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Forecast

June 24, 2020/report

June 24, 2020

Summary: The center of circulation of a relatively strong upper high is just off the northern Baja, California coast.  A very warm bubble of subsiding air continues to drive temperatures well above the century mark.  The freezing level taken over Oakland a few hours ago was 16,200 feet.  The marine layer is roughly the same as yesterday at this time at 1800 feet at Monterey.  The difference in pressure between San Francisco and Las Vegas  is only 3.4 millibars.  That’s enough to tug a minimal amount of sea breeze into the Delta with no impact on the remainder of the valley.

 

High clouds continue to move in from the southwest.  Otherwise mostly clear skies will continue indefinitely.  A little weak ripple of low pressure is penetrating the Pacific Northwest and will move into the Great Basin late today through Thursday.  The combination of intense heating over California’s interior and the evaporation of the snow pack along the Sierra Nevada should trigger isolated thunderstorms over the back country of the Sierra Nevada the next couple of afternoons.

 

The next major change in the pattern will occur during the second half of the weekend as models continue to show a significant low pressure system dropping from western Canada and into the Pacific Northwest Saturday night.   it will center over the Great Basin Sunday through Monday.  Initially, this will result in a strong push of coastal air over the Coast Range and into the valley, possibly as early as late Saturday, resulting in gusty winds and much cooler temperatures early next week.  Most of the models show the low pushing into the Rockies by early Tuesday, allowing high pressure over the eastern Pacific to build in for a rapid warming trend beginning Wednesday.  my confidence level in the period of Wednesday through the following weekend is pretty low due to modeling differences.  For now, though, I’m leaning towards another round of hot weather late next week.

 

Forecast: Other than periods of high clouds at times, it will be mostly clear and hot through Saturday.  mostly clear, breezy, and much cooler Sunday through Monday.  Mostly clear Monday night through Wednesday with a warming trend.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 103/68/103/69/104 Reedley 104/69/104/70/105` Dinuba 103/67/103/68/104
Porterville 105/70/105/71/105 Lindsay 104/67/104/69/105 Delano 105/71/105/72/106
Bakersfield 105/78/105/77/105 Taft 103/80/104/81/105 Arvin 105/73/105/74/106
Lamont 104/73/105/75/105 Pixley 104/69/104/70/105 Tulare 103/67/103/68/103
Woodlake 104/69/104/70/105 Hanford 105/70/105/71/105 Orosi 103/67/104/68/104

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Mostly clear

70/105

Sunday

Mostly clear

62/88

Monday

Mostly clear

55/86

Tuesday

Mostly clear

54/91

Wednesday

Mostly clear

62/99

 

Two Week Outlook: June 30 through July 6:  This model indicates a predominant area of low pressure will be in place, especially over the interior west, resulting in a relatively strong on shore flow.  Temperatures will range marginally below average with typical dry conditions continuing.

 

June:  The month of June brings us into the dry season for central California.  The chance of rain during the month will be very low on any given day.  This model indicates we can expect above average temperatures for the month.

 

June, July, August:  What can you say about the summer months in the valley except it will be hot and dry.  Of course, this summer will be no exception.  Precipitation will be near average, which is next to none.  This model indicates the next three months will have above average temperatures, but what else is new?

 

Winds Discussion: Winds during the afternoons and evenings through Friday will be mostly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH,  Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally light and variable.  By Saturday evening, winds will initially increase out of the west at 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH possible, mainly along the west side.  Expect elevated wind conditions Sunday through Monday.

 

Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 50s to the lower 60s. Kern: Mid to upper 50s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/65% at Visalia.  Bakersfield 20%/55%

Actual Humidity range June 23, 2020: Delano, 60%/31%, Porterville, 77%/20%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 90%.  Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 90%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.25, Parlier 2.02, Blackwell Corner 2.17, Arvin 2.24, Orange Cove 2.20, Porterville 2.09, Delano 2.01. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 73, Parlier 75, Blackwell 87, Arvin, 78, Orange Cove 80, Porterville 81, Delano 81

Record Temperatures: 110/51. Average Temperatures: 94/61

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 533 +137

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for June so far: 75.8 +1.9

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or 7.63 or -3.67.  Month to Date: .00 -.20

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  7.20, or +.86.  Month to Date: .02 -.05

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 5:42, Sunset: 8:22 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:41

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 / 100 /  65 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 / 100 /  61 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 101 /  71 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 100 /  64 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 102 /  62 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 100 /  71 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 / 100 /  65 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 / 100 /  63 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  99 /  66 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    8.35    61   18.37   134    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.94    54   13.35   104    12.82    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    9.54    78   13.27   109    12.19    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    6.02    51   11.42    98    11.71    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    7.63    68   11.85   105    11.30    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    6.62    67    9.50    96     9.88    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.20   114    7.80   123     6.34     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    2.25    48    8.47   182     4.65     5.18

SALINAS                          T    9.16    73   13.80   109    12.62    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   11.37    91   14.88   120    12.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   10.61    77   15.68   114    13.75    13.95

Next report: June 25/morning