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Forecast

August 26, 2020/report

August 26, 2020

Summary:  Little day to day change can be expected for at least the next week as a fairly typical late summer pattern continues.  Strong upper level high pressure remains over the Desert Southwest westward into southern California while a weak trough of low pressure lingers along the northern and central coast.  The winds aloft sandwiched between these two systems will continue to be out of the southwest, meaning any moisture from the monsoon will remain well south and east of central California.  The latest sounding at Fort Ord indicates the marine layer is still about 1,800 feet.  A shallow intrusion of sea breeze continues to move through the Delta.  Winds at Travis Air Force Base are out of the southwest sustained at 21 MPH and gusting to 24.  However, like yesterday, winds through Pacheco Pass are near calm.

 

That weak trough off the northern California coast will be enough to maintain near average temperatures.  We may see a slight bump up of temperatures over the weekend as that high to our southeast tries to slide in further west.

 

There’s nothing on medium range models to really project a change in the overall pattern through at least the end of next week.

 

Forecast:  Mostly clear skies through Saturday night. Mostly clear Sunday through Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 96/65/95/64/97 Reedley 97/66/96/65/98 Dinuba 96/64/95/64/97
Porterville 98/67/97/66/99 Lindsay 98/65/97/64/98 Delano 98/67/97/66/99
Bakersfield 98/73/97/73/100 Taft 98/74/97/73/99 Arvin 100/68/98/67/100
Lamont 99/69/98/68/100 Pixley 98/67/98/65/99 Tulare 96/64/95/64/98
Woodlake 96/64/96/63/98 Hanford 97/67/96/65/99 Orosi 96/64/96/63/98

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Mostly clear

65/99

Sunday

Mostly clear

63/99

Monday

Mostly clear

63/98

Tuesday

Mostly clear

65/100

Wednesday

Mostly clear

66/101

 

Two Week Outlook:  September 2 through September 8:  This model indicates a dominant ridge of high pressure will be along the west coast for, what else, above average temperatures.  The flow aloft is projected to be mainly southwesterly for dry conditions.

 

September:  This model is indicating basically the western half of the United States will have above average temperatures, continuing the trend of the summer season into the early fall.  This model shows near average precipitation, which is minimal at best anyway.

 

September, October, November:  This model always indicates above average temperatures for the western U.S. and this time around is no exception.  As we head into the autumn season this model is indicating there will be equal chances of above or below precipitation.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds through Saturday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH afternoons and evenings and 3 to 6 MPH nights and early mornings with periods of near calm conditions.

  

Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 60s.  Kern: Upper 50s to the lower 60s.

Actual Humidity range August 25, 2020: Delano, 96%/32%, Porterville, 77%/34%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 70%.  Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 70%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.55, Parlier 1.40, Blackwell Corner 1.63, Arvin NA, Orange Cove 1.57, Porterville 1.43, Delano 1.45. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 78, Parlier 81, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 80, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 79, Delano 77

Record Temperatures: 108/52. Average Temperatures: 96/62

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1631 +372

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for August so far: 83.4 +4.9

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or -.  7.63 or -3.69.  Month to Date: .T -.01

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Fresno, 7.63 -3.69. 7.20, or +.84.  Bakersfield, 7.20 +.82. Month to Date: .T -.03

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:26, Sunset: 7:33 pm. Hours of Daylight:  13:09

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  95 /  70 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  97 /  68 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  99 /  74 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  99 /  72 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 102 /  70 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 101 /  75 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  97 /  70 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1645 /  97 /  71 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 / 100 /  69 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    8.35    61   18.37   133    13.77    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.94    54   13.35   104    12.85    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    9.54    78   13.27   109    12.20    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    6.02    51   11.42    97    11.76    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    7.63    67   11.85   105    11.33    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    6.62    67    9.50    96     9.92    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.20   113    7.80   122     6.38     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    2.25    45    8.47   171     4.96     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    9.18    73   13.80   109    12.66    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   11.47    92   14.88   119    12.53    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   10.66    77   15.68   114    13.80    13.95

 

Next report: August 27/morning