Updates
  • Out/pneumonia Pardon the interruption again, folks. John had been coughing more and more frequently lately. Difficult breathing yesterday resulted in an ambulance ride to the local…
  • May 8, 2024 report May 8, 2024 Summary  High pressure aloft is  located 500 miles off the northern California coast. Low pressure is centered over Wyoming and the Dakotas…
  • May 6, 2024 report May 6, 2024 Summary  An elongated trough of low pressure extends from the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest while high pressure is setting…
  • May 4, 2024 report May 4, 2024 Summary  A low pressure center is off the coast of the Pacific Northwest this morning. This low will move southwestward into northern…
  • May 2, 2024 report May 2, 2024 Summary  upper level high pressure is upwelling ahead of a low pressure system located in the northeast Pacific. This will drive temperatures…
Forecast

May 16, 2020/report

May 16, 2020

Summary: We continue to be under the umbrella of a ridge of upper level high pressure which is upwelling along the west coast ahead of a large cold core low currently intensifying in the Gulf of Alaska.  That particular low will begin to make weather news in central California beginning Sunday night.  by Sunday evening, the high will be displaced over the interior west as the low in the Gulf of Alaska moves to a position just off the northwest California coast.  By Monday morning, a cold front will be moving down the valley accompanied by showers with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon.

 

It appears the best chance of thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon, even though the center of circulation by that time will be moving into extreme western Nevada.  the back side of the low will still be over the valley floor. Combine that with intense daytime heating courtesy of the high sun angle this time of year and a temperature of near 25 degrees below 0 at 18,000 feet and scattered to isolated thunderstorms will be the result.  Of course, the main concern will be hail with these storms along with localized heavy rain.

 

The chance of showers will begin to diminish Tuesday evening as the low and its cold pool of unstable air moves into Nevada and Utah.  Interestingly enough, another impressive low shows up over the Pacific Northwest about Friday of next week.  For now, it looks like the thrust of this system will be more easterly than southerly even though a dry cold front will move through central California Friday.

 

After Friday, a weak zone of high pressure will take over for a return to more typical weather for the latter part of May.

 

Forecast: A mix of high clouds and sunshine today and tonight.  increasing cloudiness later Sunday.  A chance of showers from mainly Fresno County north Sunday night.  Showers Monday through Tuesday with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon and a greater risk of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.   The chance of showers will diminish Tuesday night.  Partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday morning, becoming partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 87/55/84/58/74 reedley 87/55/87/59/76 Dinuba 86/54/87/57/74
Porterville 88/54/87/60/77 Lindsay 87/54/88/59/76 Delano 88/58/88/61/77
Bakersfield 88/60/88/63/77 taft 86/61/88/63/77 Arvin 88/57/88/60/78
Lamont 87/57/88/61/78 Pixley 87/54/87/58/76 Tulare 86/55/87/58/75
Woodlake 85/54/87/57/75 Hanford 86/57/87/58/76 Orosi 85/53/86/56/76

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Showers and Tstorms

52/72

Wednesday

Partly cloudy

48/80

Thursday

Mostly clear

51/84

Friday

Mostly clear

53/87

Saturday

Mostly clear

53/85

 

Two Week Outlook: May 23 through May 29:  This model is reverting back to more of a high pressure regime over our region with generally above average temperatures during this period.  The chance of rain appears very low.

 

May:  The first month of the dry season will be typically dry, in other words this model is portraying near average precipitation for the month of May.  It also appears the trend of above average temperatures will continue for the month.

 

May, June, July:  Obviously, over the next 90 days precipitation will be largely nonexistent with the usual few exceptions, mainly during the month of May.  Models show the western half of the U.S. having generally above average temperatures.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds this afternoon and evening will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH with local gusts to 20 MPH.  Winds tonight will be generally light and variable.  Winds Sunday will initially be out of the west at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts then will be out of the northwest Sunday night and Monday at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH possible.  Winds Monday night and Tuesday will be variable to 15 MPH but local gusts over 30 MPH are possible in the vicinity of heavier showers or thunderstorms.

 

Rain Discussion: This storm event which will begin Sunday night will have all of the characteristics of a March or April type of spring storm.  The precipitation pattern will be generally showery with a decent rain shadow along the west side of the valley.  The chance of showers will reach Fresno County sometime Sunday night then spread over the entire valley Monday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon.  The center of the cold core low will be overhead Monday night with most models placing the center of circulation over extreme western Nevada Tuesday.  That would still put the valley floor under the cold core low, increasing the chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.  I wouldn’t be surprised if a few of these thunderstorms are on the strong side.  The main risk, of course, will be hail and localized heavy rain.

 

Rainfall amounts will vary widely with this storm from generally less than .10 along the west side to possibly .25 to .33 along the east side of the valley, especially near the Sierra Nevada foothills.  Where thunderstorms occur, well over .50 cannot be ruled out.

 

Incidentally, even though it is mid May, expect between one to two inches of rain in the Sierra from Fresno County north and upwards to 1 inch over the Sequoia National Forecast with more than a foot of snow over the 7,500 foot elevation.

 

Showers will taper off Tuesday evening with only a small chance of showers near the mountains after midnight Tuesday night with dry weather returning Wednesday.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s.  Kern: Mid to upper 40s.  Humidity values ranging from 25%/80% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 25%/70%

 

Actual Humidity range May 15, 2020: Delano, 87%/37%, Porterville, 93%/31%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 40%.  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 60%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford NA, Parlier 1.78, Blackwell Corner 2.01, Arvin 1.88, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 1.79, Delano 1.85. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford NA, Parlier 72, Blackwell 76, Arvin, 73, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 78, Delano 77

Record Temperatures: 103/40. Average Temperatures: 84/53

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 151 +60

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for May so far: 70.0 +3.1

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or 7.51 or -3.41.  Month to Date: .00 -.25

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  7.03, or +.83.  Month to Date: .01 -.10

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 5:49, Sunset: 8:02 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:11

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  81 /  54 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  81 /  53 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  81 /  57 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  81 /  56 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  82 /  54 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  79 /  55 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  80 /  55 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1650 /  78 /  54 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  80 /  51 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1649 /  76 /  58 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  79 /  53 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    7.99    59   16.31   121    13.45    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.86    55   12.51   101    12.43    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    9.34    79   12.10   102    11.88    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    5.81    51    9.99    88    11.41    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    7.51    69    9.55    87    10.92    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    6.51    68    7.69    80     9.57    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.03   113    6.32   102     6.20     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    2.25    51    8.09   184     4.39     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    9.06    73   12.69   102    12.40    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   11.34    92   14.15   115    12.34    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   10.42    77   14.90   109    13.62    13.95

 

Next report: May 17/morning