October 8, 2020
Summary: Today is the day we finally see temperatures return to seasonal averages. Another weak disturbance will move through northern and central California today. The marine layer has jumped up to near 2,000 feet and is moving through the Delta as winds at Travis Air Force Base are out of the southwest, sustained at 20 MPH. So far, winds at Pacheco Pass are fairly light, however that will change as the day progresses. Also, we have a considerable amount of mid and high level clouds streaming in from the remnants of hurricane Marie which will also aid in the cooling trend. Expect low to mid 80s throughout the valley this afternoon.
The next feature of note is a low pressure system which has dropped to a position to roughly 500 miles west of the northern California coast. This is a system we at one time though would bring at least a chance of showers to central California, however models continue to trend towards a split flow developing with the main trough of low pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest and the southern portion pinching off as a low circulation moving southward parallel to the coast. It will eventually move into northern Baja.
All of this will allow the cooling trend to continue through the weekend as readings drop into the pleasant mid to upper 70s. The main trough will move through the western states Saturday then will approach the Rocky Mountain region by Sunday afternoon. Models continue to point towards a large high over the eastern Pacific Ocean for virtually all of next week. The high will expand westward, returning us to an all too familiar pattern of upper level high pressure governing the western one-third of the U.S. and off shore waters.
By Tuesday, temperatures will once again be pressing the 90 degree mark by Tuesday with readings generally in the upper 80s to the lower 90s for much of next week.
Forecast: Partly cloudy through tonight. variable clouds at times Friday through Saturday night. Becoming mostly clear Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 83/50/77/49/79 | Reedley 84/50/78/49/78 | Dinuba 82/49/77/48/77 |
| Porterville 84/51/78/49/79 | Lindsay 83/51/78/50/78 | Delano 84/52/77/51/79 |
| Bakersfield 85/59/78/58/78 | Taft 84/61/78/59/77 | Arvin 86/55/79/56/78 |
| Lamont 85/54/78/54/78 | Pixley 84/52/77/51/78 | Tulare 82/50/77/49/79 |
| Woodlake 83/50/77/50/78 | Hanford 84/52/78/51/79 | Orosi 83/50/77/49/77 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 48/80 |
Monday
Mostly clear 51/86 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 52/88 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 54/90 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 54/91 |
Two Week Outlook: October 14 through October 20: Forecast models give almost no hope of any precipitation during this time frame. The old familiar pattern of strong upper level high pressure will continue over the western states. Expect temperatures to remain above average.
October: This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days. The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest. This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.
October, November, December: This model reflects the influence of La Nina. It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California. Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall. Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the west or northwest later today at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts. Winds tonight through Saturday during the afternoons and evenings will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH, decreasing to generally less than 7 MPH during the night and morning hours. Winds Sunday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Air Quality Expectations: With the tremendous amount of smoke over the valley floor, it’s no surprise the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warnings:
Air quality for Fresno, Kings, Tulare, and Kern Counties is listed as unsafe for sensitive groups. Air quality in Merced and Madera Counties is listed as moderate.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 76%/25%, Porterville, 91%/20%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 40%. Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.11, Parlier .94, Blackwell Corners 1.08, Arvin 1.31, Orange Cove 1.02, Porterville .88, Delano 1.03. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 71, Parlier 74, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 74, Orange Cove 78, Porterville 76, Delano 70
Record Temperatures: 99/35. Average Temperatures: 83/53
Heating Degree Days This Season: 0 -13
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for September So Far: 75.1 +7.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .00 -.08 Month to Date: .00 -.08
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season .00, +or- -.03. Month to date .00 -.03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:01 Sunset: 6:30 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:30
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 91 / 57 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 91 / 55 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 89 / 62 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 89 / 56 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 90 / 53 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 90 / 63 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 89 / 56 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 90 / 57 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 89 / 62 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.09 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.08 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.05 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.04 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.07 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.06 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.08 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.07 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.06 13.95
Next report: October 9, 2020