October 27, 2020
Summary: Satellite imagery was quite interesting overnight. Smoke from the Creek Fire and the SQF Fire is clearly shown on satellite moving from northeast to southwest across the south valley along with some very high, thin cirrus clouds. Surface pressures are still considerably higher over the Great Basin than over the California coast. For example, barometers were 8.8 millibars higher at Reno than at Sacramento and 5.4 millibars higher at Tonopah, Nevada than at Fresno. At the upper levels of the atmosphere a rather robust northeast flow continues. It’s also chilly out there this morning. as of 6:00am, Maricopa was reporting 35 and Fowler 37. Most other ag locations were in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. So, it is possible a frog pond out there could have teased with the 32 degree mark.
The main players this morning are a very robust cold low centered near the Arizona/New Mexico border which is being pushed eastward by a rather strong upper high off the northern California coast. That high will win out with time as the off shore flow slowly weakens today and ends by later tonight, ending the wild Santa Ana wind event in southern California.
Overall, from Wednesday through Sunday night, the high will dominate our weather pattern. In fact, from Friday through Sunday, most models place the high close to central California. High temperatures this will again climb to above average, ranging in the low to mid 80s, from Wednesday on. However, the air mass now in place above the valley floor is quite dry so overnight lows will still be quite chilly, ranging in the upper 30s to the mid 40s.
A weak trough of low pressure is projected to approach the California coast about Tuesday of next week. On paper, this system is not impressive, so there is no need to add precipitation to the forecast for the immediate future.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Thursday night. mostly clear Friday through Monday night. partly cloudy Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 74/37/79/39/80 | Reedley 73/37/78/39/81 | Dinuba 71/36/78/38/79 |
| Porterville 73/37/79/39/81 | Lindsay 72/36/80/39/81 | Delano 74/40/80/42/80 |
| Bakersfield 75/47/79/49/81 | Taft 75/52/79/53/81 | Arvin 74/43/79/45/81 |
| Lamont 74/42/80/45/82 | Pixley 73/37/79/40/80 | Tulare 71/37/78/39/79 |
| Woodlake 72/36/78/39/80 | Hanford 73/38/79/41/81 | Orosi 71/35/79/38/79 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 43/82 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 44/83 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 45/83 |
Monday
Mostly clear 44/81 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 47/78 |
Two Week Outlook: November 3 through November 9: This model flips us back into more of an amplified pattern with high pressure over the west and a colder trough east of the Rockies. Therefore, rain appears unlikely during this period with a return to above average temperatures.
October: This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days. The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest. This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.
October, November, December: This model reflects the influence of La Nina. It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California. Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall. Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH and variable during the day. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Air Quality Expectations: With the tremendous amount of smoke over the valley floor, the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for October 27, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as unhealthy for sensitive groups in Kings, Tulare, and Kern Counties. The air quality for the remainder of the valley is moderate.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Mid to upper 20s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 78%/18%, Porterville, 79%/18%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .95, Parlier .73, Blackwell Corners .85, Arvin .91, Orange Cove .79, Porterville .61, Delano .75. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 67, Parlier 67, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 69, Orange Cove 72, Porterville 70, Delano 63
Record Temperatures: 89/35. Average Temperatures: 74/47
Heating Degree Days This Season: 15, -57
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for September So Far: 70.2 +5.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00, -.47 Month to Date: .00, -.47
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00, +or- -.21. Month to date .00, -.21
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:19 Sunset: 6:05 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:49
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 71 / 47 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 67 / 40 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 66 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 67 / 51 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 67 / 45 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 68 / 55 / T /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 66 / 45 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 60 / 50 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 67 / 50 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 69 / 50 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.60 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.51 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.54 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.58 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.47 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.34 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T T 0 0.00 0 0.21 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.24 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.43 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.46 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.43 13.95
Next report: October 28, 2020