October 7, 2020
Summary: Yesterday was the first time in ages most locations fell below the 90 degree mark, although just barely. This is due to a benign upper low which currently is just off shore and will move inland right over the valley this afternoon. Most of the high clouds associated with this feature have moved off to the northeast, so the main impact will be to keep temperatures in the upper 80s at most locations. Interestingly enough, the marine layer has only deepened to around 1,200 feet, so the cooling is more synoptic.
Much cooler weather is right around the corner though sadly we must take rain out of the forecast. Another weak disturbance will move through uneventfully Thursday. On Friday, that low we’ve been talking about for the last ten days will approach the northern California coast. Unfortunately, most models are now showing a split flow developing with the bulk of the energy moving into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest while the southern flank of the system splits off, forming a closed low which will move southward off shore. It will eventually park off of northern Baja.
As the main trough of low pressure moves into the western states Saturday, variable clouds and mild weather will prevail with locally gusty winds. Any precipitation will be confined to the high Sierra, and even there the chance of measurable precipitation is declining.
The trough will move into the interior west Sunday as that low sits off the Baja, California coast for a few days. It’s possible this system may move northeastward into northern and central California later next week. However, for now, models indicate that upper level high pressure will be building eastward into California by Tuesday and will govern our weather for a warming trend next week. The only wild card will be that low off the Baja coast. That’s five to seven days off, though, if it even occurs.
Forecast: Mostly clear with occasional high clouds through Friday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday afternoon. Variable cloudiness Friday night through Sunday morning and much cooler. Mostly clear Sunday afternoon through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 89/53/82/50/77 | Reedley 89/53/82/51/78 | Dinuba 88/53/81/50/77 |
| Porterville 89/54/83/51/78 | Lindsay 89/53/83/50/77 | Delano 89/56/83/52/78 |
| Bakersfield 89/62/83/58/78 | Taft 88/65/83/61/79 | Arvin 90/58/84/54/79 |
| Lamont 89/58/82/52/78 | Pixley 88/54/82/51/77 | Tulare 88/52/81/49/76 |
| Woodlake 88/53/82/50/78 | Hanford 89/54/83/51/77 | Orosi 88/53/81/49/77 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Variable clouds 51/78 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 50/79 |
Monday
Mostly clear 49/82 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 53/88 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 53/87 |
Two Week Outlook: October 14 through October 20: This model is indicating above average rain will fall over the Pacific Northwest and far northern California with a minimal chance of showers over central California. Marginally above average temperatures can be expected.
October: This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days. The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest. This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.
October, November, December: This model reflects the influence of La Nina. It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California. Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall. Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings today. Winds Thursday will be out of the west or northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts. Winds Friday through Saturday will increase out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts possible.
Rain Discussion: Sadly, I have to take the chance of rain out of the forecast for this weekend. Models are now showing a split in the atmosphere off the northern California coast, meaning the bulk of the energy from this storm will move into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. The southern portion will be pinched off, forming a closed low which will move southward off shore, eventually parking off of northern Baja. The portion of the trough which will move through central California Saturday through early Sunday will be dry. The only real blessing in all this is that temperatures will cool down at least temporarily.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 76%/32%, Porterville, 91%/22%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.16, Parlier .95, Blackwell Corners 1.11, Arvin 1.34, Orange Cove 1.05, Porterville .89, Delano 1.05. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 71, Parlier 74, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 74, Orange Cove 78, Porterville 76, Delano 70
Record Temperatures: 97/39. Average Temperatures: 84/53
Heating Degree Days This Season: 0 -12
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for September So Far: 75.5 +7.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .00 -.07 Month to Date: .00 -.07
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season .00, +or- -.03. Month to date .00 -.03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:01 Sunset: 6:31 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:33
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 90 / 57 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 87 / 59 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 89 / 65 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 89 / 57 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 92 / 56 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 91 / 65 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 88 / 59 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 89 / 58 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.09 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.08 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.05 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.04 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.07 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.06 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.08 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.07 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.06 13.95
Next report: October 8, 2020