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Forecast

May 27, 2020/report

May 27, 2020

Summary: Today and Thursday will be as hot as you’ll ever see it for this early in the summer season. Many locations will be 20 degrees above average.  Oftentimes you can look to the higher elevations to discern what will occur on the valley floor and today is one of those days.  Sandburg, for example, at an elevation of 4,100 feet was reporting a temperature of 72 degrees as of 6:00am and even as high as 8,200 feet at Bear Peak, 63 degrees was their balmy 6:00am temperature.

 

In the meantime, along the coast the marine layer has been crushed down to roughly 500 feet, according to the latest sounding at Monterey.  Very strong upper level high pressure is currently overhead.  Meanwhile, well out over the Pacific is a large low pressure circulation which will be the catalyst for a radical pattern shift beginning Friday.  Initially, a strong surge of marine air will move through the Delta then over the gaps and passes along the Coast Range and into the west side of the San Joaquin Valley Friday.  Temperatures from Fresno County southward may still reach the century mark Friday, but most locations north of Fresno County will dip into the low to mid 90s Friday.

 

The strong high currently overhead will shift eastward.  Most models place the center of circulation of that off shore low roughly 250 miles west of Monterey by midday Friday then move it northeastward into northern California Saturday where scattered showers will be possible from a Bay Area/Sacramento line northward.  By Sunday, the low will be absorbed by a trough of low pressure digging southward from the Gulf of Alaska and into California by Monday.  Some models are now picking up on a secondary low developing somewhere over or just off the California coast late Monday through Wednesday.  if this happens, we’d have an increasing chance of showers over the mountain areas with even a minimal chance of showers over the valley floor.  Measurable rain is unusual in June but not unheard of.  Expect strong, gusty winds to pick up along the west side of the valley late Thursday night and Friday with periods of breezy weather at times through the weekend as a strong onshore flow continues.

 

As you might imagine, the unusually hot temperatures we are currently experiencing will be replaced by much cooler temperatures over the weekend as readings fall into the 80s.  some models actually have us in the upper 70s to the lower 80s by Monday.

 

Forecast: Clear and hot through Thursday.  Mostly clear Friday, becoming breezy in the afternoon.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night.  Partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday night and much cooler.  Variable cloudiness Monday through Tuesday night with a small chance of scattered showers.  Partly cloudy Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 105/67/106/68/97 Reedley 105/66/106/67/100 Dinuba 104/65/105/66/100
Porterville 106/67/106/68/101 Lindsay 105/66/106/67/101 Delano 106/71/107/71/100
Bakersfield 106/75/107/75/102 Taft 106/76/105/75/100 Arvin 107/71/107/72/102
Lamont 105/72/106/73/101 Pixley 105/67/106/68/100 Tulare 104/66/105/67/99
Woodlake 105/67/105/68/100 Hanford 106/68/107/69/99 Orosi 104/65/105/66/99

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Partly cloudy

55/86

Sunday

Partly cloudy

54/82

Monday

Slight chance of showers

57/80

Tuesday

Slight chance of showers

55/82

Wednesday

Partly cloudy

53/82

 

Two Week Outlook: June 2 through June 8:  This model, interestingly enough, is showing above average temperatures, but also an above average chance of rainfall.

 

June:  The month of June brings us into the dry season for central California.  The chance of rain during the  month will be very low on any given day.  This model indicates we can expect above average temperatures for the month.

 

June, July, August:  What can you say about the summer months in the valley except it will be hot and dry.  Of course, this summer will be no exception.  Precipitation will be near average, which is next to none.  This model indicates the next three months will have above average temperatures, but what else is new?

 

Winds Discussion: Winds through Thursday will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at 5 to 12 MPH.  winds during the night and  morning hours will be light and variable.  Winds Thursday night and Friday will begin to increase, initially out of the west, at 15 to 25 MPH.  gusts to 35 MPH will be possible in western Kings and Fresno Counties and locally elsewhere.  Winds Friday night through Saturday will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts possible.

 

Rain Discussion: The pattern will revert from extremely hot to very mild with even a minimal chance of scattered showers from late Monday through Tuesday night.  considering the time of year, a significant trough of low pressure will move out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California.  There are models suggesting a secondary low will develop either over California or just off shore.  In theory, this could up the ante.  For now, I would place the chance of measurable rain at any given location at 20% but this is an evolving pattern and the forecast is subject to change.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s  Kern:  Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 15%/60% at Visalia.  Bakersfield 15%/45%

Actual Humidity range May 26, 2020: Delano, 68%/23%, Porterville, 66%/14%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford NA, Parlier 1.84, Blackwell Corner 1.93, Arvin 2.00, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 1.92, Delano 1.89. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford NA, Parlier 71, Blackwell 78, Arvin, 73, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 77, Delano 77

Record Temperatures: 104/46. Average Temperatures: 87/55

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 213 +58

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for May so far: 70.1 +1.8

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or 7.63 or -3.42.  Month to Date: .12 -.26

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  7.18, or +.93.  Month to Date: .16 +.00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 5:43, Sunset: 8:10 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:27

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 / 101 /  60 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 / 101 /  63 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 102 /  72 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 102 /  62 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 104 /  62 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 102 /  69 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 / 101 /  63 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1626 /  99 /  67 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 / 102 /  64 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1649 / 104 /  65 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 / 100 /  71 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    8.33    61   18.37   135    13.62    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.87    54   13.35   106    12.64    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    9.54    79   13.27   110    12.02    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    6.02    52   11.42    99    11.51    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    7.63    69   11.85   107    11.05    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    6.62    68    9.50    98     9.69    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.18   115    7.57   121     6.25     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    2.25    50    8.42   188     4.47     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    9.07    73   13.80   110    12.50    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   11.36    92   14.88   120    12.41    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   10.53    77   15.68   114    13.70    13.95

 

Next report: May 28/morning