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Forecast

May 20, 2020/report

May 20, 2020

Summary: The center of circulation of the low pressure system that brought active weather the past two days has moved into southern Idaho.  The air aloft remains quite chilly for this late in the season, but is beginning to recover.  The freezing level this morning above Oakland is now at 8,700 feet, up from just over 6,000 feet 24 hours ago.

 

The next system of note will only affect the Pacific Northwest Thursday and Friday.  It will slow the warming trend, even so, temperatures will rise to near seasonal averages Thursday.  Over the weekend, upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific will build in from the west, allowing temperatures to rise accordingly.  Near 90 degree weather is expected as early as Sunday with readings pushing the century mark by Tuesday.

 

Even though modeling is characterizing the pattern next week as being governed by high pressure.  However, some models place a cut off low just off the southern California coast by next Friday.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday.  Mostly clear Sunday night through Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 77/50/85/53/85 Reedley 79/51/86/53/86 Dinuba 77/50/85/52/85
Porterville 77/49/86/52/86 Lindsay 78/49/85/52/85 Delano 77/52/85/55/86
Bakersfield 77/57/86/59/86 Taft 77/58/85/60/85 Arvin 78/58/86/56/86
Lamont 77/54/86/56/86 Pixley 77/50/86/54/85 Tulare 77/49/84/52/85
Woodlake 77/49/85/53/85 Hanford 78/52/86/54/85 Orosi 77/48/85/52/85

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Mostly clear

55/87

Sunday

Mostly clear

57/91

Monday

Mostly clear

57/94

Tuesday

Mostly clear

59/97

Wednesday

Mostly clear

61/98

 

Two Week Outlook: May 27 through June 2:  This model is actually showing a chance of above average rainfall for the southern half of California and the Desert Southwest, probably due to a projected cut off low situation.  Temperatures, however, are expected to remain above seasonal averages.

 

May:  The first month of the dry season will be typically dry, in other words this model is portraying near average precipitation for the month of May.  It also appears the trend of above average temperatures will continue for the month.

 

May, June, July:  Obviously, over the next 90 days precipitation will be largely nonexistent with the usual few exceptions, mainly during the month of May.  Models show the western half of the U.S. having generally above average temperatures.

 

Winds Discussion:  winds during the afternoons and evenings will be generally out of the northwest at around 6 to 12 MPH through Saturday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally variable to around 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid 40s.  Kern: Mid 40s.  Humidity values ranging from 30%/90% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 30%/75%

Actual Humidity range May 19, 2020: Delano, 79%/34%, Porterville, 92%/31%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 90%.  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford NA, Parlier 1.63, Blackwell Corner 1.74, Arvin 1.62, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 1.60, Delano 1.63. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford NA, Parlier 71, Blackwell 76, Arvin, 71, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 77, Delano 75

Record Temperatures: 102/44. Average Temperatures: 85/54

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 163 +51

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for May so far: 69.4 +2.0

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or 7.63 or -3.34.  Month to Date: .12 -.18

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  7.18, or +.96.  Month to Date: .16 +.03

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 5:47, Sunset: 8:05 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:17

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  72 /  49 /    T /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  73 /  47 / 0.11 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  71 /  51 / 0.04 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  74 /  50 / 0.07 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  75 /  46 /    T /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  74 /  54 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  74 /  51 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1653 /  72 /  54 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  73 /  50 / 0.02 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1653 /  71 /  55 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1700 /  71 /  50 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    8.33    62   18.10   134    13.52    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.87    55   12.80   102    12.52    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    9.54    80   13.10   110    11.95    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    6.02    52   10.91    95    11.47    12.02

FRESNO                           T    7.63    70   11.11   101    10.97    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    6.62    69    8.69    90     9.62    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                      T    7.18   115    7.41   119     6.22     6.47

BISHOP                           T    2.25    51    8.37   189     4.42     5.18

SALINAS                          T    9.07    73   13.64   110    12.44    12.83

PASO ROBLES                      T   11.36    92   14.80   120    12.37    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   10.53    77   15.55   114    13.66    13.95

Next report: May 21/morning