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Forecast

April 5, 2020/report

April 5, 2020

Summary: A strong cold front is aligned from just south of Monterey northeastward through Stanislaus County to near Lake Tahoe.  Doppler radar is indicating heavy rain along this very slow moving front.  The surface front itself will slowly move down the valley today, probably not reaching Kern County  until late afternoon.  The fact that it is a slow mover will mean there’s an excellent chance of significant precipitation from today through Monday night.  a 120 MPH jet stream is currently aligned from southwest to northeast across central California perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada.  There are some high resolution models that portray anywhere from 4 to 6 inches of rain or moisture equivalent from Fresno County north along the Sierra Nevada and as much as 3 to 4 feet of new snow above 6,000 feet, giving a real shot in the arm for future water supplies.

 

The parent low is located off the northern California coast and will move slowly but steadily southward just off shore, centering just west of Monterey by midday Monday and just west of Vandenberg Tuesday.  This will result in very unsettled conditions through at least Tuesday night.

 

As the cold pool of air fills in behind the cold front, it will join up with daytime heating, increasing the risk of isolated to even scattered thunderstorms, especially Monday afternoon and evening with the risk continuing Tuesday afternoon and evening. Localized heavy rain and small  hail will be likely with any storm development.

 

From Wednesday and Wednesday night, there are varying solutions on models.  But it does appear the low will move through extreme southern California, centering somewhere near Yuma, Arizona by Wednesday afternoon.  This will pull the precipitation southeastward out of our region.  We’ll keep a chance of showers in the forecast through Wednesday night, but Thursday and beyond will be dry.  In fact, a large high will set up shop over the eastern Pacific Ocean with California on the eastern rim of this high.  Temperatures as early as Friday will warm well into the 70s with warmer locations near 80 degrees over the weekend.

 

Medium range models for next week indicate high pressure will remain over the eastern Pacific with the storm track remaining well north of central California.

 

Forecast: Rain spreading slowly southward today, reaching Kern County by evening.  Rain tonight and Monday, locally heavy at times.   A slight chance of thunderstorms tonight with a higher risk of isolated to possibly scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening.  Periods of showers Tuesday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.  Showers Tuesday night with scattered showers Wednesday.  a slight chance of showers Wednesday night.  partly cloudy Thursday through Friday morning.   mostly clear Friday afternoon through Sunday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 62/48/61/41/63 Reedley 66/49/61/41/63 Dinuba 64/48/61/41/63
Porterville 67/49/62/42/64 Lindsay 66/47/61/40/65 Delano 68/50/62/47/62
Bakersfield 71/52/62/47/62 Taft 71/52/62/48/63 Arvin 71/50/63/45/62
Lamont 71/51/63/46/63 Pixley 68/50/62/46/62 Tulare 65/47/61/41/63
Woodlake 66/46/61/42/64 Hanford 65/49/62/41/63 Orosi 65/46/61/41/63

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Wednesday

Showers likely

46/63

Thursday

Partly cloudy

43/70

Friday

Mostly clear

44/77

Saturday

Mostly clear

48/79

Sunday

Mostly cloudy

49/81

 

Two Week Outlook: April 11 through April 17:  This model is showing upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific and California, resulting in above average temperatures.  The chance of precipitation during this time frame appears very low.

 

April:  Typically, these models really do not offer a good handle on a weather direction.  This particular model is even muddier than most.  It simply indicates near average temperatures with near average rain over the next 30 days.

 

April, May, June:  Like most longer range forecasts, above average temperatures are indicated over the next 90 days for most of the lower 48, including central California.  This  model gives equal chances of above or below average precipitation, but considering we are now into the dry season, it’s pretty much a moot point anyway.

 

Winds Discussion: Winds through Monday will be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts.  Winds Monday night through Wednesday will be variable to 15 MPH with stronger gusts near showers.

 

Rain Discussion:  This may turn out to be one of the top three rainfall events of the season.  Rain will slowly spread southward during the course of the day, reaching Kern County during the late afternoon or during the early evening hours.  Rain, locally heavy at times, can be expected through Monday night.  isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening.  High resolution quantitative precipitation estimates, better known as rainfall amounts, north of the Kern County line and along the eastern half of the valley could range from between .75 and 1.25 inches today through Monday night.  along the west side, anywhere from .50 to .75 seems plausible.  Even over the valley portion of Kern County, upwards to near .50 is likely.

 

The precipitation pattern will become more scattered Tuesday with the renewed chance of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.  The precipitation will slowly end from north to south Wednesday during the course of the day with only a minimal chance of showers Wednesday night, mainly in Kern County.  Thursday will begin a prolonged period of dry weather, lasting through the remainder of the week and hopefully well into next week.

 

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s.  Kern, mid to upper 40s.  Humidity values ranging from 75%/100% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 40%/95%

Actual Humidity range April 4, 2020: Delano, 89%/32%, Porterville, 94%/28%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 20%.  Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 10%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.25, Parlier 1.13, Blackwell Corner .NA, Arvin 1.19, Orange Cove 1.09, Porterville 1.11, Delano 1.16. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 59, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 61, Orange Cove 60, Porterville 62, Delano 61

Record Temperatures: 92/34. Average Temperatures: 71/44

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 0 -4

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for April so far: 56.8 -1.2

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average + or -5.86 or -4.03.  Month to Date: T -.17

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  4.41, or -1.24.  Month to Date: .00 -.10

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967,  Parlier 1035,  Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:37, Sunset: 7:26 pm. Hours of Daylight:  12:47

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  66 /  38 /    T /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  66 /  37 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  68 /  45 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  72 /  41 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  72 /  36 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  73 /  43 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  71 /  41 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1647 /  71 /  41 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  71 /  36 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1651 /  70 /  48 / 0.00 /

 

 

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.05    7.19    58   15.54   126    12.35    14.06

MODESTO                          T    5.84    52   12.03   107    11.27    13.11

MERCED                           T    7.80    73   11.84   111    10.69    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    4.43    43    9.75    95    10.25    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    5.86    59    9.22    93     9.89    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    5.36    62    7.49    87     8.64    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    4.41    78    5.90   104     5.67     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.77    43    7.55   184     4.10     5.18

SALINAS                          T    7.89    69   12.07   106    11.44    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.84    85   14.00   120    11.63    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    8.60    68   14.47   115    12.62    13.95

 

 

Next report: April 6/morning