September 30, 2020
National Hot Mulled Cider Day
Summary: A massive upper high stretches from upper Canada southeastward into the Desert Southwest. The high covers the western one-third of the U.S. and the eastern Pacific Ocean off of North America while a deep trough of low pressure dominates the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. The sounding above Oakland this morning again indicated very light winds through virtually all layers of the atmosphere, indicative of a subsiding air mass. The high drove temperatures yesterday into the lower triple digit range with even a few record highs.
The high will continue to dominate our pattern through Saturday as this very amplified pattern continues. The marine layer along the coast is still very shallow with a depth of around 1,000 feet at Ford Ord.
Beginning Sunday, the high will break down over the Pacific Northwest, allowing the westerlies to break through, weakening the high over California. The result will be an increasing onshore flow early next week, eventually bringing some modified marine air into the valley and somewhat cooler air aloft. By Tuesday, most locations should be nearing seasonal averages.
A couple of models for about Friday, October 9th, are indicating the remnants of tropical storm Marie will move into northern and central California. There will be a chance of showers being helped along by a deepening trough of low pressure in the Pacific Northwest. This, of course, is a long way off, but since this is the second day in a row this has shown up, it’s worth keeping an eye on.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Friday. Mostly clear skies Friday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 98/58/98/59/97 | Reedley 99/59/98/60/98 | Dinuba 98/57/98/58/97 |
| Porterville 99/58/98/58/97 | Lindsay 99/57/98/58/97 | Delano 99/61/98/61/98 |
| Bakersfield 99/70/90/70/98 | Taft 98/74/98/73/97 | Arvin 100/63/99/63/98 |
| Lamont 99/62/98/63/97 | Pixley 98/59/98/60/98 | Tulare 97/57/97/58/98 |
| Woodlake 99/58/99/59/98 | Hanford 98/59/98/60/98 | Orosi 98/57/97/57/97 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 57/95 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 55/90 |
Monday
Mostly clear 55/90 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 54/89 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 54/89 |
Two Week Outlook: October 7 through October 13: This model is indicating a strong ridge of upper level high pressure will be over the western one-third of the U.S. for very dry conditions. Temperatures will remain above to possibly well above average.
October: This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days. The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest. This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.
October, November, December: This model reflects the influence of La Nina. It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California. Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall. Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings through the afternoons through Saturday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: A couple of longer range models are indicating remnants of brand new tropical storm Marie, which will eventually become a major hurricane, will be absorbed by a deepening trough of low pressure over the Desert Southwest and will move into northern and central California, bringing a chance of showers. This far out, of course, confidence is extremely low but since this is the second day in a row models have depicted this possibility, it might just be worth watching in the coming days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 83%/34%, Porterville, 96%/30%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.41, Parlier 1.16, Blackwell Corners 1.26, Arvin 1.42, Orange Cove 1.18, Porterville .98, Delano 1.20. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 72, Parlier 74, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 75, Orange Cove 79, Porterville 72, Delano 70
Record Temperatures: 102/43. Average Temperatures: 87/55
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2064 +487
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for September So Far: 76.6 +3.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or -. 7.63 or -3.85. Month to Date: .T -.15
Since Oct 1, 2019, Fresno, 7.63 -3.69. 7.20, or +.84. Bakersfield, 7.20 +.74. Month to Date: .T -.07
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:54 Sunset: 6:43 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:52
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 94 / 60 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 94 / 60 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 93 / 67 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 94 / 60 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 96 / 62 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 98 / 68 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 93 / 63 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / 68 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 94 / 62 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 94 / 64 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 8.35 60 18.60 133 14.03 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.94 53 13.47 103 13.08 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.54 76 13.27 106 12.48 12.50
MADERA 0.00 6.02 50 11.42 95 12.00 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 7.63 66 11.85 103 11.48 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 6.62 66 9.50 94 10.08 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.20 111 7.82 121 6.46 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 2.25 44 8.48 165 5.15 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 9.18 72 13.90 109 12.81 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.47 90 14.88 117 12.75 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.66 77 15.68 113 13.93 13.95
Next report: October 1, 2020