October 26, 2020
Summary: What we call a back door cold front moved through central California overnight with no precipitation. At this hour, there are plenty of upslope clouds banked up against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and the west facing slopes of the southern Sierra Nevada, mainly in Tulare County. These clouds likely won’t last long as very dry air is pouring in from a north/northeast flow aloft. Dew points have dropped to 18 degrees at Merced, 24 at Madera, 25 at Fresno, 29 at Visalia while Porterville was still in the moist pocket with a dew point of 39, but that will change later. Winds down the center and west side of the valley are generally out of the north/northwest at 10 to 15 MPH.
The cold front is now moving rapidly through southern California while the main low center is in eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. It’s moving rapidly eastward from there. Tonight will be the coldest night of the season so far due to very low dew points. The air mass itself is not critically cold. After all, it’s only late October. Even so, many locations will fall into the mid to upper 30s tonight with lower 30s possible in those low lying cold pockets out there. Similar readings can be expected Wednesday morning with only slight moderation.
Strong winds are blowing over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada out of the north/northeast. Not exactly what you’d call ideal for those big fires.
The low will shift into the southern Midwest late tonight and Tuesday as a large high along the Pacific coast builds northward into British Columbia, continuing the north/northeast flow aloft through Tuesday. By Wednesday, the high will begin to shift into the western U.S., resulting in a warming trend. Daytime highs will be above average, however nighttime lows will still be chilly due ot a pool of dry air trapped on the valley floor.
The high will remain in place through the weekend, although some models show a weak upper low moving towards the central coast sometime this weekend. Other models, though, aren’t so sure about this. Even if it does move inland, only some mid and high clouds will be the result with a minor cooling trend.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning in Kern and eastern Tulare Counties with mostly clear skies elsewhere. Mostly clear skies this afternoon. Clear and cold tonight. mostly clear Tuesday through Friday with a warming trend. Mostly clear Friday night through Monday with occasional high clouds.
Short Term:
Madera 68/34/73/36/77 | Reedley 69/35/73/37/78 | Dinuba 67/33/71/36/77 |
Porterville 67/35/70/36/79 | Lindsay 68/34/71/36/77 | Delano 68/38/72/39/78 |
Bakersfield 68/44/73/48/77 | Taft 69/49/73/51/77 | Arvin 66/40/73/43/79 |
Lamont 67/40/73/44/78 | Pixley 68/34/72/37/78 | Tulare 67/33/71/37/77 |
Woodlake 67/33/72/36/78 | Hanford 68/36/72/38/77 | Orosi 67/32/71/35/77 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Thursday
Mostly clear 40/81 |
Friday
Mostly clear 42/80 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 43/82 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 43/79 |
Monday
Mostly clear 43/79 |
Two Week Outlook: November 2 through November 8: This model flips us back into more of an amplified pattern with high pressure over the west and a colder trough east of the Rockies. Therefore, rain appears unlikely during this period with a return to above average temperatures.
October: This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days. The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest. This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.
October, November, December: This model reflects the influence of La Nina. It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California. Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall. Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds today down the center and west side of the vally north of Kern County will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds elsewhere will be generally variable to 12 MPH. Winds tonight through Thursday will be generally less than 6 MPH during the overnight hours with periods of near calm conditions and variable to 10 MPH during the late morning through the afternoon hours.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Air Quality Expectations: With the tremendous amount of smoke over the valley floor, the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for October 24, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for the valley up to Fresno and Madera Counties. The air quality north of that line is posted as not healthy for sensitive groups.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 98%/55%, Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .97, Parlier .78, Blackwell Corners .88, Arvin .93, Orange Cove .86, Porterville .69, Delano .77. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 68, Parlier 69, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 70, Orange Cove 73, Porterville 71, Delano 64
Record Temperatures: 89/35. Average Temperatures: 75/47
Heating Degree Days This Season: 7, -60
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for September So Far: 70.7 +6.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00, -.44 Month to Date: .00, -.44
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00, +or- -.20. Month to date .00, -.20
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:18 Sunset: 6:07 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:51
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 69 / 50 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 72 / 49 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 71 / 52 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 73 / 51 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 73 / 48 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 69 / 55 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 72 / 46 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1658 / 71 / 49 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 69 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.56 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.48 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.50 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.53 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.44 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.31 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.20 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.23 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.41 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.43 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.40 13.95
Next report: October 27, 2020