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Forecast

May 26, 2020/report

May 26, 2020

Summary: Temperatures at this hour are running anywhere from 6 to 8 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago.  What is taking place above the valley floor is quite telling.  The temperature at Sandburg at a temperature of 4,100 feet is 68 degrees while Bear Peak at the 8,200 foot elevation is at 60 degrees.  The balloon sounding at Oakland a short time ago indicated a freezing level of 15,400 feet.  All of this is indicative of a heat wave which will begin today and last through Thursday with at least near record highs.  The center of circulation of upper level high pressure is just off the southern California coast while a large closed low circulation is roughly 1,000 miles to the west/southwest of the central coast.  Over the next 72 hours, the  high will be almost directly overhead, resulting in extremely hot temperatures for this early in the season.  The heat wave’s end will set up Friday as an off shore low approaches the central coast.

 

Initially, a strong surge of marine air will push inland Thursday night and Friday, possibly lowering temperatures back into double digits.  However, if the marine air does not reach the south valley in time, temperatures could reach the century mark in the south valley for one more day.

 

Models track this low northeastward through northern California over the weekend.  There is some indication scattered showers will break out over much of northern California, possibly affecting northern sections of central California, especially over the mountain areas.  Much cooler conditions along with periods of gusty winds can be expected over the weekend as the low is absorbed by a trough of low pressure moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest and northern California early next week.

 

Forecast: Clear skies and hot conditions through Thursday.  Mostly clear, breezy, and cooler Friday.  Partly cloudy Friday night through Saturday.  Variable cloudiness Saturday night through Monday with a slight chance of showers, mainly from Fresno County north.  Mostly clear Tuesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 103/66/105/68/106 Reedley 103/65/105/67/105 Dinuba 101/65/104/66/105
Porterville 103/65/105/66/105 Lindsay 102/64/105/66/105 Delano 103/68/106/68/106
Bakersfield 102/74/105/74/106 Taft 102/75/104/76/104 Arvin 104/70/106/71/106
Lamont 103/70/105/71/106 Pixley 102/68/105/69/105 Tulare 102/64/104/67/104
Woodlake 101/64/104/67/104 Hanford 103/68/105/69/105 Orosi 101/64/104/66/105

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

Mostly clear

67/100

Saturday

Partly cloudy

58/84

Sunday

Variable clouds

54/82

Monday

Variable clouds

54/88

Tuesday

Mostly clear

55/87

 

Two Week Outlook: June 2 through June 8:  This model, interestingly enough, is showing above average temperatures, but also an above average chance of rainfall.

 

June:  The month of June brings us into the dry season for central California.  The chance of rain during the  month will be very low on any given day.  This model indicates we can expect above average temperatures for the month.

 

June, July, August:  What can you say about the summer months in the valley except it will be hot and dry.  Of course, this summer will be no exception.  Precipitation will be near average, which is next to none.  This model indicates the next three months will have above average temperatures, but what else is new?

 

Winds Discussion: Winds through Thursday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH afternoons and evenings and mainly out of the northwest.  Winds will be light to calm during the night and morning hours.  Winds Thursday night and Friday will initially pick up out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.  Winds exceeding 30 MPH are likely along the west side Friday.

 

Rain Discussion: A low pressure system is projected to  move from southwest to northeast through northern California over the weekend.  There will be a good chance of showers to our north with even a slight chance over central California, mainly over the mountains and from Fresno County north.  Currently, that chance appears pretty low, but it is something worth monitoring.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s  Kern:  Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 15%/60% at Visalia.  Bakersfield 15%/45%

Actual Humidity range May 25, 2020: Delano, 69%/23%, Porterville, 85%/14%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford NA, Parlier 1.76, Blackwell Corner 1.82, Arvin 1.91, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 1.84, Delano 1.80. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford NA, Parlier 70, Blackwell 77, Arvin, 72, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 76, Delano 75

Record Temperatures: 103/40. Average Temperatures: 87/55

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 196 +48

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for May so far: 69.6 +1.5

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or 7.63 or -3.40.  Month to Date: .12 -.24

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  7.18, or +.93.  Month to Date: .16 +.00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 5:43, Sunset: 8:09 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:25

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  97 /  56 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  96 /  58 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  98 /  67 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  98 /  56 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  99 /  57 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DHM    /  98 /  64 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  98 /  59 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /  95 /  62 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  98 /  58 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1650 /  98 /  70 / 0.00 /

 

 

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    8.33    61   18.32   135    13.61    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.87    54   12.98   103    12.62    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    9.54    79   13.20   110    12.01    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    6.02    52   11.39    99    11.51    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    7.63    69   11.64   106    11.03    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    6.62    68    8.76    90     9.68    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.18   115    7.48   120     6.25     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    2.25    50    8.42   189     4.46     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    9.07    73   13.72   110    12.49    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   11.36    92   14.87   120    12.41    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   10.53    77   15.57   114    13.69    13.95

 

Next report: May 27/morning