October 13, 2020
Summary: Upper level high pressure is centered a few hundred miles off the central and southern California coast. At the surface, pressures are marginally higher over the Great Basin than they are off shore, generating a weak off shore flow. Temperatures this afternoon will approach the 90 degree mark in the warmest locations with similar conditions Wednesday. that weak off shore flow has suppressed the marine layer at Ford Ord down to roughly 500 feet. Winds in the Delta at last report were dead calm.
Beginning late Wednesday, the off shore high will build a ridge up into the Pacific Northwest, eventually as far north as southern British Columbia. This will allow colder air to move southeastward into the Rocky Mountain region with surface high pressure taking shape over Nevada Thursday and Friday. With increasing pressure aloft, and a stronger off shore flow, temperatures will push well into the 90s both Thursday and Friday.
Models have changed a bit on the pattern for the weekend and through the first half of next week. Some do show a developing trough approaching the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, a cut off low which yesterday was over central Baja, will drift further off shore. Models don’t know what to do with this feature with some even showing it moving inland through central and southern California later next week. In the meantime, it poses no threat of active weather and even when it does move inland, active weather at this time is not expected.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Friday. Mostly clear Friday night through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 90/52/90/54/92 | Reedley 89/51/89/53/91 | Dinuba 88/50/89/52/91 |
| Porterville 90/51/90/53/93 | Lindsay 89/49/89/52/93 | Delano 90/54/90/55/94 |
| Bakersfield 89/63/90/64/94 | Taft 88/64/89/64/93 | Arvin 89/57/89/58/95 |
| Lamont 89/57/89/58/95 | Pixley 90/53/90/55/93 | Tulare 88/50/89/52/92 |
| Woodlake 88/51/89/53/92 | Hanford 89/53/89/54/93 | Orosi 88/49/89/51/91 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 56/95 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 55/92 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 54/87 |
Monday
Mostly clear 53/83 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 50/80 |
Two Week Outlook: October 20 through October 26: Forecast models give almost no hope of any precipitation during this time frame. The old familiar pattern of strong upper level high pressure will continue over the western states. Expect temperatures to remain above average.
October: This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days. The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest. This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.
October, November, December: This model reflects the influence of La Nina. It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California. Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall. Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the afternoon will be generally at or less than 10 MPH and variable through Friday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Air Quality Expectations: With the tremendous amount of smoke over the valley floor, it’s no surprise the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warnings for October 13, 2020:
Today’s air quality for the entire growing region is listed as moderate.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 88%/32%, Porterville, 92%/34%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.03, Parlier .86, Blackwell Corners .96, Arvin 1.11, Orange Cove .86, Porterville .76, Delano .91. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 70, Parlier 72, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 72, Orange Cove 76, Porterville 74, Delano 68
Record Temperatures: 95/40. Average Temperatures: 81/51
Heating Degree Days This Season: 0 -23
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for September So Far: 72.5 +5.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .00 -.15 Month to Date: .00 -.15
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season .00, +or- -.06. Month to date .00 -.06
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:06 Sunset: 6:23 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:19
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 87 / 49 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 86 / 49 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 86 / 60 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 86 / 52 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 87 / 49 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 84 / 60 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 84 / 55 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1635 / 85 / 57 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 85 / 55 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 84 / 53 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.19 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.18 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.14 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.14 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.15 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.09 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.06 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.11 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.16 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.16 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.13 13.95
Next report: October 14, 2020