August 15, 2020
Summary: Temperatures yesterday afternoon generally ranged from 104 to 108. Most locations this afternoon will tack on a degree or two. There is a bit of a wild card, however. Models are picking up on a weak upper air feature over southern California which will be moving northward into central California this afternoon and evening. These same models are indicating the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountain areas with variable clouds over the valley. A couple of models indicate isolated storms may spill over into Kern County as the southerly flow steers these storms over the south valley floor. The chance of rain at any given location is still quite small, but worth mentioning.
The main weather story will continue to be the intense heat. At this hour, the center of upper level high pressure is over Arizona. Models show the center drifting to the north, centering over Utah by Sunday night and Monday. This means California will be on the western side of the high and underneath a southerly flow aloft. Any monsoon moisture will be carried into southern and central California for a daily chance of isolated to scattered thunderstorms up and down the Sierra Nevada with possibly even an isolated cell or two over the Kern County mountains and deserts.
Extremely hot weather will continue through at least Thursday of next week. If medium range models are accurate, there will be little relief through next weekend.
Forecast: Partly cloudy this morning. variable cloudiness and hot this afternoon and evening with a slight chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms through late this evening, mainly in Kern County. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy and continued very hot Sunday through Thursday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday night through Saturday and continued very hot.
Short Term:
| Madera 107/76/107/77/108 | Reedley 108/77/108/78/108 | Dinuba 106/74/106/75/107 |
| Porterville 108/76/107/76/108 | Lindsay 107/74/107/75/108 | Delano 108/78/107/78/107 |
| Bakersfield 108/84/107/83/108 | Taft 106/86/106/85/106 | Arvin 110/79/109/79/109 |
| Lamont 110/80/109/80/107 | Pixley 107/76/107/77/107 | Tulare 106/74/106/75/107 |
| Woodlake 106/75/106/76/108 | Hanford 107/78/107/76/108 | Orosi 106/75/106/76/107 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 75/107 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 75/105 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 73/104 |
Friday
Mostly clear 71/103 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 72/104 |
Two Week Outlook: August 22 through August 28: This model indicates upper level high pressure over the desert southwest will be the more dominant feature, resulting in at least marginally above average temperatures. The monsoon is still nowhere to be found, so dry dusty conditions will continue.
August: Typically, especially this time of year, long range outlooks by NOAA reflect the global warming madness. This model indicates above average temperatures and largely dry conditions.
August, September, October: Just like the 30 day outlook, this longer range outlook reflects above average temperatures everywhere, including California. This model does not reflect either above or below average precipitation, although as we head into September, we will have to keep a closer eye on the tropics.
Winds Discussion: Winds through Tuesday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH afternoons and evenings and 3 to 6 MPH nights and early mornings with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Of interest this morning is a weak upper air feature moving through southern California. It’s caught up in the current southerly flow aloft. Models vary a great deal, however some are indicating scattered thunderstorms will break out over the Sierra and the Kern County mountains this afternoon and evening with an isolated cell or two possibly breaking out over the Coast Range. With a weak upper low above central California, it’s possible that isolated storms moving off the Kern County mountains could be sustained out over the valley floor in Kern County later this afternoon and evening. This is reflected in a small chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms in the forecast from around 2:00 this afternoon through the late evening hours. Otherwise, dry weather will continue Sunday and beyond. However, with a persistent southerly flow aloft, monsoon moisture will move into central California from time to time for daily chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Sierra Nevada and occasional periods of mid and high clouds over the valley floor.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 60s. Kern: Upper 50s to the lower 60s.
Actual Humidity range August 14, 2020: Delano, 73%/22%, Porterville, 88%/26%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.77, Parlier 1.75, Blackwell Corner 2.00, Arvin NA, Orange Cove 1.89, Porterville 1.79, Delano 1.76. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 81, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 80, Orange Cove 85, Porterville 78, Delano 77
Record Temperatures: 109/53. Average Temperatures: 97/63
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1392 +275
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for August so far: 81.2 +2.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or -. 7.63 or -3.69. Month to Date: .T -.00
Since Oct 1, 2019, Fresno, 7.63 -3.69. 7.20, or +.84. Bakersfield, 7.20 +.84. Month to Date: .T -.01
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:17, Sunset: 7:49 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:32
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 105 / 72 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 105 / 72 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 106 / 75 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 105 / 69 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 108 / 69 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 105 / 77 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 103 / 69 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 104 / 71 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 103 / 75 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 8.35 61 18.37 134 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.94 54 13.35 104 12.84 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.54 78 13.27 109 12.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 6.02 51 11.42 97 11.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 7.63 67 11.85 105 11.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 6.62 67 9.50 96 9.91 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.20 113 7.80 123 6.36 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 2.25 46 8.47 173 4.91 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 9.18 73 13.80 109 12.65 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.45 92 14.88 119 12.48 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.61 77 15.68 114 13.80 13.95
Next report: August 17/morning