May 19, 2020
Summary: Yesterday afternoon and evening was characterized by showers and isolated thunderstorms. There were several reports of small hail, generally at or less than .25 of an inch. The air aloft continues to be very cold for this late in the season. The balloon sounding over Oakland taken a couple of hours ago indicated a freezing level of just 6,200 feet.
The center of circulation of the main low has now moved into western Nevada. Showers continue along the southern Sierra Nevada with even a few over the valley floor, mainly in Kern County. The chance of rain today at any given location is quite low. However, the back side of the cold pool of air associated with the current storm system will still be over the San Joaquin Valley. With the intense daytime heating this time of year, widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will again be possible this afternoon. The low will move north/northeast tonight into Idaho, ending the precipitation threat.
The next low pressure system will move through the Pacific Northwest Thursday and Friday, too far to the north to have a direct impact. However, it will blunt the warming trend somewhat. Summertime weather is on the horizon, though, beginning this coming weekend. A strong ridge of upper level high pressure will build eastward into California via the eastern Pacific Ocean. Temperatures well above the 90 degree mark are anticipated by early next week. In fact, upper level high pressure will dominate the pattern next week. Some models show a cut off low off shore, but for now it looks like it will be far enough off shore to not interfere with summer’s return.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today with a small risk of widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon. Partly cloudy tonight and Wednesday morning, but remaining mostly cloudy in Kern County and possibly portions of Tulare County. Becoming mostly clear Wednesday afternoon through Friday. Mostly clear and warmer Friday night through Tuesday.
Short Term:
Madera 72/47/79/50/85 | Reedley 71/46/78/50/86 | Dinuba 71/47/78/50/85 | |
Porterville 72/47/79/50/86 | Lindsay 73/46/78/50/87 | Delano 73/50/79/54/85 | |
Bakersfield 71/53/79/56/87 | Taft 71/54/78/57/85 | Arvin 72/50/79/53/87 | |
Lamont 72/51/79/53/86 | Pixley 72/48/79/51/85 | Tulare 71/46/78/49/84 | |
Woodlake 71/47/79/50/85 | Hanford 72/57/79/53/85 | Orosi 71/46/79/49/84 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Friday
Mostly clear 53/84 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 54/86 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 55/90 |
Monday
Mostly clear 57/93 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 58/95 |
Two Week Outlook: May 25 through May 31: This model is reverting back to more of a high pressure regime over our region with generally above average temperatures during this period. The chance of rain appears very low.
May: The first month of the dry season will be typically dry, in other words this model is portraying near average precipitation for the month of May. It also appears the trend of above average temperatures will continue for the month.
May, June, July: Obviously, over the next 90 days precipitation will be largely nonexistent with the usual few exceptions, mainly during the month of May. Models show the western half of the U.S. having generally above average temperatures.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally variable to 15 MPH today with stronger gusts this afternoon and evening. Winds later tonight will decrease to 3 to 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Wednesday through Friday will be generally out of the northwest afternoons and evenings to around 15 MPH and generally less than 10 MPH during the night and morning hours with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: The following are rainfall totals as of 6:00am: Delano .11, Porterville .27, Arvin .35, Tulare .27, Visalia .24, Parlier .32, Mettler .08, Buttonwillow .03, Bakersfield.15, Hanford .11, Lemoore .04, Reedley .38, Fresno .12, Clovis .39, and Madera .27.
Most locations will be dry today, however the far back side of the low now centered over Nevada will still be arching over the valley, especially the east side. It is possible widely scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms could break out this afternoon. As the low tracks off to the northeast, the chance of precipitation will end by tonight with dry weather for the remainder of the week. Next week also appears to be dry.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid 40s. Kern: Mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 35%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/80%
Actual Humidity range May 18, 2020: Delano, 95%/26%, Porterville, 96%/31%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford NA, Parlier 1.65, Blackwell Corner 1.81, Arvin 1.66, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 1.60, Delano 1.67. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford NA, Parlier 72, Blackwell 76, Arvin, 71, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 78, Delano 76
Record Temperatures: 103/42. Average Temperatures: 85/54
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 163 +57
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 69.8 +2.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or 7.63 or -3.33. Month to Date: .12 -.17
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 7.18, or +.96. Month to Date: .16 +.03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:47, Sunset: 8:04 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:16
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 75 / 54 / 0.20 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 72 / 57 / 0.10 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 73 / 58 / 0.08 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 76 / 59 / 0.04 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 77 / 55 / 0.02 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 78 / 60 / 0.15 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 74 / 60 / 0.24 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1653 / 75 / 59 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 77 / 62 / 0.13 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1650 / 70 / 61 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 72 / 56 / M /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.16 8.29 61 17.20 127 13.50 14.06
MODESTO T 6.86 55 12.78 102 12.50 13.11
MERCED 0.18 9.54 80 12.75 107 11.93 12.50
MADERA 0.10 5.91 52 10.60 92 11.46 12.02
FRESNO 0.07 7.59 69 10.53 96 10.96 11.50
HANFORD 0.04 6.55 68 8.42 88 9.61 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.15 7.18 115 7.08 114 6.22 6.47
BISHOP T 2.25 51 8.37 190 4.41 5.18
SALINAS 0.01 9.07 73 13.13 106 12.43 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 11.36 92 14.58 118 12.37 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.08 10.53 77 15.38 113 13.65 13.95
Next report: May 20/morning