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Forecast

May 28, 2020/report

May 28, 2020

Summary: This will be the last day of this early season blistering heat wave.  Monitoring my favored stations over the mountains, we find very warm air once again this morning.  Sandburg at 4,100 feet was reporting 72 degrees as of 6:00am and even way up at 8,200 feet at Bear Peak, the temperature was 66.

 

Satellite imagery foretells the beginning of a major pattern change.  A large closed low is located several hundred miles to the southwest of Santa Barbara and is moving northeast.  Most models place the storm’s center of circulation roughly 250 miles west of Monterey by midday Friday.

 

Temperatures will begin to come down Friday, especially over the northern half of the valley, where a strong surge of marine air will initially flow through the Delta then through the gaps and passes further south along the Coast Range.  This will generate gusty west to northwest winds along the west side of the valley.  Temperatures from Fresno County south may still reach the century mark Friday, but that will still be cooler than today’s expectations.

 

The low will move northeastward into northern California Saturday, increasing the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms along the Sierra Nevada and possibly a few showers in the valley from Merced County north.  By Sunday, the low will be absorbed by a trough of low pressure moving in from the Gulf of Alaska.  Temperatures will fall from the 105 degree range today into the mid to upper 80s Saturday and lower 80s Sunday through Tuesday.

 

Some models continue to suggest the formation of a new low circulation just off the central coast Monday night.  it is projected to move inland through central and southern California Tuesday and Wednesday.  once again, this would increase the chance of active weather over the mountain areas with even a low chance of scattered showers over the valley floor.  For now, we’ll put that chance at no more than 20%.

 

Later next week, temperatures will begin to increase somewhat.  Even so, pressure patterns along the west coast will remain fairly low, maintaining near average temperatures for early June.

 

Forecast: Clear and hot today.  Clear and a little less hot Friday.  Partly cloudy Friday through Sunday night and much cooler.  Variable cloudiness at times Monday through Wednesday.  a slight chance of scattered showers Tuesday through Wednesday.  partly cloudy Wednesday night.  mostly clear Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 105/66/97/57/84 Reedley 106/67/99/58/85 Dinuba 104/65/99/57/84
Porterville 106/66/100/59/86 Lindsay 106/65/100/57/85 Delano 107/68/101/61/86
Bakersfield 106/74/101/62/87 Taft 104/78/100/68/86 Arvin 107/73/102/64/88
Lamont 106/72/101/63/87 Pixley 106/68/101/60/86 Tulare 105/65/99/57/84
Woodlake 105/65/99/57/85 Hanford 106/67/100/58/85 Orosi 104/65/99/57/86

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Partly cloudy

55/82

Monday

Variable clouds

58/82

Tuesday

Slight chance of showers

59/83

Wednesday

Slight chance of showers

56/84

Thursday

Mostly clear

55/89

 

Two Week Outlook: June 2 through June 8:  This model, interestingly enough, is showing above average temperatures, but also an above average chance of rainfall.

 

June:  The month of June brings us into the dry season for central California.  The chance of rain during the month will be very low on any given day.  This model indicates we can expect above average temperatures for the month.

 

June, July, August:  What can you say about the summer months in the valley except it will be hot and dry.  Of course, this summer will be no exception.  Precipitation will be near average, which is next to none.  This model indicates the next three months will have above average temperatures, but what else is new?

 

Winds Discussion: Winds this afternoon will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH.  Winds will be generally light tonight.  Winds Friday and Friday night will initially increase out of the west at 10 to 20 MPH.  local gusts to 35 MPH are possible along the west side, especially near the base of the Coast Range.  Winds Saturday through Sunday will periodically be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts along with periods of lighter winds.

 

Rain Discussion: It appears any shower activity from a closed low moving into northern California Friday night and Saturday will be from Merced County north, so for now we’ll keep the short term forecast dry.

 

We are also watching model information suggesting a trough of low pressure will move out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California Monday through Wednesday.  For the second day in a row, models are indicating the formation of another closed low which would move through central and southern California Tuesday through Wednesday for an increasing chance of shower activity over the mountain regions and even a slight chance of widely scattered showers over the valley floor.  For now, I’ll put the chance of measurable rain at any given location at no more than 20% or so.

 

After Wednesday, a dry pattern will return.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern:  Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 15%/60% at Visalia.  Bakersfield 15%/50%

Actual Humidity range May 27, 2020: Delano, 74%/27%, Porterville, 70%/17%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford NA, Parlier 1.90, Blackwell Corner 2.01, Arvin 2.07, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 1.98, Delano 1.94. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford NA, Parlier 72, Blackwell 79, Arvin, 74, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 79, Delano 78

Record Temperatures: 107/45. Average Temperatures: 87/56

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 233 +71

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for May so far: 70.6 +2.3

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or 7.63 or -3.43.  Month to Date: .12 -.27

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  7.18, or +.92.  Month to Date: .16 -.01

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 5:42, Sunset: 8:11 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:27

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 / 105 /  67 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 / 105 /  65 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 105 /  74 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 105 /  65 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 106 /  65 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 104 /  74 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 / 104 /  66 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1627 / 100 /  73 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 / 105 /  66 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1653 / 103 /  80 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 / 104 /  74 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    8.33    61   18.37   135    13.63    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.87    54   13.35   105    12.66    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    9.54    79   13.27   110    12.03    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    6.02    52   11.42    99    11.52    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    7.63    69   11.85   107    11.06    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    6.62    68    9.50    98     9.70    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.18   115    7.57   121     6.26     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    2.25    50    8.42   188     4.47     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    9.07    73   13.80   110    12.51    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   11.36    91   14.88   120    12.42    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   10.53    77   15.68   114    13.70    13.95

 

Next report: May 29/morning