October 16, 2020
Summary: At the upper levels of the atmosphere, strong high pressure is anchored several hundred miles west of the California coast. At the surface, pressure is considerably higher over Nevada than over interior California. For example, the pressure is 9.50 millibars higher at Tonopah than they are at Fresno and 11.50 mb higher over Reno than Sacramento. This is resulting in a rather robust off shore flow. As of 6:00am at Sandburg in the Tehachapis were out of the east sustained at 23 MPH, gusting to 33MPH, resulting in extreme fire danger. These winds simply blow over the top of the San Joaquin Valley as they are blocked by a 13,000 foot wall known as the Sierra Nevada. However, the downslope effect off the Sierra does contribute to the well above average temperatures as readings will remain mostly in the low 90s through the weekend. This is about 10 to15 degrees above average. We will have to wait until Monday before temperatures slowly head south. Even though we will still be under a blocking pattern with upper level high pressure off shore, the main center of the high will be further out to sea. Also, the off shore flow will be replaced by an onshore configuration which will lower temperatures back into the 80s. Even the 80s are above average for this time of year. That is how far out of sync our pattern has been for so long. On the flip side, frost and freeze warnings were in effect as far south as Arkansas this morning.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Monday. Mostly clear skies continuing Monday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 92/53/92/54/90 | Reedley 93/54/92/55/91 | Dinuba 91/52/91/53/90 |
| Porterville 93/53/92/53/91 | Lindsay 92/52/92/52/90 | Delano 93/56/92/56/91 |
| Bakersfield 94/66/93/66/91 | Taft 92/68/92/68/91 | Arvin 94/57/93/56/91 |
| Lamont 92/54/92/54/90 | Pixley 92/53/92/54/91 | Tulare 90/52/91/53/89 |
| Woodlake 91/52/91/53/90 | Hanford 93/55/93/55/91 | Orosi 90/51/91/52/90 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 52/89 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 52/88 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 50/86 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 49/85 |
Friday
Mostly clear 48/82 |
Two Week Outlook: October 22 through October 28: Forecast models give almost no hope of any precipitation during this time frame. The old familiar pattern of strong upper level high pressure will continue over the western states. Expect temperatures to remain above average.
October: This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days. The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest. This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.
October, November, December: This model reflects the influence of La Nina. It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California. Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall. Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the afternoon will be generally at or less than 10 MPH and variable through Monday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Air Quality Expectations: With the tremendous amount of smoke over the valley floor, it’s no surprise the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s)s for October 15, 2020:
Today’s air quality for Kings and Merced County is deemed moderate.
The air quality for the rest of the growing area is listed as unhealthy for sensitive groups.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 96%/27%, Porterville, 93%/27%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.09, Parlier .90, Blackwell Corners .97, Arvin 1.10, Orange Cove .92, Porterville .78, Delano .91. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 69, Parlier 71, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 71, Orange Cove 75, Porterville 73, Delano 67
Record Temperatures: 96/36. Average Temperatures: 80/50
Heating Degree Days This Season: 0 -29
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for September So Far: 72.2 +5.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00 -.20 Month to Date: .00 -.20
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00, +or- -.09. Month to date .00 -.09
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:09 Sunset: 6:19 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:12
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 88 / 54 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 88 / 54 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 90 / 62 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 90 / 54 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 90 / 53 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 88 / 62 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 88 / 55 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / M / 61 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 89 / 57 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 86 / 58 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.26 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.24 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.21 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.21 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.20 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.13 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.09 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.13 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.21 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.21 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.18 13.95
Next report: October 17, 2020