several days of dry weather.
Forecast: Mostly clear today. Partly cloudy tonight. increasing cloudiness Saturday. mostly cloudy Saturday night. rain at times Sunday through Monday night. a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon with a greater risk of thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Showers likely Tuesday and Tuesday night with a chance of isolated thunderstorms again in the afternoon and evening. A chance of showers Wednesday with a slight chance of showers Wednesday night and Thursday, mainly in the south valley. Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 71/38/70/48/64 | Reedley 71/38/70/49/65 | Dinuba 70/37/70/48/64 | |
| Porterville 72/38/72/49/67 | Lindsay 72/37/71/48/64 | Delano 72/40/72/49/68 | |
| Bakersfield 72/45/73/51/70 | Taft 71/45/71/51/70 | Arvin 72/39/72/50/71 | |
| Lamont 71/45/72/50/70 | Pixley 72/40/71/50/68 | Tulare 70/37/70/47/64 | |
| Woodlake 71/39/70/48/66 | Hanford 71/40/70/47/65 | Orosi 71/38/70/47/66 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Showers likely 48/64 |
Tuesday
Showers likely 41/65 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 42/64 |
Thursday
Slight chance of showers 45/70 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 41/72 |
Two Week Outlook: April 19 through April 16: This model is indicating a pattern conducive for below average temperatures. With a fairly significant trough of low pressure over the western states, above average precipitation is a distinct possibility.
April: Typically, these models really do not offer a good handle on a weather direction. This particular model is even muddier than most. It simply indicates near average temperatures with near average rain over the next 30 days.
April, May, June: Like most longer range forecasts, above average temperatures are indicated over the next 90 days for most of the lower 48, including central California. This model gives equal chances of above or below average precipitation, but considering we are now into the dry season, it’s pretty much a moot point anyway.
Winds Discussion: winds today will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH with possible local gusts to 20 MPH along the west side during the evening hours. Winds will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH Saturday, increasing to 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts Saturday night through Monday.
Rain Discussion: Precipitation Saturday will be confined mainly north of a Monterey/Merced line. On Sunday, rain will spread over the rest of the south valley, mainly during the second half of the day. There will be a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Periods of rain will continue Sunday night through Monday night with a higher risk of isolated thunderstorms with localized heavy rain and small hail Monday afternoon and evening. Periods of showers will continue Monday night through Tuesday night with a renewed risk of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. The chance of showers will begin to decrease Wednesday, but cannot be eliminated from the forecast. There will be a slight chance of showers Thursday, mainly over Kern County. Dry weather will return thereafter.
Rainfall amounts north of Kern County from Sunday through Monday night could range anywhere from .50 to .75 with possibly as much as .25 over the valley portion of Kern County. Periodic showers will continue Tuesday through Wednesday, so rainfall amounts will vary from a tenth or two to as much as a half inch.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern, low to mid 30s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/80% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/75%
Actual Humidity range April 2, 2020: Delano, 91%/37%, Porterville, 89%/26%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 30%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.16, Parlier 1.03, Blackwell Corner .NA, Arvin 1.08, Orange Cove 1.02, Porterville 1.00, Delano 1.08. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 60, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 61, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 62, Delano 61
Record Temperatures: 91/33. Average Temperatures: 71/44
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 0 -4
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for April so far: 58.3 +0.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or -5.86 or -3.94. Month to Date: .00 -.08
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 4.41, or -1.21. Month to Date: .00 -.05
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967, Parlier 1035, Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:40, Sunset: 7:24 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:43
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 68 / 38 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 67 / 38 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 68 / 43 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 68 / 43 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 69 / 38 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 68 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 68 / 42 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / 42 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 66 / 47 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 67 / 43 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.14 58 15.54 127 12.26 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 5.84 52 12.03 108 11.19 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.80 73 11.84 111 10.62 12.50
MADERA 0.00 4.43 44 9.75 96 10.18 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 5.86 60 9.22 94 9.80 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 5.36 62 7.49 87 8.59 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.41 78 5.90 105 5.62 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.77 43 7.55 186 4.07 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.89 70 12.04 106 11.35 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.84 85 14.00 121 11.57 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 8.60 69 14.47 115 12.53 13.95
Next report: April 4/morning