une 1, 2020
Summary: This will be a week of wide swings in temperatures. Models have been having a difficult time in handling the formation of a closed low which is now developing several hundred miles southwest of Santa Barbara. The counterclockwise circulation around the low will generate a southerly flow. That, in conjunction with upper level high pressure upwelling to the east of the low, will generate a significant warming trend through Thursday. In fact, it appears a temporary return to triple digits is likely Wednesday and Thursday.
The southerly flow is also carrying a good amount of mid and high level clouds which will stream overhead from time to time. Occasionally, the cloud cover may be dense enough for virga to be visible. Virga is rain falling but not reaching the ground.
After Thursday, a rapid swing in temperatures will again occur as models now project the low off the south coast will move inland through southern California Thursday night and Friday. Even though in all likelihood the forecast will remain dry, a slight chance of sprinkles or isolated showers is possible on Friday as the low passes to our south. The marine layer will rapidly deepen Thursday night and surge inland with another round of strong, gusty winds along the west side of the valley.
Over the weekend, a strong trough of low pressure for the time of year will move out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the western U.S. for well below average temperatures from Saturday through Tuesday. Almost daily chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the high Sierra.
Beginning Wednesday of next week, upper level high pressure will again take over as a more typical summer pattern takes shape.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness at times through Friday. A slight chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers Thursday night and Friday. Partly cloudy Friday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 88/58/97/63/101 | Reedley 88/59/97/63/102 | Dinuba 86/57/95/62/101 |
| Porterville 89/57/97/63/102 | Lindsay 87/57/96/62/102 | Delano 89/60/97/65/101 |
| Bakersfield 88/65/96/70/102 | Taft 87/68/96/74/101 | Arvin 90/62/97/68/102 |
| Lamont 89/63/96/69/101 | Pixley 87/58/97/64/101 | Tulare 86/57/96/62/101 |
| Woodlake 87/58/97/64/101 | Hanford 89/60/97/65/102 | Orosi 86/56/95/62/101 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Variable clouds 65/101 |
Friday
Sprinkles possible 63/91 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 55/83 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 52/82 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 49/82 |
Two Week Outlook: June 8 through June 14: An early summer type pattern is evident on this model. Temperatures will rise to above average with dry conditions continuing.
June: The month of June brings us into the dry season for central California. The chance of rain during the month will be very low on any given day. This model indicates we can expect above average temperatures for the month.
June, July, August: What can you say about the summer months in the valley except it will be hot and dry. Of course, this summer will be no exception. Precipitation will be near average, which is next to none. This model indicates the next three months will have above average temperatures, but what else is new?
Winds Discussion: Through Wednesday night, winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH and mainly out of the northwest during the afternoons and evenings. By Thursday evening, winds will begin to increase out of the west at 15 to 30 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds elsewhere will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain Discussion: A low pressure system off the southern California coast will move inland through southern California Thursday night and Friday. The chance of measurable rain is very low, but I cannot rule out sprinkles or isolated light showers. Dry conditions will return Friday night and will continue indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/75% at Visalia. Bakersfield 30%/65%
Actual Humidity range May 31, 2020: Delano, 83%/44%, Porterville, 86%/39%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 30%. Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.97, Parlier 1.88, Blackwell Corner 1.99, Arvin 2.05, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 1.95, Delano 1.91. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 73, Parlier 75, Blackwell 82, Arvin, 76, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 83, Delano 78
Record Temperatures: 105/44. Average Temperatures: 88/56
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 279 +90
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 71.3 +2.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or 7.63 or -3.47. Month to Date: .12 -.31
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 7.18, or +.91. Month to Date: .16 -.02
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:41, Sunset: 8:13 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:32
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 80 / 58 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 81 / 54 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 81 / 60 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 79 / 58 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 81 / 53 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 83 / 59 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 80 / 55 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 82 / 52 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1651 / 82 / 57 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 8.35 61 18.37 134 13.68 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.88 54 13.35 105 12.71 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.54 79 13.27 110 12.06 12.50
MADERA 0.00 6.02 52 11.42 99 11.54 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 7.63 69 11.85 107 11.10 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 6.62 68 9.50 98 9.74 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.18 115 7.57 121 6.27 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 2.25 50 8.44 188 4.50 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 9.16 73 13.80 110 12.54 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.37 91 14.88 120 12.43 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.53 77 15.68 114 13.72 13.95
Next report: June 2/morning