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Forecast

May 14, 2020/report

May 14, 2020

Summary: There remains enough difference in pressure between the coast and the interior for occasionally breezy weather, especially along the west side of the valley.  Winds at the Lemoore NAS as of 6:00am were sustained at 17 MPH while the Fresno Air Terminal was reporting winds of 13 MPH out of the northwest.  Models still show roughly 11 millibars difference in pressure today  between San Francisco and Las Vegas with roughly 6 millibars difference between Bakersfield and Daggett.

 

A slow warming trend will continue through Saturday as a weak ridge of high pressure struggles in from the eastern Pacific.  The main flow across the Pacific Ocean will remain zonal, or west to east, as an area of low pressure remains over and off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.

 

The next major change in the pattern will occur again Sunday as the high is suppressed southward in response to a developing low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.  Unlike the previous system, most models are now indicating this feature will take a more southerly trajectory.  In fact, it should be over northwest California Monday and move right through central California Monday night and Tuesday morning.  this leads me to believe that the risk factor for measurable rain will be higher this time around, especially from Fresno County north and along the Sierra Nevada.  It’s possible a few thunderstorms could develop Monday afternoon and evening from Fresno County north as a pool of cold, unstable air settles over northern and central California.

 

Temperatures, which will rise into he mid to upper 80s Saturday, will fall into the mid to upper 70s Monday and lower 70s Tuesday when the pool of relatively cold air will be above central California.  It will begin to warm up again later next week, but just slowly as a weak area of low pressure remains along the U.S. coast.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday night.  becoming partly cloudy from Fresno County north Sunday.  Increasing cloudiness Sunday night with a chance of showers from Fresno County north.  Variable cloudiness Sunday night through Tuesday with a chance of scattered showers and possibly even some isolated thunderstorms, mainly from Fresno County north, Monday afternoon and evening.  A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday, mainly north of Kern County.  Mostly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.  mostly clear Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 80/52/82/53/87 Reedley 81/52/82/54/87 Dinuba 80/51/81/53/86
Porterville 81/52/82/54/87 Lindsay 81/51/81/53/86 Delano 80/53/83/53/88
Bakersfield 81/56/81/57/86 Taft 81/57/81/58/86 Arvin 82/55/81/58/87
Lamont 81/56/81/57/86 Pixley 81/52/82/54/87 Tulare 80/51/81/53/85
Woodlake 81/54/82/56/85 Hanford 81/53/82/56/85 Orosi 82/52/83/56/86

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Increasing clouds

53/87

Monday

Chance of showers

56/77

Tuesday

Chance of showers

51/72

Wednesday

Partly cloudy

50/77

Thursday

Mostly clear

50/82

 

Two Week Outlook: May 20 through May 26:  This  model indicates our temperatures will again be near to marginally above average.  The main storm track will migrate north of the growing area, so the chance of rain is very low.

 

May:  The first month of the dry season will be typically dry, in other words this model is portraying near average precipitation for the month of May.  It also appears the trend of above average temperatures will continue for the month.

 

May, June, July:  Obviously, over the next 90 days precipitation will be largely nonexistent with the usual few exceptions, mainly during the month of May.  Models show the western half of the U.S. having generally above average temperatures.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds today will be generally out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH in the afternoons and evenings.  Winds Friday and Saturday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH afternoons and evenings and 7 MPH nights and mornings.  By late Sunday afternoon, winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to20 MPH with stronger gusts.

 

Rain Discussion: There will be a chance of showers by Sunday evening from Fresno County northward and over the remainder of the valley Monday and Tuesday.  It now appears a low pressure system developing off the coast of the Pacific Northwest over the weekend will take a more southerly track than the previous system had.  As the pool of relatively cold unstable air passes overhead Monday, it’s possible isolated thunderstorms could occur, mainly from Fresno County north, Monday afternoon and evening.  Showers cannot be ruled out just about anywhere Monday night and Tuesday.  Rainfall amounts from this possible event will be light, although the possibility of thunderstorms means local amounts of up to .25 are possible from Fresno County north Monday through Tuesday.  Dry weather will return Wednesday on.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s.  Kern: Mid to upper 40s.  Humidity values ranging from 30%/85% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 30%/75%

Actual Humidity range May 13, 2020: Delano, 75%/30%, Porterville, 84%/25%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 90%.  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford NA, Parlier 1.77, Blackwell Corner 2.07, Arvin 1.93, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 1.82, Delano 1.87. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford NA, Parlier 73, Blackwell 76, Arvin, 73, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 79, Delano 78

Record Temperatures: 102/43. Average Temperatures: 84/53

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 144 +63

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for May so far: 70.3 +3.6

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or 7.51 or -3.38.  Month to Date: .00 -.22

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  7.03, or +.84.  Month to Date: .01 -.09

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 5:52, Sunset: 7:59 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:07

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  78 /  50 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  78 /  47 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  78 /  54 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  78 /  53 /    T /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  79 /  54 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  76 /  65 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  77 /  53 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1651 /  76 /  51 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  77 /  52 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1649 /  75 /  56 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /   M /  49 / 0.00 /

 

 

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    7.99    60   15.79   118    13.40    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.86    55   12.06    97    12.37    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    9.34    79   11.87   100    11.82    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    5.81    51    9.84    87    11.34    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    7.51    69    9.49    87    10.88    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    6.51    68    7.67    80     9.53    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.01    7.03   114    6.32   102     6.19     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    2.25    51    8.09   185     4.37     5.18

SALINAS                       0.06    9.06    73   12.40   100    12.36    12.83

PASO ROBLES                      T   11.34    92   14.12   115    12.31    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.03   10.42    77   14.83   109    13.59    13.95

 

Next report: May 15/morning