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  • February 27, 2024 report February 27, 2024 Summary  The weak upper low which moved through overnight resulted in no more than a few one hundredths of an inch of…
  • February 26, 2023 report February 26, 2024 Summary  Clouds are increasing ahead of a low pressure system roughly 500 miles to the west of Los Angeles. Sprinkles or isolated…
  • February 25, 2024 report February 25, 2024 Summary  The center of circulation of upper level high pressure is over central Nevada this morning. To our west, a low pressure…
  • February 24, 2024 report February 24, 2024 Summary  Upper level high pressure will ensure a beautiful weekend with a slow warming trend as readings move into the lower 70s.…
  • February 23, 2024 report February 23, 2024 Summary  A great deal of high and mid level clouds will be streaming over the southern 2/3 of  California through tonight. However,…
Forecast

October 9, 2020/report

October 9, 2020

Summary: Low pressure is located roughly 350 miles west of the Golden Gate this morning and is moving southward parallel to the coast as it weakens.  In the meantime, a trough of low pressure is approaching the coast of the Pacific Northwest.  Satellite imagery is interesting this morning as it shows a ribbon of coastal low clouds moving through the Delta and into the lower Sacramento Valley and the extreme northern San Joaquin Valley.  This indicates there is a strong push of modified sea breeze moving inland.  Temperatures, especially from Fresno County northward today, will be hard pressed to reach the 80 degree mark today as synoptic cooling occurs due to weakening pressures aloft as well as the marine influence.  This will be a very pleasant autumn-like weekend even though variable clouds will overspread the area from the off shore low which will move into northern Baja by Saturday evening.

 

In the meantime, that trough of low pressure to our north will traverse the Pacific Northwest, moving into the Great Basin by Saturday evening.  Monday will be a transition day in the overall pattern as we slowly move into another prolonged period of dry weather as a large upper high over the eastern Pacific slowly builds inland.  During the early part of the week, the clockwise flow around the high will put us in a northwesterly flow, turning to a westerly flow by mid week.  As the high builds inland, temperatures will respond accordingly with readings possibly reaching the 90 degree mark as early as Tuesday.  For now, it appears most days after Tuesday will be in the lower 90s, about 8 to 10 degrees above average.  Even the 10  day and two week forecasts show the same old blocking high remaining with above average temperatures.  Despite this, we’re late enough in the season for the warm afternoons to turn into pleasant evenings and mornings, if you don’t mind the haze and smoke.

 

Forecast:  Mostly clear this morning.  becoming partly cloudy this afternoon.  Variable cloudiness tonight through Saturday.  partly cloudy Saturday night.  mostly clear Sunday through Friday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 78/51/78/51/81 Reedley 79/51/79/50/80 Dinuba 78/50/80/51/79
Porterville 80/51/80/50/81 Lindsay 79/51/79/49/79 Delano 81/53/81/52/80
Bakersfield 82/60/80/59/79 Taft 81/63/80/61/79 Arvin 82/56/80/55/80
Lamont 81/56/81/55/79 Pixley 80/52/80/51/80 Tulare 79/52/79/50/79
Woodlake 79//51/79/50/79 Hanford 80/54/80/53/79 Orosi 79/51/79/49/78

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Mostly clear

53/85

Tuesday

Mostly clear

54/90

Wednesday

Mostly clear

55/92

Thursday

Mostly clear

56/92

Friday

Mostly clear

56/91

 

Two Week Outlook:  October 15 through October 21:  Forecast models give almost no hope of any precipitation during this time frame.  The old familiar pattern of strong upper level high pressure will continue over the western states.  Expect temperatures to remain above average.

 

October:  This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days.  The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest.  This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.

 

October, November, December:   This model reflects the influence of La Nina.  It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California.  Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall.  Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds through Saturday evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH.  Local gusts to 25 MPH are possible, mainly along the Interstate 5 corridor.  Winds later Saturday night through Monday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH afternoons and evenings and at or less than 5 MPH nights and mornings with periods of near calm conditions.

  

Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.

 

Air Quality Expectations: With the tremendous amount of smoke over the valley floor, it’s no surprise the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warnings:

 

Today’s air quality for Tulare and Kern Counties is listed as unsafe for sensitive groups.  The rest of the growing region is listed as having moderate air quality.

 

The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com.  The option to use a specific address is available.

 

For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires

 

In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Low to mid 50s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 90%/25%, Porterville, 88%/23%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 30%.  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 30%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.10, Parlier .90, Blackwell Corners 1.07, Arvin 1.26, Orange Cove .97, Porterville .85, Delano 1.00. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 71, Parlier 74, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 74, Orange Cove 78, Porterville 76, Delano 70

Record Temperatures: 98/39. Average Temperatures: 83/52

Heating Degree Days This Season: 0 -15

Courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for September So Far: 74.4 +6.6

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno .00 -.09  Month to Date: .00 -.09

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season .00, +or- -.04.   Month to date .00 -.04

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 7:02   Sunset: 6:28 pm   Hours of Daylight:  11:28

 

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  81 /  53 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  81 /  50 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  84 /  58 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  86 /  57 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  86 /  56 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  87 /  59 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  83 /  52 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  84 /  53 /  0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.12    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.11    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.08    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.07    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.09    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.05    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.04     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.07     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.10    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.10    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.08    13.95

 

Next report: October 10, 2020