October 2, 2020
National Custodial Worker Day
Summary: Visibilities from northern Kings and Tulare counties northward are generally ranging from 4 to 5 miles due to the smoke. Visibilities are a little better further south. The very amplified pattern we’ve been under this week will continue through most of the weekend with temperatures ranging from 10 to 13 degrees above average. Above the valley floor, very warm conditions prevail. As of 6:00am, Sandburg at 4,100 feet was reporting 76 degrees. At Bear Peak at 8,200 feet, the temperature is a balmy 61.
Today, where the smoke is thin, readings will approach the century mark with mid 90s where the smoke layer is thicker.
The high will begin to break down over the Pacific Northwest beginning Monday. This will slowly weaken the high over California, in return a slow cooling trend will begin. Also, a benign upper low feature is projected to develop just off the central coast beginning Monday, possibly moving inland near the Bay Area Wednesday. no active weather can be expected from this feature, however we may see some high clouds at times.
Of more interest to me is the pattern for next weekend, or a week from tomorrow. For the fourth day in a row, medium range models are pointing towards a deepening trough of low pressure digging southward from the Gulf of Alaska along the west coast. This could pick up the remains of now major hurricane Marie. Marie is well southwest of Cabo San Lucas and is moving west/northwest. As Marie moves into cooler waters, it will weaken into a tropical storm Monday and a depression Tuesday. Theoretically, the remnants will get caught up in a cold front moving into California about Saturday. The same medium range models insist on a chance of showers next weekend along with much cooler weather.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Monday. Mostly clear skies Monday night through Thursday with increasing cloudiness Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 96/58/96/57/94 | Reedley 98/58/97/58/95 | Dinuba 97/57/96/57/94 |
| Porterville 99/59/98/59/95 | Lindsay 98/57/97/57/95 | Delano 99/61/98/60/95 |
| Bakersfield 99/70/97/70/96 | Taft 97/75/95/74/94 | Arvin 99/62/98/62/96 |
| Lamont 99/61/97/61/95 | Pixley 98/58/97/58/95 | Tulare 97/57/96/56/94 |
| Woodlake 98/57/97/57/94 | Hanford 97/58/96/58/95 | Orosi 97/56/96/56/94 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 56/92 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 55/92 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 54/89 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 53/87 |
Friday
Increasing clouds 53/86 |
Two Week Outlook: October 8 through October 14: This model is now showing the development of a significant trough of low pressure over and along the west coast. There is some indication temperatures will be marginally above average with a better than even chance of above average rainfall. When was the last time you heard that?
October: This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days. The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest. This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.
October, November, December: This model reflects the influence of La Nina. It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California. Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall. Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings through the afternoons through Monday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: There is definitely a trend developing for at least the possibility of showers next weekend. This is now the fourth day in a row medium range models are showing a deep trough of low pressure digging southward along the west coast from the Gulf of Alaska. To spice up the intrigue is the possibility of the remnants of major hurricane Marie getting caught up along the cold front moving into northern and central California a week from tomorrow. It’s unusual to see a trend four days in a row this far out, so it’s definitely time to keep a close eye on this pattern in the coming days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 75%/24%, Porterville, 94%/18%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.32, Parlier 1.07, Blackwell Corners 1.19, Arvin 1.43, Orange Cove 1.17, Porterville .98, Delano 1.17. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 72, Parlier 75, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 75, Orange Cove 79, Porterville 72, Delano 71
Record Temperatures: 101/40. Average Temperatures: 86/54
Heating Degree Days This Season: 0 -7
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for September So Far: 78.0 +9.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .00 -..01 Month to Date: .00 -.01
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season .00, +or- +.00. Month to date .00 +.00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:56 Sunset: 6:38 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:44
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 96 / 62 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 96 / 62 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 96 / 67 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 96 / 60 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 98 / 59 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 97 / 68 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 97 / 62 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1652 / 96 / 66 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 98 / 63 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 96 / 64 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.00 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.00 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.00 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.00 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 13.95
Next report: October 3, 2020