August 12, 2020
Summary: For the first time this summer, tropical moisture will work its way into central California courtesy of hurricane Elida. Elida is moving northwest several hundred miles off the Baja peninsula and will begin to weaken later today. She will turn into a tropical storm Thursday and a depression Friday. Models continue to indicate this morning that, as the storm unwinds, moisture will be caught up in the southwesterly flow aloft. Of interest also is a weak upper low off the central coast which could add enough lift to the atmosphere for a few sprinkles or even an isolated light shower. However, the chance of rain at any given location will continue to be very low.
Temperature forecasting for Thursday will be pretty tricky as temps will depend on the density of the cloud cover. By Friday, a strong high will shift westward into Arizona and southern California. The mercilessly hot summer over the Desert Southwest and inland sections of southern California will continue for the next week. A classic valley heat wave will also develop in the San Joaquin Valley as the high builds northwestward.
From Friday through Tuesday, temperatures at most locations will range between 104 and 108. Models are also showing monsoon moisture working its way from south to north along the western side of the high. This will increase the chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada beginning Sunday, and continuing through Wednesday of next week.
Periods of mid and high level clouds will also be prevalent over the valley floor.
Forecast: Clear and hot today. Mostly clear tonight. Variable cloudiness Thursday through Thursday night with a slight chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers. Mostly clear and hot Friday through Saturday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday through Wednesday and continued hot.
Short Term:
| Madera 100/64/99/72/105 | Reedley 101/65/98/73/105 | Dinuba 100/64/97/71/104 |
| Porterville 101/65/98/73/105 | Lindsay 100/64/97/71/104 | Delano 102/66/98/74/106 |
| Bakersfield 103/78/98/82/106 | Taft 101/77/99/82/105 | Arvin 103/71/97/81/106 |
| Lamont 102/72/98/81/105 | Pixley 101/65/98/72/104 | Tulare 100/64/97/70/104 |
| Woodlake 100/65/98/71/104 | Hanford 101/66/98/73/105 | Orosi 100/64/97/70/104 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 72/106 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 73/105 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 72/103 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 71/102 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 70/104 |
Two Week Outlook: August 18 through August 24: This model indicates upper level high pressure over the desert southwest will be the more dominant feature, resulting in at least marginally above average temperatures. The monsoon is still nowhere to be found, so dry dusty conditions will continue.
August: Typically, especially this time of year, long range outlooks by NOAA reflect the global warming madness. This model indicates above average temperatures and largely dry conditions.
August, September, October: Just like the 30 day outlook, this longer range outlook reflects above average temperatures everywhere, including California. This model does not reflect either above or below average precipitation, although as we head into September, we will have to keep a closer eye on the tropics.
Winds Discussion: Winds through Saturday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH afternoons and evenings and 3 to 6 MPH nights and early mornings with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/65% at Visalia. Bakersfield 15%/40%
Actual Humidity range August 11, 2020: Delano, 56%/21%, Porterville, 79%/26%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 50%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.84, Parlier 1.84, Blackwell Corner 2.17, Arvin NA, Orange Cove 1.97, Porterville 1.82, Delano 1.75. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 80, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 80, Orange Cove 85, Porterville 77, Delano 76
Record Temperatures: 110/55. Average Temperatures: 98/64
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1335 +260
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for August so far: 80.4 +1.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or 7.63 or -3.69. Month to Date: .00 -.00
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 7.20, or +.84. Month to Date: .00 -.01
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:15, Sunset: 7:52 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:39
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 97 / 64 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 100 / 64 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 101 / 72 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 101 / 63 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 103 / 64 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 101 / 74 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 98 / 64 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 99 / 69 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 99 / 66 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 96 / 64 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 8.35 61 18.37 134 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.94 54 13.35 104 12.83 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.54 78 13.27 109 12.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 6.02 51 11.42 97 11.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 7.63 67 11.85 105 11.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 6.62 67 9.50 96 9.91 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.20 113 7.80 123 6.36 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 2.25 46 8.47 173 4.89 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 9.18 73 13.80 109 12.64 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.37 91 14.88 119 12.47 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.61 77 15.68 114 13.79 13.95
Next report: August 13/morning