May 29, 2020
Summary: Even though it is a very warm morning out there, the beginning stages of a rapid cooling trend are underway. The marine layer has deepened along the coast and is up to 2,500 feet. Winds through Pacheco Pass are currently sustained at 20 MPH out of the west. Up in the Delta, winds at TAFB are sustained out of the southwest at 24 MPH, gusting to 30.
Clouds are beginning to increase ahead of an approaching low pressure system now located roughly 300 miles west of the central coast. A few locations, mainly in Kern County, may reach the 100 degree mark this afternoon as the marine air will reach there last. However, north of that line, readings will drop into the mid to upper 90s.
The low will track northeastward into northern California Saturday. a few light showers are possible north of roughly a Monterey/Merced line. Our region will see variable amounts of cloud cover from time to time and much cooler temperatures as readings drop into the low to mid 80s Saturday and Sunday.
As the marine layer surges inland later today and tonight, strong gusty winds can be expected along the west side of the valley with breezy conditions elsewhere. The low will be absorbed by a trough of low pressure digging southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska Saturday night and Sunday. By Tuesday, a new low will be developing off the central coast. Models yesterday showed this system moving inland at mid week through central and southern California. Some models this morning, however, indicate the low will drop southward along the coast, eventually moving inland through southern California around Thursday night or Friday. This pattern will be conducive for the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms along the Sierra Nevada. However, if the main area of low pressure remains off shore, as some models are now suggesting, the chance of precipitation on the valley floor will be very low.
By next weekend, a persistent trough of low pressure will remain off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a west/northwest flow aloft into California. This will keep temperatures close to seasonal values with typically dry weather.
Forecast: Partly cloudy through Sunday night and much cooler. Becoming breezy this afternoon and tonight. Variable clouds at times Monday through Thursday. A slight chance of isolated showers Tuesday night through Wednesdays night. Mostly clear Thursday night and Friday.
|Madera 95/56/83/54/84||Reedley 97/56/83/54/85||Dinuba 97/55/83/53/84|
|Porterville 98/57/85/55/85||Lindsay 97/55/84/53/85||Delano 98/59/85/57/86|
|Bakersfield 100/61/86/58/85||Taft 98/63/85/58/85||Arvin 101/58/86/57/86|
|Lamont 100/58/85/57/86||Pixley 98/58/84/56/85||Tulare 97/56/83/54/84|
|Woodlake 97/55/84/53/85||Hanford 98/58/84/55/85||Orosi 97/55/83/53/84|
Seven Day Forecast:
Slight chance of showers
Slight chance of showers
Two Week Outlook: June 5 through June 11: This model is indicating a persistent trough of low pressure off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a dry west/southwest flow aloft will bring near seasonal temperatures and dry conditions.
June: The month of June brings us into the dry season for central California. The chance of rain during the month will be very low on any given day. This model indicates we can expect above average temperatures for the month.
June, July, August: What can you say about the summer months in the valley except it will be hot and dry. Of course, this summer will be no exception. Precipitation will be near average, which is next to none. This model indicates the next three months will have above average temperatures, but what else is new?
Winds Discussion: Winds along the west side will begin to increase later today to 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to near 35 MPH possible later this afternoon and tonight. elsewhere, winds will be mainly out of the west then northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH possible. Winds Saturday through Monday will occasionally be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times along with periods of lighter winds.
Rain Discussion: Low pressure off the central coast will track northeastward into northern California Saturday. There is a low chance of a few light showers north of a Monterey/Merced line, but for now it appears the rest of the valley will remain dry. By Tuesday night and Wednesday of next week, a new low will develop off the central coast. Most models this morning track this system off shore then inland through southern California Thursday night and Friday. There is a very high chance of dry weather continuing, but I do believe I should include a slight chance of showers in the forecast for Tuesday night through Wednesday night of next week as the low tracks to our west.
Late next week through the following weekend will see the return of dry weather longer term.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/85% at Visalia. Bakersfield 25%/75%
Actual Humidity range May 28, 2020: Delano, 91%/26%, Porterville, 70%/17%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 50%. Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.15, Parlier 1.96, Blackwell Corner 2.10, Arvin 2.15, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 2.03, Delano 1.97. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford NA, Parlier 73, Blackwell 80, Arvin, 74, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 80, Delano 78
Record Temperatures: 107/45. Average Temperatures: 88/56
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 254 +85
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 71.2+2.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or 7.63 or -3.44. Month to Date: .12 -.28
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 7.18, or +.92. Month to Date: .16 -.01
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:42, Sunset: 8:11 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:28
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 106 / 65 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 105 / 61 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 106 / 71 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 106 / 65 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 107 / 64 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 105 / 75 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 105 / 65 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / M / 69 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 105 / 65 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 102 / 78 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 103 / 70 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 8.33 61 18.37 135 13.65 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.87 54 13.35 105 12.67 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.54 79 13.27 110 12.04 12.50
MADERA 0.00 6.02 52 11.42 99 11.53 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 7.63 69 11.85 107 11.07 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 6.62 68 9.50 98 9.71 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.18 115 7.57 121 6.26 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 2.25 50 8.42 188 4.48 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 9.07 72 13.80 110 12.52 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.36 91 14.88 120 12.42 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.53 77 15.68 114 13.71 13.95
Next report: May 30/morning