Our thoughts and prayers are with those affected by the wildfires.
September 16, 2020
Summary: Thick smoke continues to choke the valley this morning. the only location reporting a reasonably decent visibility is Lemoore with a visibility of 5 miles. Visalia and Madera are reporting just 1.5 miles, Fresno 1.75, and Porterville 2.5. we will be under the influence of high pressure located over the Desert Southwest for one more day before a low center just off the Washington/Oregon/northwest California coast begins to move slowly inland Thursday through Friday.
The bottom side of this trough will begin to drag remnants of Tropical Storm Karina as it becomes a depression today and drifts slowly southwestward well off the Baja coastline. The southwesterly winds aloft will move mid and high level moisture from southwest to northeast across central California from roughly Los Angeles County on the south all the way into northern California. It still looks like we don’t have a trigger to produce rain from the cloud cover late Thursday afternoon through sometime Friday. Occasionally events like this produce a sprinkle or two, but for now we’ll keep that out of the forecast.
The low to our north will move into the northern Rockies by Sunday, allowing a flat zone of upper level high pressure to build in from the west. This high will result in a weak westerly flow aloft, hopefully improving air quality somewhat. Keep in mind, however, that there are other fires in California which also affect the valley.
Low to mid 90s can be expected today. As the low moves inland, upper 80s will greet us with just mid to upper 80s over the weekend. Temperatures will be near average for much of next week.
Forecast: Mostly clear and very hazy through Thursday morning. Mostly clear Thursday afternoon. Variable cloudiness Thursday afternoon and Friday. Mostly clear Friday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 90/56/87/63/82 | Reedley 92/57/87/63/84 | Dinuba 91/56/86/62/83 |
| Porterville 92/56/88/64/84 | Lindsay 91/55/88/64/85 | Delano 92/58/88/66/85 |
| Bakersfield 94/67/89/71/85 | Taft 92/71/88/73/84 | Arvin 94/61/88/67/87 |
| Lamont 93/62/89/68/86 | Pixley 92/57/87/63/84 | Tulare 91/56/87/62/84 |
| Woodlake 90/56/86/63/83 | Hanford 92/57/87/64/84 | Orosi 91/55/87/63/83 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 54/87 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 56/89 |
Monday
Mostly clear 57/92 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 56/89 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 56/91 |
Two Week Outlook: September 21 through September 27: This model is indicating the storm track will begin to move into the Pacific Northwest. Upper level high pressure will remain over the Desert Southwest, keeping temperatures somewhat above average with dry conditions continuing.
September: This model is indicating basically the western half of the United States will have above average temperatures, continuing the trend of the summer season into the early fall. This model shows near average precipitation, which is minimal at best anyway.
September, October, November: This model always indicates above average temperatures for the western U.S. and this time around is no exception. As we head into the autumn season this model is indicating there will be equal chances of above or below precipitation.
Winds Discussion: Winds will generally be at or less than 10 MPH through tonight with periods of near calm conditions. There will be periods of winds mainly out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 20 MPH possible Thursday through Saturday.
Rain Discussion: The remnants of Tropical Storm Karina will move from southwest to northeast over central California Thursday night through Friday. There is no trigger in the atmosphere to produce showers or thunderstorms, although past experience with these events have taught me a sprinkle or two would not be a total shock. Otherwise, expect dry weather for the next week to ten days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Actual Humidity Range September 15, 2020: Delano, 85%/37%, Porterville, 93%/30%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.10, Parlier .88, Blackwell Corner 1.13, Arvin 1.43, Orange Cove .91, Porterville .95, Delano 1.05. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 73, Parlier 74, Blackwell 87, Arvin, 76, Orange Cove 80, Porterville 74, Delano 72
Record Temperatures: 105/49. Average Temperatures: 91/59
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 1930 +446
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for September So Far: 78.0 +2.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or -. 7.63 or -3.75. Month to Date: .T -.05
Since Oct 1, 2019, Fresno, 7.63 -3.69. 7.20, or +.84. Bakersfield, 7.20 +.78. Month to Date: .T -.03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:42 Sunset: 7:04 pm Hours of Daylight: 12:21
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 91 / 59 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 88 / 56 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 92 / 63 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 92 / 57 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 91 / 59 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / M / M / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 91 / 59 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 92 / 61 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 88 / 60 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 8.35 60 18.37 133 13.86 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.94 54 13.35 103 12.92 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.54 77 13.27 108 12.32 12.50
MADERA 0.00 6.02 51 11.42 96 11.86 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 7.63 67 11.85 104 11.38 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 6.62 66 9.50 95 9.99 10.10
BAKERSFIELD M 7.20 112 7.82 122 6.42 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 2.25 45 8.48 168 5.05 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 9.18 72 13.80 109 12.70 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.47 91 14.88 118 12.61 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.66 77 15.68 113 13.86 13.95
Next report: September 17/morning