April 17, 2020
Summary: By far the dominant pattern this rainfall season has been for Pacific storms to roll southward off the California coast then inland through southern California or northern Baja. In many cases, northern California currently has just 50% of average while southern California, in some cases, is 150% of average. The latest example of this is our current low pressure system which is located just off Point Concepcion at this hour. There are areas of scattered showers along the northeast quadrant of the low which are currently clipping northwest Kern and far western Kings and Fresno Counties. The low will continue to track across southern California today and tonight.
Models are borderline on the possibility of isolated thunderstorms developing, mainly in the south valley, this afternoon and evening. If we get significant areas of clearing today, it may be enough to volatize the atmosphere to the point where a few storms could percolate. We’ll go ahead and add a minimal chance of showers to the forecast for Saturday morning as some models are indicating a ripple of low pressure will lag behind.
A wedge of high pressure will build in from the west later Saturday through Sunday. A weak trough of low pressure will then move through late Sunday night through Monday night. the trend that began 48 hours ago of this system weakening is even more pronounced this morning, so there’s just a minimal chance of showers and that would mainly be fore Monday and Monday evening. Most of the precipitation will be confined to the mountain areas.
Beyond Monday night, a flat zone of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific will build inland for the beginning of a dry weather pattern with a warming trend. A weak trough of low pressure will move through the Pacific Northwest and northern California Wednesday night but any precipitation will remain to our north.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy through Saturday morning with a chance of scattered showers. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this afternoon and evening. Partly cloudy Saturday afternoon. Mostly clear Saturday night through Sunday. Variable cloudiness later Saturday night through Monday night with a slight chance of a few showers Monday and Monday evening, mainly near the foothills. Partly cloudy Tuesday morning. mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday morning. mostly clear Thursday afternoon through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 71/50/69/48/72 | Reedley 73/48/69/48/72 | Dinuba 71/48/69/48/71 | |
| Porterville 72/50/69/48/73 | Lindsay 73/49/69/48/72 | Delano 73/51/70/50/73 | |
| Bakersfield 73/53/69/53/73 | Taft 72/55/70/53/73 | Arvin 71/50/71/50/73 | |
| Lamont 72/51/70/49/72 | Pixley 72/51/69/49/73 | Tulare 71/49/69/48/71 | |
| Woodlake 72/48/69/48/72 | Hanford 73/52/69/49/73 | Orosi 71/48/69/48/72 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Chance of showers 51/68 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 44/71 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 46/78 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 49/80 |
Friday
Mostly clear 50/81 |
Two Week Outlook: April 24 through April 30: This model indicates a dominant ridge of upper level high pressure will be over the eastern Pacific and California, resulting in above average temperatures. The chance of rain during this timeframe appears to be very low.
April: Typically, these models really do not offer a good handle on a weather direction. This particular model is even muddier than most. It simply indicates near average temperatures with near average rain over the next 30 days.
April, May, June: Like most longer range forecasts, above average temperatures are indicated over the next 90 days for most of the lower 48, including central California. This model gives equal chances of above or below average precipitation, but considering we are now into the dry season, it’s pretty much a moot point anyway.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the late morning through early evening hours will be generally less than 12 MPH. Winds during the night and early morning hours will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Monday.
Rain Discussion: There is a chance of scattered showers through Saturday morning. there is a minimal chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts will range from nothing to upwards of .10 or so. If thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening, a few pockets could record more than .25 in a short period of time. A little secondary disturbance shows up on some models, so we’ll add a slight chance of showers to the forecast for Saturday morning.
The weakening trend that began 2 days ago for the Monday system continues this morning. it spears most, if not all, the precipitation will be confined to the mountain areas. Even so, we’ll keep a slight chance of showers in the forecast for Monday and Monday night, mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills.
For Tuesday and beyond, dry weather can be expected.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 50%/85% at Hanford. Bakersfield 55%/90%
Actual Humidity range April 16, 2020: Delano, 86%/22%, Porterville, 95%/25%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 50%. Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.34, Parlier 1.17, Blackwell Corner 1.36, Arvin 1.36, Orange Cove 1.16, Porterville 1.25, Delano 1.34. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 63, Blackwell 62, Arvin, 63, Orange Cove 62, Porterville 64, Delano 62
Record Temperatures: 94/34. Average Temperatures: 75/47
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2 -13
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for April so far: 58.3 -0.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or 7.34 or -2.95. Month to Date: 1.48 +.91
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 6.92, or +1.02. Month to Date: 2.51 +2.18
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:20, Sunset: 7:37 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:14
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 80 / 48 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 79 / 50 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 83 / 57 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 84 / 49 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 85 / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 85 / 55 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 82 / 51 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1651 / 83 / 51 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DHM / M / M / M /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1659 / 83 / 61 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 76 / 52 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.98 62 15.79 124 12.77 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.86 59 12.06 103 11.69 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.31 84 11.87 107 11.06 12.50
MADERA 0.00 5.73 54 9.84 93 10.63 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 7.34 71 9.47 92 10.29 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 6.46 72 7.67 86 8.94 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 6.92 117 5.94 101 5.90 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 2.20 52 7.55 179 4.22 5.18
SALINAS T 8.97 76 12.31 104 11.86 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.30 95 14.10 118 11.93 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.39 79 14.53 111 13.07 13.95
Next report: April 18/morning