May 14, 2020
Summary: A ridge of upper level high pressure is currently upwelling ahead of a large low which is currently intensifying in the Gulf of Alaska. In the short term, this will result in a warming trend through Sunday, at least south of Fresno County. That same low in the Gulf of Alaska will slowly move southeastward towards the northern California coast over the weekend. Some models show the precipitation line as far south as a Bay Area/Stockton line by late Saturday night,, moving very slowly southward through central California Sunday through Monday. Each forecast model set indicates the threat of precipitation is real with this storm with the likelihood of scattered showers and thunderstorms north of Kern County beginning Sunday night.
The center of circulation will be near central California Monday, meaning a cold pool of unstable air will combine with the very high sun angle and strong daytime heating, setting off showers and thunderstorms north of Kern County Monday afternoon and evening. I would not discount the possibility of showers and thunderstorms in Kern County, as well. The low will very slowly track across central California Monday night. most models place the center of circulation near the California/Nevada border Tuesday morning. more showers and isolated thunderstorms could occur Tuesday, especially during the afternoon and evening. This will largely be determined by the exit strategy of this system as if finally moves into Idaho and Utah Wednesday.
A weak trough of low pressure will remain over California after this event, so it does not appear temperatures will recover very quickly as they’ll rise to near average by Thursday or Friday.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through tonight. mostly clear Saturday and Saturday night with high clouds mixing in. increasing cloudiness Sunday with a chance of scattered showers during the afternoon from Fresno County northward with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms. Scattered showers will spread southward Sunday night and become likely north of Kern County Monday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. There will also be a risk of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in Kern County. Scattered showers likely Monday night with a chance of showers Tuesday and a chance of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Mostly to partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. clearing Wednesday afternoon. Mostly clear Thursday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 81/53/87/54/84 | Reedley 81/52/87/54/85 | Dinuba 80/52/85/54/85 | |
| Porterville 82/52/87/54/86 | Lindsay 81/51/86/53/87 | Delano 82/56/87/57/86 | |
| Bakersfield 82/57/87/59/88 | Taft 80/58/86/60/87 | Arvin 82/54/86/56/87 | |
| Lamont 81/55/86/55/87 | Pixley 81/52/87/56/86 | Tulare 80/51/85/54/85 | |
| Woodlake 81/51/85/53/85 | Hanford 80/55/87/55/86 | Orosi 80/50/87/53/86 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Showers likely 57/75 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 58/74 |
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy 47/79 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 53/84 |
Friday
Mostly clear 53/87 |
Two Week Outlook: May 20 through May 26: This model indicates our temperatures will again be near to marginally above average. The main storm track will migrate north of the growing area, so the chance of rain is very low.
May: The first month of the dry season will be typically dry, in other words this model is portraying near average precipitation for the month of May. It also appears the trend of above average temperatures will continue for the month.
May, June, July: Obviously, over the next 90 days precipitation will be largely nonexistent with the usual few exceptions, mainly during the month of May. Models show the western half of the U.S. having generally above average temperatures.
Winds Discussion: Winds this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts. Winds tonight and Saturday night will be generally variable to around 10 MPH. Winds Sunday will initially be out of the west at 10 to20 MPH wth stronger gusts, becoming out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH Sunday night and Monday with locally stronger gusts possible, generally along the west side.
Rain Discussion: The chance of rain will begin to increase from Fresno County northward as early as Sunday, especially during the afternoon and evening. The chance of scattered showers will spread slowly southward Sunday night with the likelihood of scattered showers Monday and Monday night. there will be a distinct chance of scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening, mainly north of Kern County. The main threat with these potential storms will be localized heavy rain and small hail. I cannot completely rule out the chance of isolated thunderstorms over Kern County as well, although the risk factor is somewhat lower. The chance of rain Tuesday will depend on the storm’s exit strategy. Some models show the circulation pattern moving into western Nevada Tuesday afternoon, meaning the coldest air will move into Nevada with it. However, if the back side of the system is still over central California, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue Tuesday. By Tuesday night, the low should be far enough to the east for a dry forecast.
As far as potential amounts go, about .10 to .25 is possible from Fresno County north with generally less than .15 sough of Fresno County. However, with the potential of thunderstorms roaming about, local amounts to point.50 cannot be ruled out, although if this occurs, the event would be very isolated.
After Tuesday afternoon, we’ll see the return of dry weather.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/80% at Hanford. Bakersfield 30%/70%
Actual Humidity range May 14, 2020: Delano, 87%/30%, Porterville, 91%/26%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford NA, Parlier 1.79, Blackwell Corner 2.05, Arvin 1.93, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 1.82, Delano 1.87. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford NA, Parlier 73, Blackwell 76, Arvin, 73, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 78, Delano 77
Record Temperatures: 102/42. Average Temperatures: 84/53
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 147 +61
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 70.1 +3.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or 7.51 or -3.40. Month to Date: .00 -.24
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 7.03, or +.83. Month to Date: .01 -.10
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:50, Sunset: 8:01 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:09
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 78 / 55 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 79 / 54 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 79 / 57 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 80 / 56 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 81 / 57 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 80 / 55 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 79 / 55 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1642 / 78 / 53 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 80 / 49 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 77 / 57 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 77 / 52 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.99 59 15.79 118 13.43 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.86 55 12.06 97 12.41 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.34 79 11.87 100 11.86 12.50
MADERA 0.00 5.81 51 9.84 86 11.39 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 7.51 69 9.49 87 10.91 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 6.51 68 7.67 80 9.56 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.03 113 6.32 102 6.20 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 2.25 51 8.09 184 4.39 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 9.06 73 12.40 100 12.38 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.34 92 14.12 115 12.33 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.42 77 14.83 109 13.61 13.95
Next report: May 16/morning