April 4, 2020
Summary: Precipitation has spread as far south as Santa Rosa along the coast and is moving into the northern Sacramento Valley. The cloud canopy from this first system is currently near a Monterey/Merced line. This first storm will affect mainly the northern half of California. Some light precipitation may reach as far south as Fresno County tonight, but the thrust of this system is more eastward.
The second low, however, is much stronger and will follow a path just off the California coast. The center of this significant winter storm will be off the northwest California coast by midday Sunday. Some models are now centering it just west of Monterey on Monday. As this storm tracks southward parallel to the coast, the jet stream will flank from southwest to northeast across central California Sunday night and Monday. This 120 MPH jet will be lifted by the Sierra Nevada, resulting in very heavy precipitation. One model shows Yosemite Valley receiving about 3.50 inches Sunday through Monday with 2 to 3 feet of new snow over the higher elevations. Potential rainfall amounts in the valley are discussed below.
This may turn out to be one of the most significant storms of the winter season. This system has strong upper air dynamics, increasing the chance of isolated thunderstorms, especially Monday afternoon and evening. As the low slides southward to a position west of Vandenberg Tuesday, the cold pool of unstable air will keep periods of showers going along with a chance of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The chance of showers will begin to diminish Wednesday. in fact, some models place the center of circulation near Yuma by late Wednesday afternoon. With the low in this position, the counterclockwise circulation will have winds aloft out of the east or northeast, creating a rain shadow but this time from the Sierra Nevada.
Models show a fairly strong ridge of high pressure building along the Pacific coast beginning late Thursday and lasting through the weekend. One model projects temperatures in the valley will eclipse the 80 degree mark this coming weekend.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness later today. Cloudy tonight with a chance of showers, mainly from Fresno County north. Periods of rain Sunday through Monday night, possibly locally heavy at times. A slight chance of showers Sunday and Sunday night with a higher risk of isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Showers Tuesday with a chance of isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Scattered showers Tuesday night with showers diminishing Wednesday. a slight chance of showers Wednesday night. partly cloudy Thursday. Mostly clear Thursday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 69/48/62/47/60 | Reedley 71/50/62/45/60 | Dinuba 70/49/62/45/59 | |
| Porterville 72/49/65/47/61 | Lindsay 71/48/62/45/61 | Delano 72/50/67/50/62 | |
| Bakersfield 73/53/69/50/61 | Taft 72/53/68/50/61 | Arvin 73/50/70/47/62 | |
| Lamont 72/51/69/50/61 | Pixley 72/50/62/46/61 | Tulare 70/48/62/45/60 | |
| Woodlake 71/48/62/44/60 | Hanford 71/51/62/45/61 | Orosi 70/47/62/44/60 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Showers likely 41/61 |
Wednesday
Diminishing showers 39/66 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 39/71 |
Friday
Mostly clear 44/78 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 47/80 |
Two Week Outlook: April 11 through April 17: This model is showing upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific and California, resulting in above average temperatures. The chance of precipitation during this time frame appears very low.
April: Typically, these models really do not offer a good handle on a weather direction. This particular model is even muddier than most. It simply indicates near average temperatures with near average rain over the next 30 days.
April, May, June: Like most longer range forecasts, above average temperatures are indicated over the next 90 days for most of the lower 48, including central California. This model gives equal chances of above or below average precipitation, but considering we are now into the dry season, it’s pretty much a moot point anyway.
Winds Discussion: Winds later today and tonight will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH, increasing to 10 to 20 MPH Sunday through Monday with local gusts to 30 MPH, especially from Fresno County north and along the west side. Winds Monday night through Tuesday will be mainly out of the east at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain Discussion: There is a chance of light showers tonight, mainly from Fresno County north. Sunday through Monday night will see the main event. In fact, this storm may turn out to be one of the most significant of the entire rainfall season. Rainfall amounts from Sunday through Monday night north of Kern County will range anywhere from .50 to 1.00 with possibly even more, especially in Fresno and Madera Counties. Even though Kern County will be in a rain shadow for part of this event, half inch plus totals would not be a total shock.
Thunderstorms are also possible, especially Monday afternoon and evening. Where these storms occur, localized heavy rain and small hail will be likely. Showers will become more scattered Tuesday and Tuesday night with a renewed chance of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. The chance of showers will steadily decrease Wednesday and Wednesday night.
It now appears Thursday will be dry with dry weather for the remainder of the week and likely through the first half of next week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern, upper 30s to the lower 40s. Humidity values ranging from 35%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 30%/85%
Actual Humidity range April 3, 2020: Delano, 86%/23%, Porterville, 89%/24%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 0%. Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 0%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.20, Parlier 1.08, Blackwell Corner .NA, Arvin 1.13, Orange Cove 1.05, Porterville 1.05, Delano 1.11. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 60, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 61, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 62, Delano 61
Record Temperatures: 88/33. Average Temperatures: 71/44
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 0 -4
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for April so far: 56.8 -1.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or -5.86 or -3.99. Month to Date: .00 -.13
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 4.41, or -1.24. Month to Date: .00 -.08
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967, Parlier 1035, Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:38, Sunset: 7:25 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:45
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 70 / 37 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 68 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 70 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 71 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 71 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 68 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 70 / 39 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1649 / 69 / 38 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 71 / 36 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 70 / 48 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 67 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.14 58 15.54 126 12.30 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 5.84 52 12.03 107 11.23 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.80 73 11.84 111 10.66 12.50
MADERA 0.00 4.43 43 9.75 95 10.22 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 5.86 59 9.22 94 9.85 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 5.36 62 7.49 87 8.61 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.41 78 5.90 104 5.65 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.77 43 7.55 185 4.09 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.89 69 12.05 106 11.40 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.84 85 14.00 121 11.60 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 8.60 68 14.47 115 12.58 13.95
Next report: April 5/morning