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Forecast

August 13, 2020/report

August 13, 2020

Summary:  The remnants of former hurricane Elida are currently moving into Kern County.  Doppler radar is indicating scattered sprinkles, or light showers, embedded within this flow.  This moisture will track north/northeast this morning.  a few locations in Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties have measured a few hundredths of an inch, but nothing to write home about.  Forecasting temperatures for today will be tricky due to cloud cover.  My feeling is most locations will end up in the mid to upper 90s.

 

In the big picture, strong upper level high pressure is centered near the Arizona/New Mexico border while a weak low at the upper levels of the atmosphere is a few hundred miles west of the central coast.  This is creating a southwest flow which is squeezing moisture from Elida right into central California.  One batch of moisture will move through this morning followed by another round later this afternoon and evening.  If breaks occur in the overcast, isolated thunderstorms will develop over the mountain areas.  It wouldn’t be a total shock to observe an isolated thunderstorm over the valley floor later this afternoon and evening.

 

The next challenge will be a long term heat wave which begins Friday as Elida’s moisture moves out of the area.  Upper level high pressure will shift westward into Arizona and Southern California Friday and will expand northward over the weekend.  The bottom line is this will result in extremely hot weather for at least the next week.  Some models are indicating hottest locations on the valley floor this weekend could hit 110.

 

The high is projected to shift further north over the Great Basin next week.  The flow aloft will be out of the south, creating the chance for minimal amounts of monsoon moisture to move northward with occasional mid and high level clouds and isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the high Sierra.

 

Forecast:  Variable cloudiness through late this evening.  Clearing late tonight.  mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday and hot.  Mostly clear with occasional cloudiness and extremely hot Saturday through Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 96/73/105/74/107 Reedley 96/72/105/74/108 Dinuba 95/72/104/72/107
Porterville 96/73/106/74/108 Lindsay 96/72/105/73/107 Delano 96/74/106/76/109
Bakersfield 95/81/107/82/109 Taft 96/81/106/82/107 Arvin 97/75/106/78/110
Lamont 96/77/106/78/109 Pixley 97/73/105/74/108 Tulare 96/72/104/74/106
Woodlake 96/73/105/74/107 Hanford 97/74/105/76/108 Orosi 96/73/104/75/107

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Mostly clear

72/104

Monday

Mostly clear

72/105

Tuesday

Mostly clear

74/106

Wednesday

Mostly clear

74/107

Thursday

Mostly clear

73/106

 

Two Week Outlook:  August 20 through August 26:  This model indicates upper level high pressure over the desert southwest will be the more dominant feature, resulting in at least marginally above average temperatures.  The monsoon is still nowhere to be found, so dry dusty conditions will continue.

 

August:  Typically, especially this time of year, long range outlooks by NOAA reflect the global warming madness.  This model indicates above average temperatures and largely dry conditions.

 

August, September, October:  Just like the 30 day outlook, this longer range outlook reflects above average temperatures everywhere, including California.  This model does not reflect either above or below average precipitation, although as we head into September, we will have to keep a closer eye on the tropics.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds through Sunday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH afternoons and evenings and 3 to 6 MPH nights and early mornings with periods of near calm conditions.

  

Rain Discussion: Doppler radar is indicating scattered sprinkles and isolated light showers as far north as the Kern/Tulare County line.  This activity is moving north/northeast at around 35 MPH.  the remnants of Elida will move through today through the evening hours.  There appears to be two batches of moisture.  The first, which is moving into the valley at this hour.  The second will arrive later this afternoon through the late evening hours.  It is possible isolated locations could pick up a few hundredths of an inch. If we observe breaks in the cloud cover this afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop over the mountain areas and possibly even the Coast Range.  An isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out later this afternoon and evening.  Even so, the chance of measurable rain at any given location remains low.  The moisture will be out of the region by late tonight.  monsoon moisture will move northward beginning Sunday and through much of next week through central California for daily chances of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada with only periods of mid and high level clouds over the valley floor.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s.  Kern: Mid to upper 50s.  Humidity values ranging from 30%/55% at Visalia.  Bakersfield 25%/50%

Actual Humidity range August 12, 2020: Delano, 68%/24%, Porterville, 76%/26%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 80%.  Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.84, Parlier 1.83, Blackwell Corner 2.12, Arvin NA, Orange Cove 1.96, Porterville 1.83, Delano 1.76. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 81, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 80, Orange Cove 85, Porterville 77, Delano 76

Record Temperatures: 112/53. Average Temperatures: 98/64

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1353 +264

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for August so far: 80.6 +1.5

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or 7.63 or -3.69.  Month to Date: .00 -.00

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  7.20, or +.84.  Month to Date: .00 -.01

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:16, Sunset: 7:50 pm. Hours of Daylight:  13:37

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 / 102 /  62 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 / 103 /  60 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 102 /  71 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 103 /  63 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 104 /  63 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 102 /  74 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  99 /  64 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1700 / 100 /  68 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 / 101 /  65 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  98 /  63 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    8.35    61   18.37   134    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.94    54   13.35   104    12.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    9.54    78   13.27   109    12.20    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    6.02    51   11.42    97    11.75    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    7.63    67   11.85   105    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    6.62    67    9.50    96     9.91    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.20   113    7.80   123     6.36     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    2.25    46    8.47   173     4.89     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    9.18    73   13.80   109    12.64    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   11.37    91   14.88   119    12.47    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   10.61    77   15.68   114    13.79    13.95

 

Next report: August 14/morning