Summary: Upper level high pressure is just off the northern California coast this morning. the downward motion of the atmosphere under the high has the usual warm air inversion above the valley floor. While most locations are running in the low to mid 40s this morning, the temperature at Sandburg at 4,100 feet was 63 as of 6:00am. The freezing level taken a short time ago above Oakland was 15,400 feet.
The other feature of note is a weak upper low now off the northern Baja coastline. This feature is expected to move slowly northeastward into southern California Sunday and Monday. The counterclockwise circulation around this feature will increase the off shore flow somewhat, resulting in minor warming through Monday with most locations being in the lower 80s. it’s possible a warm spot or two could reach into the mid 80s.
Also, some high clouds will get caught up in the circulation pattern, moving some high clouds into central California Sunday through Monday. Through Thursday, well above average temperatures under mostly clear skies can be anticipated.
Models continue to point towards a major pattern change beginning Friday as a robust, strong, and cold low pressure system drops southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska with the bottom side of the trough reaching into roughly the northern one-fourth of California by Friday. After Friday is where models diverge. The majority indicate the storm will drop into the Great Basin as an inside slider with a chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada. The European model this morning shows the low dropping into California which would certainly bring a decent chance of rain for the valley and snow for the mountains. For now, I believe it’s best to add a slight chance of showers to the forecast for Saturday along with much colder temperatures.
Forecast: Clear skies through tonight. Mostly clear Sunday through Monday with occasional mid and high level clouds. Mostly clear Monday night through Thursday night. increasing cloudiness late Friday. Variable cloudiness Friday night and Saturday with a slight chance of showers Saturday and much cooler.
Short Term:
| Madera 81/41/82/42/83 | Reedley 81/40/82/42/83 | Dinuba 80/40/81/42/82 |
| Porterville 81/41/82/43/83 | Lindsay 81/39/81/41/83 | Delano 81/42/82/43/84 |
| Bakersfield 82/54/83/55/83 | Taft 81/58/82/58/84 | Arvin 82/47/82/48/84 |
| Lamont 82/47/82/49/83 | Pixley 81/41/82/43/83 | Tulare 80/40/81/42/82 |
| Woodlake 80/41/81/43/82 | Hanford 81/42/82/44/83 | Orosi 80/40/81/42/82 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 44/83 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 44/81 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 45/80 |
Friday
Increasing clouds 46/75 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 40/62 |
Two Week Outlook: November 6 through November 12: This model is actually indicating possible changes on the horizon as a cold trough of low pressure digs southward into the western U.S. For the first time since I can remember, below average temperatures are indicated along with a better than even chance of rain.
October: This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days. The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest. This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.
October, November, December: This model reflects the influence of La Nina. It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California. Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall. Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH and variable during the day. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday.
Rain Discussion: A major shift in the pattern will begin Friday. What appears to be a rather robust low pressure system will move out of the Gulf of Alaska. The majority of medium range models show the best dynamics moving into the Great Basin Saturday. the European model, however, shows the system dropping right into California. If this solution has credence, there would be a decent chance of rain in the valley and snow in the mountains. Since the majority keep the precipitation to our east, I do feel just a small chance of showers for Saturday is warranted in the forecast. After Saturday, the pattern will be active over the west, however most of the energy will continue to move into the Great Basin and Rocky Mountains.
Air Quality Expectations: With the tremendous amount of smoke over the valley floor, the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for October 31, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for the entire valley with the exception of Kings County. The air quality in Kings County is deemed unhealthy for sensitive groups.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/24%, Porterville, 88%/19%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .79, Parlier .67, Blackwell Corners .77, Arvin .84, Orange Cove .76, Porterville .67, Delano .70. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 65, Parlier 63, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 66, Orange Cove 69, Porterville 66, Delano 59
Record Temperatures: 90/32. Average Temperatures: 72/45
Heating Degree Days This Season: 40, -58
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for October So Far: 68.6 +4.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00, -.60 Month to Date: .00, -.60
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00, +or- -.28. Month to date .00, -.28
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:23 am Sunset: 5:01 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:40
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 80 / 39 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 80 / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 80 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 81 / 39 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 82 / 41 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 79 / 49 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 79 / 44 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 81 / 49 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 80 / 43 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 79 / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.77 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.64 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.75 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.81 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.60 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.47 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.28 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.29 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.55 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.59 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.56 13.95
Next report: November 2, 2020