October 15, 2020
Summary: Strong upper level high pressure continues to be anchored roughly 400 miles off the central coast. At the surface, barometric pressure is roughly 5.80 millibars higher at Tonopah, NV than they are at Fresno, meaning we have an easterly flow at the surface, although it’s fairly weak. That off shore flow will strengthen somewhat as pressures rise over Nevada due to cold air moving into the Rocky Mountain region.
Downslope heating off the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains will drive temperatures into the low to mid 90s through Saturday. by Saturday evening, pressure differences between the interior and the coast will equalize, ending the off shore flow and allowing temperatures to gradually lower. Fortunately, the upper high off shore is not centered directly overhead, otherwise we could see temperatures near record territory.
Next week does look cooler than this week as the upper high off shore migrates even further out to sea and weaken pressures aloft. Also, we should get enough of an on shore flow to possibly allow some modified marine air to move down the valley after Sunday.
By midweek, with a little luck, temperatures should return to near seasonal averages, which have dropped to near 80 degrees now. Both the ten day and two week models are showing a blocking pattern continuing so we could remain dry through the end of the month.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 91/53/92/54/91 | Reedley 92/54/92/55/92 | Dinuba 90/52/92/53/90 |
| Porterville 92/54/92/55/91 | Lindsay 91/51/92/53/91 | Delano 92/58/93/59/92 |
| Bakersfield 93/65/94/66/93 | Taft 92/68/93/68/92 | Arvin 93/58/93/59/92 |
| Lamont 92/58/93/59/92 | Pixley 91/54/92/55/91 | Tulare 90/52/91/53/91 |
| Woodlake 90/52/91/53/91 | Hanford 92/55/92/56/91 | Orosi 90/52/91/53/91 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 54/90 |
Monday
Mostly clear 51/85 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 50/82 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 48/80 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 47/78 |
Two Week Outlook: October 22 through October 28: Forecast models give almost no hope of any precipitation during this time frame. The old familiar pattern of strong upper level high pressure will continue over the western states. Expect temperatures to remain above average.
October: This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days. The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest. This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.
October, November, December: This model reflects the influence of La Nina. It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California. Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall. Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the afternoon will be generally at or less than 10 MPH and variable through Sunday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Air Quality Expectations: With the tremendous amount of smoke over the valley floor, it’s no surprise the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s)s for October 15, 2020:
Today’s air quality for the entire growing region with the exception of Kern and Tulare Counties is listed as moderate.
Today’s air quality for Kern and Tulare County is listed as unsafe for sensitive groups.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 96%/27%, Porterville, 93%/27%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.09, Parlier .88, Blackwell Corners .99, Arvin 1.10, Orange Cove .89, Porterville .77, Delano .91. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 69, Parlier 71, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 72, Orange Cove 75, Porterville 73, Delano 67
Record Temperatures: 99/36. Average Temperatures: 80/50
Heating Degree Days This Season: 0 -27
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for September So Far: 72.3 +5.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .00 -.18 Month to Date: .00 -.18
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season .00, +or- -.08. Month to date .00 -.08
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:08 Sunset: 6:20 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:15
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 90 / 54 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 88 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 87 / 61 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 89 / 52 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 89 / 50 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 88 / 62 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 88 / 54 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1639 / 87 / 59 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 87 / 58 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 89 / 55 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.24 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.22 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.19 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.19 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.18 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.12 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.08 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.12 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.19 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.19 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.16 13.95
Next report: October 16, 2020