October 10, 2020
Summary: Two low pressure systems of note we are studying this morning. the first is a rapidly weakening system now off the southern California coast. The second is a much more substantial trough of low pressure currently moving through the Pacific Northwest. Showers have spread as far south as the northernmost counties of California while high clouds are spreading into north/central California and will increase over the valley as the day progresses. The combination of increasing cloud cover and a fairly robust onshore flow will keep many locations in the upper 70s today, possibly near 80 in Kern County.
As the trough shifts eastward tonight and Sunday morning into the interior west, a northwest flow will move down the valley, no doubt generating upslope clouds against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada, especially in Tulare County.
By Sunday afternoon, the surface flow will become off shore, effectively mixing out the clouds. Even so, readings only in the mid to upper 70s can be expected in the air mass behind the cold frontal passage.
The off shore flow will be brief as upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific Ocean begins to build slowly inland. Central California will be under the eastern rim of the high Monday and Tuesday. Once we get into mid week and beyond, the center of the high will be closer to the coast. Most of the models for the upcoming work week are indicating Tuesday through Friday will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. not a whole lot of change is seen through next weekend and beyond, although the GFS model is showing the development of a trough into the western U.S. about Monday of next week. Most other models, though, are showing upper level high pressure will remain dominant. Regardless of what develops, there is no rain in sight.
Forecast: Mostly clear this morning. Variable cloudiness this afternoon through the evening hours. Mostly cloudy late tonight and Sunday morning, especially in the south valley. Clearing Sunday afternoon. Mostly clear Sunday night and on through Saturday of next week.
Short Term:
| Madera 78/53/76/50/82 | Reedley 79/53/77/50/83 | Dinuba 78/52/76/50/81 |
| Porterville 79/54/75/49/83 | Lindsay 79/52/75/48/83 | Delano 80/54/76/53/83 |
| Bakersfield 81/58/77/57/83 | Taft 79/60/75/59/82 | Arvin 81/55/75/53/83 |
| Lamont 81/56/76/54/83 | Pixley 80/54/75/50/82 | Tulare 78/52/75/48/81 |
| Woodlake 78/52/75/49/82 | Hanford 79/54/75/50/82 | Orosi 78/52/75/48/82 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 53/89 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 54/91 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 54/91 |
Friday
Mostly clear 55/90 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 53/89 |
Two Week Outlook: October 17 through October 23: Forecast models give almost no hope of any precipitation during this time frame. The old familiar pattern of strong upper level high pressure will continue over the western states. Expect temperatures to remain above average.
October: This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days. The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest. This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.
October, November, December: This model reflects the influence of La Nina. It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California. Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall. Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds through late this evening will be mainly out of the northwest at around 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts, mainly along the west side and from Fresno County north. Winds Sunday through Tuesday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons and at or less than 5 MPH during the night and morning hours with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Air Quality Expectations: With the tremendous amount of smoke over the valley floor, it’s no surprise the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warnings:
Today’s air quality for the growing region is listed as moderate.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 50s to the lower 60s. Kern: Mid to upper 50s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/38%, Porterville, 88%/33%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.08, Parlier .87, Blackwell Corners 1.03, Arvin 1.22, Orange Cove .92, Porterville .83, Delano .98. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 71, Parlier 73, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 73, Orange Cove 78, Porterville 75, Delano 69
Record Temperatures: 99/42. Average Temperatures: 82/52
Heating Degree Days This Season: 0 -17
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for September So Far: 73.5 +5.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .00 -.11 Month to Date: .00 -.11
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season .00, +or- -.05. Month to date .00 -.05
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:03 Sunset: 6:27 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:26
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 78 / 51 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 80 / 49 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 79 / 56 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 81 / 51 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 81 / 51 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 82 / 56 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 80 / 50 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 80 / 51 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 77 / 52 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.13 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.13 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.09 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.08 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.11 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.05 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.05 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.08 5.18
SALINAS 0.01 0.01 8 0.00 0 0.12 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.11 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.09 13.95
Next report: October 12, 2020