October 5, 2020
World Teachers Day
Summary: We continue to be under a dome of upper level high pressure, although marginal weakening is taking place due to a benign upper low roughly 500 miles to the west of the central coast. This little feature is also picking up some high clouds from rapidly weakening tropical storm Marie. Believe it or not, high clouds will be visible the next few days through the smoke and haze. This little feature will eventually track eastward Wednesday through the northern San Joaquin Valley. No active weather will be associated with this passage, however it will bring enough of an on shore flow to allow modified marine air to move into the valley, finally lowering temperatures close to average values by Thursday.
Of greatest interest, however, will be a low dropping southward out of the northeast Pacific to a position off the northern California coast by Friday. As this low moves inland Saturday and Saturday night, it will be absorbed by a stronger trough of low pressure. This will be our first chance at measurable rain at most locations since mid May. Most models show the precipitation from this event will be orographic in nature. In other words there will be a good chance of precipitation over the Sierra Nevada and the Coast Range with a rain shadow along the west side of the valley. Some models indicate that, from Kings Canyon northward along the Sierra, anywhere from one-half to one inch of precipitation will be possible with snow over the high country. This would be a huge blow to the big fires raging in the Sierra as that much rain would result in good soil moisture for the forest floor.
Medium range models for next week unfortunately show a return of high pressure and rising temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Thursday night. increasing cloudiness by late Friday through Friday night. a chance of showers Saturday and Saturday night and much cooler. Partly cloudy Sunday and Sunday night. Mostly clear Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 92/54/90/52/89 | reedley 93/55/92/53/89 | dinuba 92/53/90/52/88 |
| Porterville 93/54/92/53/90 | Lindsay 92/53/91/52/90 | Delano 94/57/92/55/90 |
| Bakersfield 95/65/93/64/91 | Taft 93/71/90/70/89 | Arvin 95/60/93/58/90 |
| Lamont 95/59/93/57/90 | Pixley 94/56/91/54/89 | Tulare 92/54/91/53/88 |
| Woodlake 93/53/92/52/89 | Hanford 93/56/92/54/90 | Orosi 92/53/91/52/88 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 51/84` |
Friday
Increasing clouds 55/82 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 55/76 |
Sunday
AM showers possible 52/73 |
Monday
Mostly clear 49/78 |
Two Week Outlook: October 12 through October 18: This model is indicating above average rain will fall over the Pacific Northwest and far northern California with a minimal chance of showers over central California. Marginally above average temperatures can be expected.
October: This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days. The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest. This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.
October, November, December: This model reflects the influence of La Nina. It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California. Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall. Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings through the afternoons through Wednesday night. Winds Thursday will be out of the west or northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts.
Rain Discussion: The trend for the chance of rain this weekend is still in play. A complex low pressure system, or I should say two low pressure systems, will move through central California more than likely Saturday afternoon through early Sunday. The first low will be absorbed by a robust trough of low pressure soaking in that energy and enhancing the chance of showers for the Sierra Nevada. There will be considerable winds aloft for this event which will create the classic valley rain shadow along the west side but will also enhance rainfall amounts for the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada. Hopefully enough precipitation will fall to turn the tides for firefighters fighting the blazes burning in the Sierra. Dry weather will return by Sunday afternoon with another dry pattern for quite possibly all of next week.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 74%/29%, Porterville, 95%/22%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.22, Parlier 1.01, Blackwell Corners 1.20, Arvin 1.43, Orange Cove 1.14, Porterville .94, Delano 1.11. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 72, Parlier 75, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 75, Orange Cove 79, Porterville 76, Delano 71
Record Temperatures: 101/40. Average Temperatures: 85/54
Heating Degree Days This Season: 0 -10
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for September So Far: 77.0 +8.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .00 -.04 Month to Date: .00 -.04
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season .00, +or- -.02. Month to date .00 -.02
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:58 Sunset: 6:35 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:38
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 98 / 56 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 96 / 56 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 95 / 67 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 95 / 59 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 97 / 57 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 94 / 65 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 94 / 60 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 71 / 63 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 94 / 62 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / M / M /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.05 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.05 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.04 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.04 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.05 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.05 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.04 13.95
Next report: October 6, 2020